Cruel summer: Punishing heatwaves hit Europe and the US, with a preview of what’s to come

Summer has only just begun in the Northern Hemisphere, but it’s already offering an oppressive glimpse of life on a warmer planet.

Europe has endured two deadly, record-breaking heatwaves in a matter of weeks, with a third expected next week. Today, the United States is experiencing its own dangerous heat blast, particularly in the East, which is facing soaring temperatures and high humidity.

These episodes were triggered by intense heat domes – stubborn areas of high pressure that block warm air – and are clearly amplified by global warming, experts say.

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The strengthening of the El Niño phenomenon and record ocean temperatures worldwide could also amplify the heat.

“There is no doubt that record sea surface temperatures like those we are seeing now – which are driven partly by El Niño and partly by long-term human-caused warming – are fueling more extreme weather, because warmer oceans mean more moisture in the atmosphere that is available to intensify storm systems and produce heavy precipitation,” said Michael Mann, a climatologist at the University of Pennsylvania.

“The world record [ocean] temperatures also mean more extreme heat,” he said.

About 150 million people in the eastern half of the United States are under a heat alert, or nearly one in two Americans. The heat wave will be particularly intense in the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast. In Washington, D.C., July 4 is expected to be the hottest on record at 101 degrees, breaking the old record of 100 set in 1919. The three-day period Thursday through Saturday could be the hottest three-day period in Washington since 1930, with temperatures in the triple digits every day.

New York City is expected to hit triple digits for the first time in a decade on Thursday. Philadelphia is expected to match its July monthly record with a forecast high temperature of 104 degrees on Friday. And further north in Boston, daily records are expected to fall from today through Friday, with daily temperatures at or near 100 degrees.

Cities across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic are responding to extreme heat by opening or expanding cooling centers, swimming pools, libraries, spray parks and other public spaces. Many are also increasing their work with vulnerable groups, including homeless people, elderly residents and outdoor workers.

Major Fourth of July events, including the “Great American State Fair” on the National Mall in DC, are adding water stations, cooling tents, misting areas and other heat safety measures. NYC is rolling out mobile medical vans, instructions for cooling centers at LinkNYC kiosks, and reminders to businesses about thermal protection for workers.

The link between climate change and heat waves like the ones we saw this spring and summer is particularly strong, simple and well understood. As the planet warms, extreme heat events become more frequent, intense and lasting.

A rapid study of Europe’s most recent heatwave, released late last week, found that not only was it the worst heatwave ever recorded in Europe, but such extraordinary temperatures would have been “virtually impossible” just a few decades ago, when human-caused global warming was less severe.

“Make no mistake, the main driver of the rise in deadly heat waves across the world is the burning of fossil fuels, given that slight baseline warming leads to exponential increases in extreme heat,” said Kim Cobb, a climate scientist at Brown University.

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El Niño is well known for amplifying average global surface temperatures and is expected to lead to a record warm year in 2027, while increasing temperatures this year to some extent as well.

It can also lead to marine heatwaves and extreme heat on land, but these impacts are typically seen a few months after an El Niño forms and strengthens, rather than immediately. The ongoing El Niño phenomenon was declared on June 11, making it a recent weather phenomenon.

Michael Tippett, a climatologist at Columbia University who studies links between El Niño and weather patterns, said that on average, there is not a strong link between El Niño and changes in summer weather patterns in the United States and Europe.

Instead, he said El Niño tends to significantly influence fall and winter weather in those regions.

However, Cobb said that while there is no clear link between El Niño and large-scale summer heat waves, in general, this particular El Niño is unusual in several ways. This makes its impact potentially distinct from past events.

“This El Niño is of unusual magnitude for this start of the year, and it is occurring in a warmer climate that is fundamentally different from previous decades. We learn something new from each event, paving the way for new areas of research to improve our understanding of the impacts of El Niño in a warming world,” Cobb said.

Although El Niño plays only a minor role in recent extreme heat, it is likely to become a star player by next summer, potentially leading to even more extreme heat events around the world.

Mann pointed out another factor involved in the recent extremes dominated by heat domes – the jet stream – which may have been part of the European heat wave that is finally starting to subside, as well as the American heat wave that is only intensifying. The jet stream is a high-altitude aerial highway that directs weather systems.

When the jet stream is very wavy and slow to change to a different pattern, it can lead to extreme results, such as heat domes that don’t move for days or even weeks.

“The tendency of the jet stream, during the warm half of the year, to lock into very stable wavy patterns… favors persistent weather extremes,” he said. Heat domes tend to form where the jet stream turns north, moving up and over the dome itself and leading to strong flows of warm air from south to north, near the Earth’s surface.

Mann and his colleagues showed an increase in the frequency of these types of blocked jet streams, known as planetary resonance events, in recent decades. This trend coincides with increased global warming.

“We know that this has been associated with many of the most extreme heat waves we’ve experienced in recent decades,” Mann said.

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