Iran, US set to reach deal to end war and reopen Hormuz

The latest signs of movement follow a wave of regional diplomacy involving Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan and Bahrain, as several Middle East leaders urged Washington to accept a deal and prevent further escalation.

Trump said in a Truth Social article that a deal involving the United States, Iran and several regional countries had been “extensively negotiated” and was awaiting finalization.

“The final aspects and details of the agreement are currently being discussed and will be announced soon,” Trump said, adding that “the Strait of Hormuz will be open.”

Trump said the statement followed what he called a “very good call” with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan and Bahrain regarding Iran and “a memorandum of understanding relating to peace.”

He also said he spoke separately with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, calling the call “very good.”

Trump’s remarks came after Iran submitted a revised proposal to the United States through Pakistani mediators aimed at ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with a U.S. response expected by Sunday, Reuters reported citing two Pakistani sources familiar with the negotiations.

Several Middle East leaders involved in Trump’s call urged him to agree to a deal with Iran, Axios reported citing a source briefed on the call. A regional source said the message from Arab and Muslim leaders was: “Please stop the war for the benefit of the entire region.” »

Reuters separately reported, citing a Pakistani security official briefed on Pakistani army chief Asim Munir’s visit to Tehran, that a memorandum of understanding was being “worked out” to end the war between the United States and Iran.

The official said Munir’s visit yielded “significant progress” on points discussed at the Islamabad talks, calling the interim agreement “comprehensive enough to end the war,” while warning: “It’s never over until it’s done.”

The Pakistani military said in a statement on Saturday that negotiations during Munir’s visit, after he returned to Islamabad as mediator, had produced “encouraging progress towards a final agreement”.

“An agreement very far and very close”

In Tehran, Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said the parties were finalizing a 14-point memorandum of understanding that would create a temporary framework for diplomacy.

Parliament Speaker and head of the Iranian negotiating team, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, recently appointed Baghaei as the team’s spokesperson.

Speaking on state television on Saturday, Baghaei stressed that Iran’s “goal at this stage is to end the war.”

Under the proposed deal, he said, Iran and the United States would spend 30 to 60 days after signing the memorandum to negotiate details of the most contentious issues, including Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief, the release of frozen Iranian assets and disputes over the Strait of Hormuz.

Baghaei nevertheless warned against assuming an imminent breakthrough. “An agreement cannot be said to be close,” he said, adding that the differences between Tehran and Washington are “so deep and so wide-ranging” that no one can expect that several rounds of meetings over a few weeks or months will necessarily produce results.

In a sentence that quickly circulated in Iranian media and social networks, Baghaei summed up the uncertainty surrounding the talks by saying: “The agreement is both very far and very close. »

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio also struck a cautious tone Saturday, saying “some progress” had been made in Iran negotiations and suggesting news could be available soon, while cautioning that no progress was certain.

“There may be some news later today. I don’t have any news at the moment, but there may be some news later today,” Rubio told reporters in New Delhi. “It may not be. I hope there will be, but I’m not sure yet.”

He added that there was “a chance” that the United States might have something to say “whether it be later today, tomorrow, in a few days,” but added that the issue had to be resolved “one way or another.”

The Financial Times reported, citing mediators and people briefed on the negotiations, that the United States and Iran were close to extending their 60-day ceasefire in a framework that would gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz and launch discussions over Tehran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium.

“A failure of the negotiations is always likely”

Despite these cautiously positive signals, skepticism remains widespread, both in political circles and among Iranian public opinion.

Fada-Hossein Maleki, a member of the Iranian parliament’s national security committee who attended the meeting between Asim Munir and Ghalibaf on Saturday, accused Washington of undermining the negotiations.

In comments to the Iranian Students News Agency, Maleki said Iranian and Pakistani officials agreed that the United States itself had created many of the obstacles that threatened the negotiations.

He specifically accused U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff of providing “unrealistic reports” to Trump, saying Trump’s social media posts based on those reports had “created sensitivity in Iran and even upset our Pakistani friends.”

According to Iran’s official IRNA news agency, the process “could collapse at any time due to America’s maximalist approaches.”

The IRGC-linked Fars News Agency reported, citing a source close to the Iranian negotiating team, that the talks would fail unless the United States showed flexibility.

The source said Tehran would not discuss its nuclear program at this stage and would condition such negotiations on U.S. confidence-building measures.

Fars said the release of funds blocked by Iran was one of the main conditions imposed by Tehran to begin negotiations, while rules for the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz remained another point of disagreement.

Although Washington has accepted some of Tehran’s positions, the three issues remain unresolved and Iran is preparing other options, Fars reported citing the source.

Talks will fail, war will resume: poll

Iranian public opinion also appears deeply pessimistic about the prospects for a lasting agreement.

In an online poll by the conservative Iranian website Tabnak, nearly 70 percent of more than 110,000 respondents predicted that no agreement will ultimately be reached and that the war will resume.

Trump kept the military option on the table Saturday, saying it was a “solid 50/50” whether the sides would reach an agreement or the United States would “send them back to the kingdom come.”

“I think one of two things will happen: Either I’ll hit them harder than they’ve ever been hit, or we’ll sign a good deal,” Trump said.

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