Only one in ten Europeans now consider the United States an ally, survey finds | NATO

Europeans’ confidence in America’s “security guarantee” has reached an all-time low, a survey suggests, with just one in 10 people in 15 countries considering the United States an ally and a majority doubting it would come to their aid if attacked.

The survey, released Wednesday by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) think tank ahead of critical G7 and NATO summits in France and Turkey in the coming weeks, revealed “deep European distrust of the United States,” according to the authors.

It also shows that although many Europeans believed relations with Washington would improve once Donald Trump left office, they were increasingly willing in the meantime to protect themselves against U.S. unreliability by strengthening European defense.

Fewer and fewer Europeans now consider the United States as an ally

The US president’s aggression in the Middle East, threats against Greenland, promise to withdraw troops from European bases and skepticism about the future of NATO have also sparked growing European pragmatism, the report said.

“Across the continent, there is clear support for reducing dependence on Washington,” said Jana Kobzová, co-author and senior policy researcher at ECFR. “Europeans are increasingly open to increased defense spending and, above all, demonstrate a striking degree of confidence that neighboring countries will come to their aid in a crisis. »

Paweł Zerka, Kobzová’s co-author and also a senior policy researcher at ECFR, said the clear public demand for greater autonomy and the need to guard against US defense guarantees had “created a window for European leaders to go further and faster” on security.

A minority of European citizens believe that the United States would defend them if attacked.

The survey, based on a May poll in Austria, Bulgaria, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom, shows that on average only 11 percent of respondents across all countries now view the United States as an ally who “shares our interests and values.”

This compared to 16% six months ago and 22% in November 2024. The prevailing view was that the United States was now a “necessary partner”, although 13% of the European public said they saw the United States as a rival and 12% as a direct adversary.

In all countries, majorities were no longer convinced that the United States would come to their aid in the event of an attack. Except in Bulgaria, most people – including in countries with large far-right parties like France, Italy, the Netherlands and Sweden – believed that “at least some European countries” would help them in a similar scenario.

Europeans are now on average 4% more likely to support an increase in national defense spending than last year, the survey found, with Italy the only country where a clear majority remains opposed.

On average, 47% of respondents support the ideal of collective EU borrowing to finance greater defense spending, and 35% oppose it. Support was strongest in Portugal (59%), Denmark (56%), the Netherlands (55%) and Spain.

In almost every country surveyed, most respondents said their country should reduce its strategic dependence on U.S. military hardware, with supporters of European purchasing strongest in Denmark (75%), the Netherlands (72%), Sweden (70%), Portugal (69%), France (66%), Switzerland (64%), the United Kingdom and Spain (both 62%).

The idea of ​​reducing domestic public spending to finance higher national defense budgets, however, received significantly less support, with opposition strongest in Italy (63%), Austria (59%), Germany (56%), Spain (54%) and Denmark (52%).

There was also little support (29%) for replacing NATO with a new European-only defense body, with the prevailing view in almost every country except Bulgaria saying U.S.-European relations would “likely improve” once Trump is gone — a view shared by 60% or more in France, Spain, Denmark, the Netherlands and Sweden.

Despite rising energy costs, 44% of Europeans believe that resuming oil and gas imports from Russia would be a “rather bad” or “very bad” idea.

Ukraine’s ambition to join the EU, however, continues to divide European opinion, with respondents in countries including Hungary, Bulgaria, Austria, Germany and even Estonia, one of kyiv’s strongest supporters, more likely to oppose Ukraine’s admission “in the current context” than to favor it.

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