US Economy Poised for 'Solid' Growth in 2025 as America 'Doesn't Import Recessions' (BofA)

The American economy is currently on solid foundations.

Bank of America economists expect it to stay that way through next year.

In a research note released to reporters Monday, BofA's economic team led by Claudio Irigoyen forecasts that the U.S. economy will grow at an annualized rate of 2.4% in 2025, higher than current forecasts for growth by 2%, according to the latest Bloomberg consensus estimates.

This comes despite uncertainties surrounding President-elect Donald Trump's economic policies, including campaign promises of tariffs on imported goods, tax cuts for businesses and restrictions on immigration, which economists view as inflationary .

President-elect Donald Trump speaks during a meeting with the House GOP conference, November 13, 2024, in Washington. (Allison Robbert/Pool via AP, File) ASSOCIATED PRESS

These proposals could also hamper economic growth and put pressure on an already bloated federal deficit, further complicating the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy.

Higher interest rates, coupled with hawkish tariff policy, would strengthen the U.S. dollar and create ripple effects on global financial conditions, representing “a major shock, not only to the U.S. economy but to the rest of the world,” according to BofA.

But there is an important caveat: The United States is best prepared to weather any economic storm that follows Trump's agenda.

“We like to say the U.S. imports a lot of things, but it doesn't import recessions,” Aditya Bhave, senior U.S. economist at Bank of America, told Yahoo Finance during another media briefing Monday. . “It only exports recessions.”

Bhave added that any changes in U.S. trade policy “would pose greater risks to the rest of the world than to the United States” because of the economy's resilience compared to other developed countries.

Recent domestic growth trends have been “remarkable,” according to Bhave, and the proof is in the data.

Consumer confidence is at its highest level in 18 months. U.S. economic output hasn't been this strong since April 2022. Retail sales beat estimates for October, the unemployment rate continues to hover around 4%, and inflation has moderated despite its bumpy road up to 2%.

“Today's world is one in which the U.S. economy has consistently outperformed [for] “Europe is in trouble, China is in trouble, so the United States is approaching any potential trade policy disruption on a much firmer footing than Europe and China. I think that fact will not go unnoticed neither for the new administration.

Tariffs, in particular, have been one of the most talked about promises of the Trump campaign. The president-elect has pledged to impose across-the-board tariffs of at least 10% on all trading partners, including 60% tariffs on Chinese imports.

The story continues

If countries retaliate with their own taxes, a tit-for-tat trade war could keep inflation high in the long term.

BofA, however, does not expect this scenario to come true, noting that its “baseline scenario calls for tariffs on China and elsewhere”, and that it expects levies “to be lower ” to what was promised.

The company is “moderately optimistic that a full-blown trade war can be avoided.”

Overall, “tariffs can be very disruptive in terms of capital expenditures” [and] it obviously exports,” Bhave said.

But because the United States imports more goods and services from these countries than it exports, “by definition, tariffs pose a much greater threat to these regions than to the United States.” , added Bhave.

Alexandra Canal is a senior reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X @allie_canal, LinkedIn and email her at [email protected].

Click here for the latest stock news and in-depth analysis, including the events that move stocks.

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance.

What Are The Main Benefits Of Comparing Car Insurance Quotes Online

LOS ANGELES, CA / ACCESSWIRE / June 24, 2020, / Compare-autoinsurance.Org has launched a new blog post that presents the main benefits of comparing multiple car insurance quotes. For more info and free online quotes, please visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/the-advantages-of-comparing-prices-with-car-insurance-quotes-online/ The modern society has numerous technological advantages. One important advantage is the speed at which information is sent and received. With the help of the internet, the shopping habits of many persons have drastically changed. The car insurance industry hasn't remained untouched by these changes. On the internet, drivers can compare insurance prices and find out which sellers have the best offers. View photos The advantages of comparing online car insurance quotes are the following: Online quotes can be obtained from anywhere and at any time. Unlike physical insurance agencies, websites don't have a specific schedule and they are available at any time. Drivers that have busy working schedules, can compare quotes from anywhere and at any time, even at midnight. Multiple choices. Almost all insurance providers, no matter if they are well-known brands or just local insurers, have an online presence. Online quotes will allow policyholders the chance to discover multiple insurance companies and check their prices. Drivers are no longer required to get quotes from just a few known insurance companies. Also, local and regional insurers can provide lower insurance rates for the same services. Accurate insurance estimates. Online quotes can only be accurate if the customers provide accurate and real info about their car models and driving history. Lying about past driving incidents can make the price estimates to be lower, but when dealing with an insurance company lying to them is useless. Usually, insurance companies will do research about a potential customer before granting him coverage. Online quotes can be sorted easily. Although drivers are recommended to not choose a policy just based on its price, drivers can easily sort quotes by insurance price. Using brokerage websites will allow drivers to get quotes from multiple insurers, thus making the comparison faster and easier. For additional info, money-saving tips, and free car insurance quotes, visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ Compare-autoinsurance.Org is an online provider of life, home, health, and auto insurance quotes. This website is unique because it does not simply stick to one kind of insurance provider, but brings the clients the best deals from many different online insurance carriers. In this way, clients have access to offers from multiple carriers all in one place: this website. On this site, customers have access to quotes for insurance plans from various agencies, such as local or nationwide agencies, brand names insurance companies, etc. "Online quotes can easily help drivers obtain better car insurance deals. All they have to do is to complete an online form with accurate and real info, then compare prices", said Russell Rabichev, Marketing Director of Internet Marketing Company. CONTACT: Company Name: Internet Marketing CompanyPerson for contact Name: Gurgu CPhone Number: (818) 359-3898Email: [email protected]: https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ SOURCE: Compare-autoinsurance.Org View source version on accesswire.Com:https://www.Accesswire.Com/595055/What-Are-The-Main-Benefits-Of-Comparing-Car-Insurance-Quotes-Online View photos