Live updates: US, Iranian officials hold low-level indirect talks in Qatar, source says

Brent crude posted its biggest quarterly decline since the start of the pandemic between April and June, as traders welcomed an interim peace deal between the United States and Iran and the return of some oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

The price of a barrel of Brent fell from $103.97 on March 31 to $72.95 yesterday, a drop of around 43%. That follows a 71% increase in the first three months of the year, according to FactSet data.

The sharp drop in oil prices during the quarter came even as several analysts warned that prices could rise as the largest oil supply shock in history rippled through the global economy.

Crude oil prices have now returned to the levels they were trading at before the United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, around $70 per barrel.

The combination of excess oil supply at the start of the war, subdued demand in response to rising prices, increased production in other parts of the world, and a reduction in strategic oil stocks by governments helped to blunt the impacts of the disruption.

Prices have fallen sharply in recent weeks due to expectations of a normalization of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. But oil traders may be “too optimistic about the speed of the supply recovery”, according to Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at Dutch bank ING.

The market is “treating this temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran as a permanent agreement” and has “gone out of line,” he wrote in a research note Tuesday.

“Our assumption is that flows will only approach pre-war levels towards the end of the third quarter, while current price levels imply a return to normal by the end of July.”

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