Spaces are crowded, cluttered and dangerous, the expert says, and it requires better road rules.

The universe, as we said, is the last frontier.

A vast, empty area awaiting exploration and conquest.

This idea may sound appealing, but social scientist and lawyer Douglas Rigall says it’s not only problematic but also wrong.

The universe, or at least relatively close to Earth, is actually a very crowded, messy, and increasingly dangerous place.

According to Randor, a member of the Rand Corporation think tank Enterprise Space Initiative, this largely lawless region is in desperate need of a better “space law.”

In a recent article in the NATO Justice Bulletin, he warned that if humanity does not act, “the universe is at risk of becoming an unusable graveyard.” This can have a significant impact on humans returning to Earth.

Space debris mountain

In the early days of space exploration in the late 1950s and 1960s, the United States and the Soviet Union launched about 750 satellites into space.

This number has increased dramatically. Since then, dozens of countries and businesses have sent about 12,500 satellites into orbit. Currently, there are about 4,500 functional satellites and about 3,000 abandoned satellites, the rest of which are either burned out or far from Earth.

Image from NASA showing some of the debris being tracked around the globe (courtesy: NASA / ODPO)

Humans are always dependent on satellites. It has several uses, such as GPS services, some TV signals and telecommunications, and weather forecasts.

“Countries and businesses intend to send tens of thousands more satellites into” low earth orbit “and” geostationary orbit. ” [two main orbits around Earth] Within the next few decades. So it looks very crowded, “Ligor tells ABCRN’s Between the Lines.

Orbiting around these very important satellites is a huge amount of “space debris,” from outdated rocket parts to wrenches and bolts discarded by astronauts.

According to Rigor, there are more than 36,000 space debris with a diameter of about 10 cm or more, and about 1 million space debris with a diameter of 1 to 10 cm.

Small pieces can reach 170 million or more.

Space debris can also travel at speeds of 28,000 kilometers per hour, so large debris can “destroy, destroy, and nullify satellites and space stations,” Rigault said.

What does that mean for the earth?

Satellites and space stations can now manage debris issues with warning systems and maneuvers, which can become even more difficult in the future.

Rigall says countries continue to create space debris and cannot agree on what to do with it.

result? The “messy” space is messy every day.

More stories from between the lines:

Ligor warns of a cascade scenario where debris leads to a collision, which creates more debris, causes more collisions (and so on), and creates a very dangerous environment for space operations.

“The situation can get worse, and if you’re not careful, you can lose some of your low orbit and geosynchronous orbit.”

So, in the worst-case scenario, humans can lose some of their satellite functions, affecting GPS, telecommunications, weather monitoring, and more.

In a recent NATO Legal Gazette article, Ligor said that losing access to low orbit and geostationary orbit is “a global community of all levels, not only domestic and international turmoil and anxiety, but also significant social. And may suffer from financial instability. “

“Sure, this is the worst scenario, but the probability of such a scenario is undecided, but experts agree that the potential for catastrophic consequences is very realistic.”

The International Space Station can now dodge large amounts of space debris. (Supply: NASA / Roscosmos)

But one of the good news is that humans on Earth are very safe from space debris.

According to materials from NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office, “a large amount of debris cannot withstand the intense heating that occurs during re-entry,” and surviving debris “may fall into the ocean, other bodies of water, or less populated areas.” Is the highest. ” .. “

“No serious injury or serious property damage has been identified due to re-entry of debris.”

Collision space law

Space law, which consists of various international treaties, already exists.

However, Mr. Rigor states that these treaties “clearly represent broad and ambiguous general principles,” and there are no treaties that include a verification or enforcement mechanism.

In 1972, many countries agreed to a treaty on international liability for damages caused by space objects. However, Rigor says it is “terribly inadequate” in many situations.

He says the treaty held the country accountable for their purposes only when they were in the Earth’s atmosphere or when they returned to Earth. The universe itself has no rules for assigning obstacles.

Therefore, if the wrong astronaut’s gloves collide with a satellite and cause millions of dollars in damage, there is currently no way to determine who is actually out of order.

In other words, it’s the “Wild West” there.

“”[Today] Countries and businesses can choose the criteria they want to apply when they think their reliance on voluntary norms and voluntary behavior has caught us in this turmoil, “says Ligor.

As a result, he advocates a much stronger system of governance in the universe.

He proposes to add a new protocol to the old or new treaty. It devises a rules framework or system that everyone can trust … [and] It’s at least relatively enforceable. “

What will happen in the future?

Ligor is also worried about how wealthy companies are buying satellite “real estate” and what this means for countries with underdeveloped space.

Geostationary orbit is the best place for broadcast and communications satellites, so the competition to secure slots will be “very, very fierce.”

“The amount of real estate in geosynchronous orbit is very limited,” he says.

“Companies are basically trying to get as many of these slots as possible in orbit. With the money and resources, they can get the best place and eliminate other operators.”

This means that countries that have not yet started a space program, especially developing countries, may be completely excluded from some of the space real estate markets in the future.

There are thousands of satellites orbiting the earth, like these trees “CubeSats”. (Supply: NASA)

Guessing beyond space exploration often sounds like a realm of science fiction. But now is the time to consider what is possible and what guardrails are needed, Rigall said.

For example, NASA is set to send probes to asteroids between Mars and Jupiter later this year. This asteroid is made of iron and nickel and may be worth a whopping US $ 100 billion.

“No one has actually gone out and mined the moon or asteroids yet, so this is an opportunity. [now] To wargame different sets of rules, “he says.

“What results do we really want? And do you want them to be fair? If so, we certainly want to devise rules that only benefit the’starters’. There is none. [Elon] Musk or [Jeff] Bezos, or a particular country that first arrives on the moon and begins mining water and other valuable elements. “

He says the military is investing heavily in space. It should be a danger signal.

In recent years, the United States has established the Space Force as an independent branch of its army, the French Air Force has become the French Air Force, and NATO has declared space an “operational territory.”

“”[Throughout history] Whenever you build an army, it can be dangerous. Unless there is a balance with rules and political checks to mitigate it, it has proven to be dangerous. “

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