New USGS model shows potential earthquake hazard for Hawaii

A new study by the US Geological Survey indicates that the island of Hawaii is likely to experience devastating earthquakes from an earthquake in the next century.

According to the study, the destructive ground shaking is likely to occur on the island of Hawaii where there is active volcanic activity. However, nearby islands are likely to experience such earthquakes as well, particularly Maui and Lanachi.

An updated Earth-shaking model, published online in the journal Earthquake Spectra, shows a 90% chance that 345,000 people on the islands of Hawaii and Maui will be exposed to harmful levels of vibration over the next 100 years. A lower but significant chance of damage to the vibration is expected across Oahu; In the southeastern part of the island near Honolulu, there is a greater than 50% chance of causing vibration damage during this period (Fig. 1).

The probability of a devastating earthquake minor or greater in the next 100 years. Population exposure estimates rounded to the nearest 1000. (Sources/Usage: Public Domain)

Vibration levels on the southern islands are comparable to expected vibration levels across parts of the California coast.

“The previous hazard model was developed more than 20 years ago, and since that time we have seen many large earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, and collected deformation, soil and strong motion data that can be used to improve these predictions,” said Mark Petersen, a research geophysicist at the USGS. and lead author of the publication. “We have collaborated with scientists and engineers across Hawaii and the rest of the United States to build these models. The new seismic hazard maps can be used to update building codes and other planning documents that will improve seismic safety across Hawaii.”

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Hawaii is a seismically active state, as evidenced by the thousands of earthquakes recorded by the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory each year. Devastating earthquakes have occurred over the decades, with two 6.7+ earthquakes in 2006 and 2018, most recently a 5.2 magnitude earthquake on July 5, 2021, felt by more than 1,300 people and a 6.2 magnitude earthquake on October 10, 2021, felt by more than 3,500 Person.

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Earthquakes are often associated with volcanic activity, so monitoring current volcanic activity is important as it can lead to major earthquakes. Kīlauea began to appear at the summit on September 29, 2021. Earlier this week, HVO officials reported a pause in the eruption.

Earth shaking is expected to be higher near the active volcanoes of Kīlauea and Mauna Loa in the southern part of the island of Hawaii. Here magmatic activity pushes the crust outward toward the ocean along a roughly horizontal fault located about 6 miles below the surface. Major earthquakes occurred in this region in 1868, 1975, 2018, and 2021.

The 2018 earthquake was followed by a volcanic sequence that included several seismic collapses of the Kīlauea crater floor. This provided data that helped determine the levels of vibration predicted by the model.

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“Repeated eruptions of the volcanic caldera may also have caused the devastating ground shaking during the 2018 eruption, so a new model was developed to assess this risk,” Petersen said.

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