Istanbul, Türkiye's largest city, fears next quake could be big | World News

Written by Ugur Yilmaz

When Turkey’s Denizbank paid more than $350 million for the building housing its headquarters in April, the purchase cemented the bank’s position in Istanbul’s most expensive business district.

But as soon as the ink was dry on the deal to build the massive 34-story tower, the firm itself began quietly looking for an alternative headquarters in another city. The reason for this was not the radical change in its business, but the possibility of seismic activity beneath it.

Earthquakes are unpredictable but inevitable, and experts say Istanbul could be in for one. After last year’s devastation in the southeast, which prompted criticism that authorities were not prepared, banks are now starting to plan for emergencies. That includes setting up shadow offices in the capital, Ankara, to ensure continuity in the event of a disaster.

In addition to Denizbank, owned by Emirates NBD, Spain’s BBVA’s Turkish unit Garanti, Qatari-owned QNB Finansbank and development bank TSKB are working on contingency plans.

Meanwhile, Turkey’s central bank has recalled some of its staff to Ankara from all departments despite a new office tower under construction on the Asian side of Istanbul, one of several that have sprung up in recent years as the city develops its financial hub. That’s so the bank can continue operating in the event of an earthquake, a person familiar with the plan said. A bank spokesman declined to comment.

While Istanbul lies just north of the North Anatolian Fault that runs through northern Turkey, Ankara lies between two major fault lines and is further from danger zones.

About 40 percent of Turkey's industrial facilities are located in the Istanbul metropolitan area, including petrochemical, automotive and textile production, a report by the Ministry of Industry and Technology said.

The city of about 16 million people and its surrounding provinces are also a hub for the global supply chain. The Bosphorus Strait, which separates Europe and Asia in Istanbul, is the only passage for ships carrying oil and grain from Black Sea countries during the war in Ukraine.

“Given the crucial role Istanbul plays in Turkish industry, it is essential to assess potential losses in the event of an earthquake and implement industrial earthquake risk management plans at national, local and institutional levels without delay,” said Nurcan Meral Özel, a professor at the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute in Istanbul.

The institute predicts a 7.33-magnitude quake will occur at some point, based on a series of calculations that used historical precedents. Meanwhile, the Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency is preparing for a 7.5-magnitude quake, slightly smaller than the quakes that struck the southeast of the country in February last year.

Denizbank’s Istanbul management has asked employees from every unit to be based in Ankara, according to a person familiar with the bank’s strategy, while another said it plans to encourage anyone who wants to move to the capital.

The bank said it was working on what it called a smaller version of its Istanbul headquarters. The goal, the bank said in response to questions, was to “ensure that our banking services continue uninterrupted after a potential earthquake that could affect Istanbul.”

QNB Finansbank said it was also supporting its head office teams in Ankara, making sure all branches and banking buildings were earthquake-resistant. TSKB Bank has also moved some of its staff to rented office space in Ankara. The bank declined to comment.

Garanti BBVA is moving its data center and some head offices, a person familiar with the plans said. The bank said in a statement it was ensuring that some of its “suppliers, facilities and human resources are outside the earthquake zone.”

As with all disaster preparations, the precautions have highlighted as much what is not being done as what is being done.

Erdal Bahcevan, head of the Istanbul Chamber of Industry, said companies and other industries need to step up their planning. This includes making sure facilities are more earthquake-resistant after examining all industrial companies in the city, he added.

Following the events in eastern Turkey last year, Bahçevan said that about 80 percent of industrial facilities in major areas of Istanbul were built before 1999, before the country revised its building regulations.

A 2021 report by Turkey’s largest business group, TUSIAD, found that coordination across industries was insufficient, while small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) stood out for their low awareness and insurance coverage.

“Given Istanbul's weight in the national economy and the possible scenario analysis of an earthquake, it is of utmost importance that we work to reduce the expected risks to an acceptable level. If we do not take action, it is unfortunate that we will all pay the price as a country,” Bahcevan, whose organization has about 25,000 members, said in a written response to questions.

The impact will be massive. Insurers estimate the economy will suffer losses of $300 billion, or 27% of gross domestic product, according to a senior industry official. That’s three times the estimate for last year’s disaster. Insurers will absorb about $25 billion to $30 billion, according to the person, who asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity surrounding earthquakes.

Istanbul has always been a city prone to earthquakes. Records show that in the summer of 1509, a powerful earthquake struck Istanbul shortly after the Ottomans captured the city. Records describe thousands of deaths as buildings collapsed. About 250 years later, in 1766, another powerful earthquake struck, causing the minarets of the Blue Mosque to collapse.

More recently, a devastating earthquake that struck the city of Izmit, less than 100 kilometers (62 miles) from Istanbul, 25 years ago killed more than 17,000 people in the area. That was followed by a financial crisis in 2001, paving the way for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s rise to power.

The risks are not much different from those in other earthquake zones. Japan seemed well prepared, but the 2011 Tohoku earthquake triggered a tsunami and a nuclear reactor meltdown, killing more than 15,000 people.

Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Diego are dangerously close to the San Andreas Fault, where experts predict a powerful earthquake, often referred to as the “Big One,” will hit. It’s not a matter of if, but when.

The urgent need for help in Istanbul was highlighted again last year when twin earthquakes devastated southern cities in Turkey, killing more than 50,000 people. Critics of the government have criticized the housing infrastructure as not being built to handle earthquakes.

Because of Erdogan's passion for construction, Türkiye has focused its resources on developing new projects rather than replenishing its old stock.

Environment and Urbanization Minister Murat Kurum said the government was aware of the danger. Earthquake preparedness was Istanbul’s most urgent priority, he said in the city last week, and that included retrofitting buildings.

“An earthquake is expected in Istanbul, but we will not wait for it. We cannot wait, and we will not ignore this reality, as some may do,” he added.

Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, who defeated Kurum in the mayoral election, estimates the cost of making vulnerable buildings resilient at around $20 billion. The World Bank’s broader estimate for Turkey is $465 billion to rehabilitate or rebuild 6.7 million housing units.

But it’s not just about the money. Istanbul is densely populated and full of multi-storey apartments, each owned by different individuals, making it difficult to reach agreements to renovate buildings. That’s in addition to the high cost at a time of economic hardship and rampant inflation.

More than 500,000 people live on unstable ground such as riverbeds. Buildings built before 1999, many of them with substandard materials, face the highest risk.

According to the Kandilli Institute, about 40,000 buildings could suffer “serious damage” in the event of another earthquake in Istanbul. The institute added that about 12% of all buildings in Istanbul could suffer significant human losses.

“Let's face it, it is very difficult today to say that Turkey or Istanbul is ready for the 'Great Istanbul Earthquake' that the scientific world is predicting. If we live in this geographical area, we have to look at this issue as the most fundamental and most important potential problem,” said Bahçevan, the head of the Chamber of Industry.

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