US labor market figures weaker than expected as Fed mulls interest rate cut | US unemployment and employment data

The U.S. labor market appears weaker than initially thought, according to official figures released Wednesday.

The United States created 818,000 fewer jobs than expected in the 12 months to the end of March, a decline of 0.5%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' quarterly census of employment and payrolls.

The revision is in line with economists' forecasts but still suggests that hiring has not been as brisk as official figures had initially shown. The figures show that employers have been adding about 174,000 jobs per month, a brisk pace but 28% below the previously reported rate of about 242,000 jobs.

The news comes as the Federal Reserve is considering a cut to its benchmark interest rate, the first since March 2020. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has signaled that the central bank is inclined to cut rates after raising them to curb inflation.

The minutes of the Fed's July meeting were released Wednesday. The vast majority of participants observed that if the data continued to come in line with expectations, it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting, according to the minutes.

Powell will update his views on Friday at the annual central bank meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

The news also comes at a time when the economy is a top priority for voters. Incumbent President Joe Biden has received poor marks from voters for his handling of the economy despite a remarkable recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. While inflation is easing, voters remain unhappy about prices.

Since Joe Biden took office, some 16 million jobs have been created and the average unemployment rate has remained lower than under any administration in 50 years. But Republicans were quick to seize on this announcement.

This is the largest downward revision to employment figures in 15 years, @RNCResearch reported on X (formerly Twitter). The 0.5% revision is the largest since 2009.

The largest downward revision was in professional and business services, which added 358,000 fewer jobs than expected. In other sectors, leisure and hospitality saw job creation fall by 150,000, manufacturing lost 115,000 jobs and trade, transportation and utilities saw job creation fall by 104,000.

Nonfarm payroll growth from April 2023 to March 2024 looks weaker than expected, but not worrisomely so. This supports our view that when the Fed cuts interest rates, it will do so within 25 bps. [basis points] additional measures, rather than a deeper 50bp cut, Olivia Cross, North America economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note to investors.

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