10-Day Trends: A Changing Start to June?

This is being driven largely by a fairly active jet stream located further south than would normally be expected at this time of year.

This configuration helps steer a series of low pressure systems towards the UK, more commonly associated with autumn or winter. As a result, the dominant theme during this period will be alternating periods of rain, showers and strong winds, with limited opportunities for more stable conditions.

midweek conditions

In the short term, low pressure will continue to affect the weather, bringing more showers and gusty winds. The distribution and intensity of showers will vary, with strong southerly winds causing showers to pass quickly and at times strong enough to create a risk of hail and thunder.

Further north, particularly across Scotland, winds may weaken at times and the showers may move more slowly. This increases the likelihood of higher rainfall totals, even if the showers themselves are less intense.

There are brief signs of improvement as the stock heads into Friday. A weak ridge of high pressure is expected to form, increasing the likelihood of drier and brighter conditions, especially across the East, which may avoid showers altogether in some areas.

Read more: Weather statistics for May 2026: County-by-county breakdown

An anxious weekend is coming

Attention then turns to a developing low pressure area approaching from the Atlantic, which is expected to influence UK weather throughout the weekend. Some uncertainty remains about its exact strength and path, but wet and windy weather is likely.

Gusty winds are possible, particularly across western England, including south-west England, South Wales and southern Ireland. Although not unusual, these winds can be noticeable year-round and affect outdoor activities.

Rainfall is also expected to be significant, with western and highland areas most at risk of prolonged and more severe weather. The highest totals will be seen in western Scotland, north-west England and parts of Wales, particularly areas where rain continues to fall in the Highlands.

Eastern areas are likely to fare somewhat better, with occasional drier intervals, but occasional rain cannot be ruled out. Overall, temperatures are expected to remain cool throughout the weekend, with the combination of rain and wind expected to further enhance feelings of uneasiness.

Read more: Deep Dive: Dramatic change from heat to unsettled weather

Until next week

The influence of low pressure will continue next week and the overall unstable pattern is expected to remain. Further rain is likely to move across the UK following the south-westerly flow.

Another area of ​​low pressure could move in from the north early in the week, bringing additional winds and rain, particularly to Scotland and Northern Ireland. This system occurs in colder air and helps keep temperatures in check.

The overall pattern suggests that southern and eastern regions may see brighter and slightly milder conditions at times, while western and northern regions are more exposed to clouds, wind and rain.

Are there any signs of improvement later?

There are tentative signs that the situation may stabilize somewhat towards the second half of the 10-day period. Some forecast scenarios indicate higher pressures may begin to build, potentially leading to drier and warmer conditions.

However, confidence in these results is relatively low at this stage. The more dominant signal continues to favor the southwestern regime, which will maintain a generally unsettled and changeable pattern with further rain and showers interspersed with brighter spells.

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