Will China intervene if Trump steps back on climate change?

BBC

The WhatsApp message came from the chief negotiator of one of the most powerful countries present at the COP on climate. Can I come by for a chat, he asked.

As his team hunched over computers eating takeout pizza, he grew angry at the obstructionist behavior of many of the other teams at the conference.

So far, it's completely normal. Others had repeated all week that it was the worst COP of all time; that the negotiating texts, supposed to shrink as deadlines approached, were in fact swelling; that the COP in its current form could be dead in the water

Hanging over all of this was the prospect of US President-elect Donald Trump withdrawing the US from the COP process when he takes office for the second time. He called climate action a scam and, during his victory celebration in West Palm Beach earlier this month, pledged to increase U.S. oil production beyond its current record levels, declaring: “ We have more liquid gold than any country in the world.

But there is one positive point: China.

This is the only positive point in all this, the chief negotiator told me. Not only was the negotiating style significantly different from previous years, but he also observed that, as he put it, China could take a step forward.

Another sign that this might be the case came early in the conference, when China made details of its climate financing public. Traditionally, China has released little information about its climate policies and plans. So it came as a surprise when, for the first time, officials reported giving developing countries more than $24 billion for climate action since 2016.

This is serious money, almost no one else is at this level, a COP insider told me.

This is a remarkable signal, says Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub, because it is the first time the Chinese government has presented a clear figure for the amount of its aid.

If these are indeed signs that China plans to play a more central role in the future, just as the United States is backing down, it would mark a tectonic shift in the COP process.

What could this tectonic shift look like?

Historically, it has been Western countries, particularly the United States and the European Union, that have provided the momentum, encouraged by smaller, climate-vulnerable nations. The difference in how negotiations proceed if China moves forward will be marked.

Jonathan Pershing, director of the environment program at the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, has attended every COP and understands better than most the back-and-forth exchanges, bullying and brinkmanship that go on behind the scenes and make or break deals at the conference. summits. He says China will not lead from the front, like the United States and Europe.

They are more careful players than that. They may be leading with Chinese characteristics, that's what they themselves could say.

(This echoes how Deng Xiaoping, president of the early 1980s, described his economic reforms, which catapulted the country's economic growth into double digits: socialism with Chinese characteristics.)

Pershing suggests that China will likely help move the COP process forward by quietly intervening to break the deadlock. Most of these efforts will take place behind closed doors, he believes, but developing and developed countries will likely need to be pushed to increase their ambitions and cash flows.

However, China may not be entirely helpful in the face of some challenges that slow down the process, such as cases where countries use the COP as a stage to advance their own interests.

One of the main obstacles to Baku would be Saudi Arabia, which leads a group of fossil fuel-producing countries that want to slow the transition to renewable energy. As a large consumer of fossil fuels, China has often provided support to these countries in the past, for example by resisting the UK's efforts to secure a deal on phasing out coal at COP26 in Glasgow .

A new “unusually cooperative” style

There have been other occasions during this year's negotiations that indicate how China's approach is already changing.

In the past, it tended to focus on its own interests and, as such, it played a dual role in these negotiations. At times it has aligned with the United States and Europe, for example on ambitious goals to boost renewable energy or on reducing methane, a powerful greenhouse gas. At the same time, on other issues, it has slowed progress.

An example of this is COP15, held in Copenhagen in 2009. There was high hope that an agreement would be reached to commit countries to significantly reduce their carbon emissions. But the conference nearly collapsed when China fought U.S. pressure to submit to an international surveillance regime. The final non-binding agreement was generally considered a failure.

This year was different, said the chief negotiator I spoke to. He observed that China had been unusually cooperative throughout the discussions.

Getty Images

Solar panels made in China: President Xi Jinping said solar panels, electric vehicles and batteries are the new trio at the heart of China's economy.

Other changes were also observed, some concerning China's presentation of its own economic situation.

It is classified as a developing country in the context of the UN climate negotiations, despite being the world's second largest economy, the result of a peculiarity of the COP rules. (This is linked to its economic status in 1992, when the negotiation process began.) It has also long resisted pressure from developed countries to change its status, meaning it is not obligated to contribute to the kitty that rich countries have agreed to pay to the poorest. . Yet this year, some experts have noticed a change in the wording used by Chinese negotiators.

What's so interesting is the language the Chinese use, says Professor Michael Jacobs, a climate policy expert at the University of Sheffield. They described it as being provided and mobilized – this is the term developed countries use for their payments.

Language matters at climate conferences. Negotiators can spend days discussing whether something should or will happen. So the fact that the Chinese are echoing the language of the rich world is significant, says Professor Jacobs.

They used to calibrate everything based on what the United States was doing, he said. When Trump took office in 2016, China withdrew from negotiations in response. This time it's different, according to Professor Jacobs.

This seems to me to be a claim for leadership. »

What is in it for the East?

None of this is driven by China's “altruism”, Professor Jacobs continues.

According to Li Shuo, the economic evolution of renewable energy explains why China is likely to become a bigger player.

The green transformation is largely driven by China – not necessarily by the government, but by its private sector and businesses. These companies lead the rest of the world by a very significant margin, according to Li Shuo.

Eight out of ten solar panels are made in China and control around two-thirds of wind turbine production. It is estimated to produce at least three-quarters of the world's lithium batteries and more than 60% of the global electric vehicle market.

Earlier this year, Chinese President Xi Jinping said solar panels, electric vehicles and batteries were the new trio at the heart of China's economy.

It is the huge investments that China has made in renewable technologies and the huge economies of scale it has created that have also driven down the costs of renewable energy year after year – the challenge it now faces is to find new markets in which to sell its products.

It is in developing countries that demand is set to explode. These countries will represent two-thirds of the renewable energy market within 10 years, according to a recent report by a group of economists commissioned by the UN to calculate the costs of the energy transition.

Pakistan imported 13 gigawatts (GW) of solar panels in the first six months of this year alone, according to a Bloomberg NEF study. To put this into context, the UK has 17GW of installed solar power.

Sending clean technology to emerging economies is part of another Chinese policy: its Belt and Road Initiative, an effort to develop new trade routes, including roads, railways, ports and airports, to connect with the rest of the world.

China has spent more than $1 trillion on the project, according to the World Economic Forum. Last week, President Xi opened a new port on the Peruvian coast.

Which begins to explain why, according to Professor Jacobs, while the United States could withdraw, China seems to want to intensify its efforts. It now sees its interest in encouraging other countries to also reduce their emissions by using Chinese technology and equipment.

Getty Images

China's Belt and Road Initiative aims to develop new trade routes and is part of China's clean technology exports to emerging economies.

But ultimately, whether that happens or not, there is reason for hope, according to some well-placed observers. Camilla Born, who was part of the UK's negotiating team and helped organize COP26 in Glasgow, believes future negotiations will be determined by the new energy economy, not the meeting policy.

It's no longer just an idea about how to deal with climate change, she says. It's about investments, money, jobs, new technologies. The conversations are different.

This is, after all, the biggest energy revolution since the start of the industrial revolution. And no matter which superpower takes the lead, or whether the United States is out of the game for four years, it's unlikely anyone would want to miss out on such a huge market.

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