Annual home price growth expected to rise further in June

headline

June 26

May 26

Monthly Index*

550.7

550.9

Monthly changes*

-0.0%

-0.6%

annual change

2.2%

1.7%

average price

(not seasonally adjusted)

£277,484

£278,024

* Seasonally adjusted figures (note that the monthly change rate is modified when the seasonal adjustment coefficient is re-estimated)

Robert Gardner, Chief Economist at Nationwide, commented on the figures:

“Annual house price growth rose from 1.7% in May to 2.2% in June, but after accounting for seasonal effects, monthly prices were broadly flat.

“Given the uncertainty caused by developments in the Middle East and the resulting rise in energy prices and market interest rates, it is not surprising that markets have eased somewhat in recent months. Indeed, measures of consumer confidence and housing sentiment have weakened and there has been a notable decline in mortgage approvals in May.

“With geopolitical tensions still high, the signing of a memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States has helped return oil prices to levels before the conflict began.

“If the energy shock continues to subside, the Bank of England may not need to raise interest rates, or at least not as much as previously expected. This view has been further strengthened by the fact that inflation in the UK has also been lower than expected in recent months.

“In recent weeks, changes in market expectations about the future path of bank rates have helped to drive down market rates that underpin fixed-rate mortgage prices.

“If these trends hold, they will help restore household confidence and ease affordability constraints and pave the way for a recovery in housing market activity in coming quarters, provided domestic political uncertainty does not have a negative impact on sentiment.

All regions see annual price increases in the second quarter.

“Our local house price index is calculated quarterly. Data for the second quarter (three months to June) shows that all 13 regions saw positive annual house price growth, with all but one region recording increases in the 0 to 4 per cent range.

Region in the last 12 months

region

average price

(2nd quarter 2026)

Annual % change this quarter

Annual % change last quarter

Northern Ireland

£226,699

8.6%

9.5%

north west

£231,415

3.9%

3.3%

north

£173,756

3.9%

2.6%

The Granite City

£195,928

3.5%

3.0%

wales

£220,337

3.5%

2.7%

west midlands

£256,592

3.2%

0.0%

Yorks and the H

£217,518

2.9%

1.6%

east midlands

£240,482

1.8%

0.3%

London

£540,903

1.6%

1.7%

southwest

£310,429

0.7%

0.1%

east anglia

£274,375

0.3%

-0.4%

met outside

£432,173

0.3%

1.0%

southeastern outskirts

£341,175

0.1%

-0.7%

uk

£278,784

2.2%

1.5%

“Northern Ireland was again an exception, with price growth continuing to significantly outpace the rest of the UK. In fact, annual price growth of 8.6% was almost four times faster than the 2.2% recorded for the UK as a whole (Q2), and the strong performance here reflects trends seen across the Irish border.

“This continued strong performance has led to a deterioration in housing affordability in the region, in contrast to the generally improving UK average.

“In fact, the mortgage payment on a typical first-time buyer property in Northern Ireland is now equivalent to 31% of the average earner’s take-home pay, up from 24% in the second quarter of 2022. Although this is still lower than the UK average of 33% (see chart below), what is more, the typical house price in Northern Ireland is now around 80% of the UK average price, up from 70% in the first quarter of 2024, but still well below house prices. It reached a low of 125% in 2007.

“Both Scotland and Wales saw annual house price growth rise slightly to 3.5% in the second quarter, while England also saw a modest rise of 1.5% from 0.9% in the first quarter.

“Average prices in the North of England (including the North, North West, Yorkshire & the Humber, East Midlands and West Midlands) are up 3.1% year-on-year, while the North West (including areas including Cheshire, Lancashire and Greater Manchester) remains the best-performing region in the UK, up 3.9% year-on-year.

“Average house price growth in the South of England (South West, Outer South East, Outer Metropolitan, London and East Anglia) was broadly stable at 0.7%. London remained the strongest region in the South, although annual price growth was more modest at 1.6%. Meanwhile, the surrounding Outer Metropolitan and Outer South East regions recorded much more modest increases of 0.3% and 0.1% respectively.

Country Summary Table

nations

average price

(2nd quarter 2026)

Annual % change this quarter

% change by quarter

Northern Ireland

£226,699

8.6%

-0.2%

The Granite City

£195,928

3.5%

1.1%

wales

£220,337

3.5%

0.9%

uk

£315,208

1.5%

0.3%

UK Fact File (Q2 2026)

Average UK house prices by quarter

£278,784

annual percentage change

2.2%

Quarterly changes (seasonally adjusted)

0.6%

most expensive area

London

cheapest area

north

Largest annual price fluctuation

Northern Ireland

Weakest annual price change

southeastern outskirts

Energy efficiency ratings have a limited impact on owner-occupied home prices despite the growing interest in ‘going green’.

“We used data on UK homes to examine the extent to which people buying properties pay a premium (or discount) due to EPC ratings. Our research also included other property characteristics such as bedrooms, location and whether it was new build to estimate the impact on price1.

“Our analysis shows that an energy efficient property rated A or B commands a modest premium of 1.6% over a similar property rated D, which equates to around £4,500 based on the average house price in the UK. As shown in the chart below, there is little difference to a property rated C or E compared to a rated D. However, there is a slight discount for the least energy efficient properties, with the value of a rated F or G home being 1.4% lower than a similar rated D property. In cash terms, approx. Equivalent to 4,000 pounds.

“However, what is interesting is that energy efficiency has a much greater impact on buy-to-let purchases, with A or B rated properties receiving a premium of 12.2%. See us for more details.

Private Rented Energy Performance Report.

What green improvements are homeowners making?

“According to a recent market survey, nearly three-quarters (78%) of homeowners expect buyers to pay significantly more for an energy-efficient home2. This is especially evident among younger buyers, with nearly a third (32%) of those aged 25 to 34 expecting buyers to pay significantly more for an energy-efficient home, compared with just 5% of homeowners aged 55 and older. Additionally, 69% of respondents said they would pay significantly more for an energy-efficient home. We believed that EPC ratings/energy efficiency are more important now than they were then.

“More than half (54%) of those surveyed did not know the energy efficiency rating of their current property. Despite this, 77% said that EPC ratings would be an important factor when choosing a property to buy in the future. Again, this appears to be particularly important for younger buyers (e.g. aged 25-34), with almost half (49%) saying it would be ‘very important’.

“Among homeowners who have taken steps to improve the energy efficiency of their properties over the past 10 years, the most popular actions have been adding solar panels, improving insulation and upgrading energy-saving windows and doors.

“The main reasons for making green improvements were reducing energy costs (60%) and making their home more comfortable (48%). Almost three quarters (73%) said the improvements had reduced their energy bills. This is consistent with data from the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero. This suggests the median levelized fuel cost for a Class A, B or C property is around £400 lower per year than for a Class D property and £1,200 per year lower than for a Class E property3. Find out more in our study Please see the report.

-end-

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