Take a look ahead to see what the British summer will bring

After a very warm and dry spring with record May temperatures, this warm trend could continue in the UK into summer 2026. Current trends actually favor above average temperatures throughout the season. However, rainfall patterns appear to be more variable.

June looks set to start off unsettled and cooler than the end of May, with a chance of rain. However, there are signs that high pressure will return later this month, bringing drier and warmer conditions. After July the signal will be a bit weaker, but it will likely be warm, sometimes even hot, but this can vary. August is both the hottest and driest month of summer.

The latest seasonal forecast strengthens signals of El Niño developing in the coming months. US NOAA’s ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Forecast Update dated May 26 states:

El Niño is likely to arrive soon (82% probability May-July 2026) and persist until Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27 (96% probability December 2026-February 2027).

As a result, seasonal models are likely to show patterns consistent with the typical El Niño teleconnection throughout the summer.

For Europe, the latest multi-model C3S seasonal forecast released on 10 May shows that summer will be affected by unusually high sea level pressure and relatively weak atmospheric pressure patterns in the north. Seasonal forecasts from individual weather models are more mixed, but taken together they show an anomalous anticyclonic signal over northern Europe.

Seasonal temperatures are expected to be above average across all regions, with the strongest signal expected in the southeastern part of the continent. As is usually the case, the signal for precipitation is much weaker compared to temperature from June to August.

For June, we typically look at the ECMWF sub-seasonal forecast, which is updated daily, which provides a much more reliable indication of the outlook a month ahead than using the seasonal forecast released earlier in the month.

Looking at ECMWF’s current sub-seasonal week, we see low pressure leading to unstable conditions in the first half of the month, but high pressure again in the second half, with impacts possibly lasting until early July, but with a tendency to move towards northern England, which could eventually mean less settling in the south.

A month later, we use a combination of seasonal model forecasts and composite pressure pattern charts for summers with similar ENSO conditions (e.g. this summer with a strong El Niño event like in 1997).

Here is a list of the main years when the El Niño phenomenon begins or actively forms during the summer months:

2023: A strong, well-documented El Niño developed in the summer and peaked in late 2023. June was the hottest in recorded history, and July was actually cooler and more unsettled than June. August was unsettled with low pressure prevailing, and there were two named storms. 2015: Warming accelerated in the tropical Pacific over the summer, triggering one of the strongest events on record. June was dry and sunny with high average temperatures, July was unsettled and cool after a very hot first day of the month, and August was generally cool and unsettled and very wet in the south. 1997: Summer development led to an unusually strong “Super El Niño” in 1997-1998. That June was the coolest and wettest ‘June monsoon’ of the century, July was warm but variable, and August was the second hottest of the 20th century (since 1995). 1991: A strong El Niño developed in the summer and extended into the following year. June is cool and wet, and July is warm but changeable. August is warm and dry. 1987: Things began to deteriorate during the summer, leading to maturing events that winter. June is cool, cloudy and wet, and July is dry, sunny and warm until mid-month. After that, it’s downhill until most of August. It is often cool, cloudy and humid, with brief hot weather in mid-August. By the summer of 1982, a rapid warming phase was established, culminating in a historically powerful event. That June was the wettest in the century prior to 1997, July was warm and dry, and August was near average.

As you can see above, the Junes of 1982, 1987, 1991, and 1997 were all cool and unsettled, but when you compare each month from year to year, the weather is quite mixed.

A composite of 500 hPa elevation anomalies for July and August for the above years is shown below and used for summer forecasts. The composite model for June is not used as the sub-seasonal model from a month ago is a more reliable indicator.

July

August

In July, the composite shows higher 500-hPa altitude anomalies towards Iceland and southern Europe and lower over southwestern Europe. This infers a warm pattern, but there is no sign of lower or higher altitudes in the UK, with the potential for unsettled weather to the south-west at times. In August, high-altitude anomalies of 500 hPa are evident over southern and eastern England, with a very warm and dry low-altitude pattern towards Iceland.

Initial thoughts suggest that June will be unsettled, with slightly below average temperatures and above average precipitation during the first half of the year, but with a tendency to be drier and warmer in the second half. July is a month with a mix of drier and more stable weather, although it also has a few unsettled days and is warmer than average. August is a hot and dry month, especially in the first half of the month, although unstable conditions are possible, which are shorter than dry and stable periods, with rain mostly falling in the west.

The full summer forecast is released the first week of June.

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