US inflation rise gets tougher in the last mile

(Bloomberg) — U.S. inflation likely moved sideways, at best, in October, underscoring the uneven trajectory of easing price pressures in the final stretch toward the Federal Reserve's target.

Most read on Bloomberg

The core consumer price index due Wednesday, which excludes food and energy, likely rose at the same rate on a monthly and annual basis compared to September's figures.

The headline CPI likely rose 0.2% for a fourth month, while the year-over-year measure is expected to accelerate for the first time since March.

The October CPI report will likely support the idea that the last mile of returning inflation to target will be the hardest, Wells Fargo & Co. economists Sarah House and Aubrey Woessner wrote in a report. Excluding the more volatile energy and food components, the correction of price distortions that occurred during the pandemic has proven extremely slow.

They added that prices for basic goods likely rose again in October, in part because of increased demand for cars and auto parts after Hurricanes Helene and Milton. Evacuation orders following the storms also forced more people to stay in hotels, continuing a glacial slowdown in service prices.

What Bloomberg Economics says:

We expect the CPI and PPI to be very dynamic, pushing long-term rates even higher and further dampening the economy over the next couple of months. We expect the comparison group's retail sales to slow and the unemployment rate to continue to rise, reaching 4.5% by the end of the year.

Anna Wong, Stuart Paul, Eliza Winger, Estelle Ou and Chris G. Collins. For a full analysis, click here

Even so, the story is very consistent, with inflation continuing to fall on a bumpy path, and one or two bad reports won't change that trend, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Thursday after the bank Central Bank cut interest rates by a quarter of a point.

The U.S. government will also release wholesale inflation figures next week, which has likely recovered after stagnating in September. At the same time, profit growth, which continues to outpace inflation, likely contributed to another decent rise in retail sales, according to data due Friday.

On Tuesday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller is scheduled to speak at a banking conference before the central bank releases its latest opinion survey of lending officers. Powell is scheduled for an event later in the week, while New York Fed President John Williams and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan are also on the calendar.

The story continues

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said Sunday that the U.S. economy has remained remarkably strong as the central bank makes progress in the fight against inflation, but that the Fed is not yet on the path to back.

In Canada, meanwhile, home sales data for October will reveal whether central bank rate cuts are starting to shake up the sluggish housing market.

A data-heavy week elsewhere includes a raft of economic figures from China, wage and growth statistics from the UK, and multiple inflation figures from India to Argentina. New forecasts from the European Union will also be published.

Click here to find out what happened last week and below is our overview of what's happening in the global economy.

Asia

A burst of data from China could show that the economy's performance improved slightly in October, with industrial production, fixed asset investment and retail sales all seeing a slight recovery as the slowdown in real estate investment has eased.

Still, the data will underline the need for the broad stimulus measures undertaken since late September as President Xi Jinping seeks to achieve his growth targets.

A slew of Chinese figures comes at the end of the week, the same day Japan is expected to announce that its economic growth slowed to an annualized rate of 0.6% quarter on quarter in the three months through September.

Inflation in India is expected to have risen to 5.72% in October, while industrial production is expected to rebound in September, according to figures due on Tuesday.

Australia will receive consumer and business confidence surveys on Tuesday before releasing a number of labor market statistics later in the week.

The wage price index for the third quarter will be released on Wednesday and other employment statistics for October will be released a day later. Indonesia releases trade data on Friday.

Among central banks, the Bank of Japan is releasing a summary of views from its October meeting, where it kept rates steady, and Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock appears in Thursday's panel, while his policy colleague Brad Jones did the same a day later. .

Europe, Middle East, Africa

The UK will be the center of attention after the Bank of England cuts rates on Thursday, accompanied by a warning about the inflationary impact of the recent budget. Gov. Andrew Bailey is scheduled to deliver a speech Thursday.

Wages figures released Tuesday may show a slight slowdown in wage growth, providing limited assurance to policymakers. A statement released Friday will likely reveal that economic growth weakened in the third quarter, to 0.2% from 0.5% in the previous three months, economists said.

Other countries with initial GDP figures for the same period include Poland on Thursday and Switzerland on Friday.

Turning to the euro zone, Germany's ZEW index on Tuesday will offer a snapshot of investor sentiment at a time when Europe's largest economy is still struggling to shake off industrial malaise and now also faces the prospect of elections anticipated.

Eurozone industrial production will reveal the state of the manufacturing sector at the end of the third quarter on Wednesday, and a second estimate of GDP will arrive simultaneously. The European Commission in Brussels will publish new economic forecasts for the region at the end of the week.

The European Central Bank will release minutes of its October meeting on Thursday, possibly including guidance on which officials are considering their December decision. Vice President Luis de Guindos, who spoke the same day in Madrid, is among the officials expected to appear.

In an interview published on Sunday, Austria's Robert Holzmann, one of the ECB's most hawkish policymakers, said a decision next month was possible but by no means guaranteed.

In Sweden, the minutes of the Riksbank's decision to accelerate its easing with a half-point rate cut will be expected on Wednesday, followed by its financial stability report a day later.

In Russia, data on Wednesday will likely show the economy contracted in the third quarter for the first time since war-related fiscal stimulus began boosting activity in late 2022. Bloomberg Economics forecasts that the GDP will have fallen by 0.3% to 0.5% over the three months. until September.

