Will there be a Covid winter wave in the UK? Here’s what scientists think.coronavirus

As the UK rides a new wave of Covid, we take a look at the variants causing the infection and what the future holds.

What is UK situation?

With mass testing in the UK ended and surveillance programs scaled back, information about whether infection levels are rising is largely based on data from the Office for National Statistics infection surveys. Swabs from randomly selected households are analyzed in this study.

Although this study covers symptomatic and asymptomatic infections and is based on random sampling, it also has shortcomings. Among them, the headline results reflect all active infections, even if the infections started a few days ago, covering the previous week, so the most recent data is 2-3 more than the current situation. I am a week late.

In England, infection levels rose to about 1 in 30 in the week ending 10 October, and in Wales reached 1 in 25 in the week ending 29 September, according to the latest figures. did. Trends were less clear in Northern Ireland and Scotland, where about 1 in 40 people in the former and about 1 in 35 in the latter were thought to have contracted her Covid that week.

But data from Pillar 1 tests and hospital figures suggests the tide is turning.

UK NHS numbers Recent weeks have shown an increase in hospitalized Covid patients, but the number is now down, with 7,809 in the seven days to 10 October compared to 7,809 in the week to 17 October. 8,198 Covid patients were hospitalized.

What’s Behind the Recent Rise?

There are new variants in this block, but the current wave is, at least initially, heavily fueled by previously seen variants and that other factors may be the main factor suggests.

These include cold weather, children returning to school, adults returning to work at the end of the summer, reduced protective behaviors, and reduced immunity from vaccinations and previous infections.

What’s going on with variants?

Unlike previous waves driven by specific subspecies (Alpha, Delta, Omicron, etc.), the current situation is much more complex.

The big problem is that many new forms of omicron are emerging, leading to the idea that we may face an ‘omicron soup’ this fall and winter.

Those considered important for the UK in the coming months include BQ.1.1 and BF.7. Both are in the form of BA.5, but BA.2.75.2 could be another candidate.

“Right now, about half of the new cases are variants from the June/July wave, and half are new variants,” said Alex Selby, an independent mathematician who tracks the mix. .

Professor Tom Wenselias, an evolutionary biologist at the Catholic University of Leuven in Belgium, said that infections with BA.4, BA.5 and BA.5.2 are expected to decline in the coming weeks, but include BQ.1.1. It states that sharing with other variants is likely. It rises rapidly from low levels.

Different variations can be important in different parts of the world, he adds. In Singapore and parts of Asia or Oceania, XBB is a big competitor.

The frequent appearance of subspecies makes it difficult to classify them. Weseleers says he and others have started grouping variants by “levels.”

“These variant buckets are defined according to the number of significant beneficial mutations in the receptor-binding domain of the viral spike protein: 4, 5, 6 or more,” he said.

However, he noted that such mutants may still have a large number of unique mutations. In other words, it is currently unknown to what extent infection with one mutant provides immunity against another.

Experts say there’s no clear indication that the new strain will lead to more serious disease than previous strains, but the full picture will become clearer as time goes on.

What does this mean for winter?

some experts Wesselers said it could be as large as the recent summer wave, but the current wave, which includes some of the previously seen subspecies, suggests that herd immunity keeps the wave relatively small. They say it can help keep them.

An ongoing fall booster program should increase protection against severe disease among the most vulnerable, but vaccines offer no protection against infection, and such protections wear off quickly.

Even if most people are protected from serious illness, the concern is that infection levels will rise this fall and winter as a result of new strains taking hold. In many cases, it can evade immune defenses, at least to some extent.

“I wouldn’t be surprised by something like a double bump. [Covid] fashion this fall. This is now mainly due to he BA5, another cause is the proper colonization of the next subspecies,” said Professor John Edmunds of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. “We could already be on that second bump of his, but we can’t tell with current monitoring.”

of NHS feels pressure While Covid is on the rise, another concern is the disruption in sectors from travel to hospitality caused by staff taking sick leave. Problems like this can get worse. The UK is also facing a tough flu season – The concerns suggested by early data may well be supported.

and what What about Christmas?

While further waves of Covid are unlikely to trigger new rules or restrictions, experts are speaking out about personal actions you can take to reduce the risks posed by the virus. Ensuring that everyone comes forward for booster vaccinations, wearing quality masks in crowded areas, improving ventilation, and avoiding the elderly and those with symptoms of respiratory illness This includes not visiting vulnerable people.

How good are you at finding new variants?

Earlier this year, the UK was ahead in sequencing viral samples. However, the reduced scale of PCR testing by the general public has raised concerns that results may not be representative.

Dr Thomas Peacock of Imperial College London said: “But sequencing also requires resuming testing.”

However, Dr Meera Chand, UKHSA’s Director of Clinical and Emerging Infectious Diseases, said Covid variants continue to be monitored. “We will continue to monitor Sars-CoV-2 variants in collaboration with our partners around the world so that new variants can be identified as soon as possible.