The more generous the US ceasefire conditions, the more wary Iran becomes of a new attack.

The Iranian regime may be wondering whether an emerging deal to extend its ceasefire with the United States is too good to be true.

While negotiations are ongoing and key details remain to be worked out, the broad outlines of a deal include Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and allowing ships to pass through without paying tolls, sources told Axios. In exchange, the United States would lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports and ease sanctions, allowing Tehran to openly sell its oil.

But the most contentious issues must be resolved during a 60-day negotiating window. This includes Iranian uranium as well as the permanent end of US sanctions and the release of Iranian assets frozen abroad, estimated at $25 billion.

The United States would also maintain its military presence in the region and only withdraw once a final agreement is reached, Axios said. But Trump would still give up important leverage.

“One of the problems with this approach and deciding to only deal with the nuclear issue later is that lifting sanctions on Iranian oil exports now will decrease, not increase, Iran’s incentive to reach a nuclear deal,” Eric Brewer, former National Security Council director for counterproliferation, said on control of the waterway.”

Reports that the United States and Iran are close to extending their ceasefire have shocked some Republicans, who fear Trump is about to reveal too much.

Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., warned against a deal that effectively recognizes Tehran’s ability to control the strait, saying it would represent a major shift in the regional balance of power and ultimately become a “nightmare” for Israel.

Similarly, Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss., said a 60-day extension would be a disaster and that “anything accomplished by Operation Epic Fury would be for naught!” » Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, has also stepped up his efforts.

“If the result of all this is to be an Iranian regime – still led by Islamists who chant ‘death to America’ – now receiving billions of dollars, being able to enrich uranium and develop nuclear weapons, and having effective control over the Strait of Hormuz, then that result would be a disastrous mistake,” he posted on X.

Despite U.S.-Israeli bombing that has devastated Iran’s military and economy, Tehran has retained enough combat power to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, using missiles, drones and fast attack boats.

Meanwhile, Trump has signaled reluctance to resume attacks and break the ceasefire, while halting efforts to restart Hormuz traffic by using Navy warships to protect oil tankers.

With Iran holding the global economy hostage and oil markets poised to collapse in weeks, it has refused to budge on many of its demands.

But even the regime is not sure it can believe the American offer. That’s when previous rounds of negotiations earlier this year and last year ended with the United States dropping bombs on Iran.

“The deal at stake looks like a victory for Iran. But Tehran is not convinced that this is not a dress rehearsal for war now or in 30 days,” Vali Nasr, a former senior adviser at the State Department, posted on

As a result, Tehran will focus on evidence that the U.S. military will back down, he added, and trusting the United States will be a “gamble” that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei will ultimately decide to make.

A U.S. Marine with Force Reconnaissance Platoon, 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, fires a rifle while conducting routine training in the U.S. Central Command area of ​​responsibility, April 14, 2026.

United States Marine Corps

The Institute for the Study of War noted in a report Saturday that the Iranian regime believes it is negotiating from a position of strength “because of its victory in the war.”

At the same time, one of Iran’s main objectives in the negotiations is to secure its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, ISW added.

At the same time, the U.S. naval blockade does not erode Iran’s grip, because ships that have not entered or exited an Iranian port are still free to pass, even if they have agreed to conditions imposed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The world cannot wait any longer for the strait to return to normal, but prolonging negotiations helps normalize Iran’s de facto control, the ISW noted in another report.

“The Iranians are probably aware of this, and this is one of the reasons why they are blocking and delaying the negotiation process,” the statement said. “The United States and the world should not allow Iran to impose a new reality on this crucial international waterway. If negotiations do not quickly result in an agreement to reopen the strait under the previous internationally recognized transit program, unfortunately it will be necessary to use force.”

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