Russia is one of several countries publishing inflation data. Here is an overview:

Norway could see a notable slowdown in inflation on Monday, to 2.4%. But with crown weakness worrying officials, the central bank kept borrowing costs unchanged on Thursday, signaling it does not foresee an imminent reduction.

With Russia's October release due Wednesday, policymakers will be watching to see whether a 200 basis point rate increase last month will help slow price growth toward its 4% target. In September it was 8.6%.

Nigeria's inflation figures are expected to accelerate to 33.4 percent from 32.7 percent on Friday after gasoline prices rose due to subsidy cuts, according to Bloomberg Economics.

The same day in Israel, data will likely reveal that price growth remained above 3%, the upper limit of the official target. It has been above target for three consecutive months, as conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon send government defense spending soaring and worsen supply-side constraints.

Meanwhile, Egyptian inflation data released on Sunday showed the indicator accelerated slightly for a third month, driven by a sharp rise in fuel prices.

Among central banks, Zambia's monetary policymakers are expected to leave their rate unchanged at 13.5% to support the drought-stricken economy. The ordeal prompted the International Monetary Fund to cut its growth projections for 2024 by almost half, to 1.2%.

Latin America

Argentine President Javier Milei is expected to receive some good news with October's consumer price report. Monthly inflation may have slowed to a three-year low of just below 3%, with the annual figure below 200%, down from April's peak of 289.4%.

Analysts expect a firmer tone in the minutes of the Brazilian central bank's November 6 decision to raise its interest rate to 11.25%. At the same time, forward guidance may be scarce given that the Brazilian government has not yet committed to spending cuts and there are all the inherent inaccuracies following the US elections.

Economists expect a hike of at least the same magnitude at the BCB's December meeting, and many have revised upward their terminal rate projections to 13% or higher.

Uruguay's central bank has kept its benchmark rate at 8.5% since April and is expected to maintain it for a fifth consecutive meeting.

In Peru, labor market figures from Lima and GDP proxy data for September are available, both highlighting the economy's rebound from last year's recession.

Banco de Mexico's case for a third straight rate cut on Nov. 14 seemed simple enough a month ago, but a new, faster surge in inflation is making the decision slightly more difficult.

Still, the combination of slower growth and 21 straight months of slowing core inflation will likely lead Gov. Victoria Rodriguez and her colleagues to continue the reduction to 10.25%.

–With help from Brian Fowler, Laura Dhillon Kane, Monique Vanek, Robert Jameson, Paul Wallace and Piotr Skolimowski.

(Updates with Kashkari in ninth paragraph)

Most read from Bloomberg Businessweek

2024 Bloomberg LP

What Are The Main Benefits Of Comparing Car Insurance Quotes Online

LOS ANGELES, CA / ACCESSWIRE / June 24, 2020, / Compare-autoinsurance.Org has launched a new blog post that presents the main benefits of comparing multiple car insurance quotes. For more info and free online quotes, please visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/the-advantages-of-comparing-prices-with-car-insurance-quotes-online/ The modern society has numerous technological advantages. One important advantage is the speed at which information is sent and received. With the help of the internet, the shopping habits of many persons have drastically changed. The car insurance industry hasn't remained untouched by these changes. On the internet, drivers can compare insurance prices and find out which sellers have the best offers. View photos The advantages of comparing online car insurance quotes are the following: Online quotes can be obtained from anywhere and at any time. Unlike physical insurance agencies, websites don't have a specific schedule and they are available at any time. Drivers that have busy working schedules, can compare quotes from anywhere and at any time, even at midnight. Multiple choices. Almost all insurance providers, no matter if they are well-known brands or just local insurers, have an online presence. Online quotes will allow policyholders the chance to discover multiple insurance companies and check their prices. Drivers are no longer required to get quotes from just a few known insurance companies. Also, local and regional insurers can provide lower insurance rates for the same services. Accurate insurance estimates. Online quotes can only be accurate if the customers provide accurate and real info about their car models and driving history. Lying about past driving incidents can make the price estimates to be lower, but when dealing with an insurance company lying to them is useless. Usually, insurance companies will do research about a potential customer before granting him coverage. Online quotes can be sorted easily. Although drivers are recommended to not choose a policy just based on its price, drivers can easily sort quotes by insurance price. Using brokerage websites will allow drivers to get quotes from multiple insurers, thus making the comparison faster and easier. For additional info, money-saving tips, and free car insurance quotes, visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ Compare-autoinsurance.Org is an online provider of life, home, health, and auto insurance quotes. This website is unique because it does not simply stick to one kind of insurance provider, but brings the clients the best deals from many different online insurance carriers. In this way, clients have access to offers from multiple carriers all in one place: this website. On this site, customers have access to quotes for insurance plans from various agencies, such as local or nationwide agencies, brand names insurance companies, etc. "Online quotes can easily help drivers obtain better car insurance deals. All they have to do is to complete an online form with accurate and real info, then compare prices", said Russell Rabichev, Marketing Director of Internet Marketing Company. CONTACT: Company Name: Internet Marketing CompanyPerson for contact Name: Gurgu CPhone Number: (818) 359-3898Email: cgurgu@internetmarketingcompany.BizWebsite: https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ SOURCE: Compare-autoinsurance.Org View source version on accesswire.Com:https://www.Accesswire.Com/595055/What-Are-The-Main-Benefits-Of-Comparing-Car-Insurance-Quotes-Online View photos