UK exports expected to lose $22 billion due to Trump tariffs

Trump's aggressive promises may be a negotiating tactic, but “the possibility of these tariffs being imposed certainly exists,” researcher Nicolo Tamberi said in an external blog post.

Key UK sectors likely to be hit include fishing, oil and mining, which could see exports fall by around a fifth.

Pharmaceutical and electrical sectors will also be hit.

Even non-exporters may be affected.

For example, businesses providing transport services that rely on strong trade flows will be hit hard.

Insurance and financial services also support basic product trading.

However, some sectors could benefit from a decline in Chinese exports to the United States.

If Chinese exports are hit by much higher Trump tariffs, textiles and clothing could benefit from reduced competition.

It is unclear how drastic the border tax increases will be under Donald Trump. Some diplomats pointed to more practical proposals for tariff relief for U.S. allies.

However, President Trump's top trade adviser, former U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Robert Lighthizer, strongly supports this tactic.

Foreign Secretary David Lammy recently told the BBC's Newscast podcast: “It’s about pursuing public policy in relation to some of the issues raised by China.”

However, Lord Darruck, the British ambassador to the US during the former Trump administration, warned that Britain should not underestimate the risks.

“I’m a pessimist,” he told BBC Newsnight on Thursday. “Trump put tariffs on steel and aluminum during his first term. He wants to impose much bigger tariffs this time. He believes it. That's not bluff. I think he will do it.”

Prime Minister Rachel Reeves and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey have both said they will continue to make the case for free trade.

Britain may be in a position to choose whether to cut off side deals with the Trump White House to avoid tariffs.

Alternatively, the UK could work with other Western and European allies to send a clear message to Trump and the US Congress that US exporters would also be hit hard by such policies.

CITP figures only assume global tariffs by the United States and do not assume possible trade retaliation from Europe or Asia.

The IMF recently warned that a major trade war would lead to rising inflation and a 7% contraction in the global economy, effectively the size of the economies of France and Germany combined.

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