Ravalli commissioners vote on earthquake preparedness update

Ravalli County Commissioners voted to approve a mitigation strategy that will result in an updated grant application for hazard mitigation renovations at Lake Como Dam as well as the rest of the county.

Commissioners signed a proposal of understanding with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), which will work with Ravalli County in achieving the goals of the strategy.

FEMA will help develop “risk mitigation solutions, including but not limited to climate risk assessments, community engagement, partnership building, and climate change mitigation and adaptation planning,” the proposal said.

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Quaternary fault map and location showing the Bitterroot Fault and the Bitterroot and Missoula Valleys.

Montana Bureau of Mines and Geology

Ravalli County accepted the services of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) for 36 months to prepare “an updated application for the Como Dam grant that includes all risk reduction techniques (including seismic) and addresses gaps in the previous application.”

The District will have no financial obligation for services associated with the strategy and will be permitted to modify the agreement at any time.

The plan was approved just one week after a presentation by the Montana Bureau of Mining and Geology (MBMG) and Ravalli County Emergency Management on earthquakes in Ravalli County.

The presentation pointed to a risk report that estimated risk costs from a 7.2 magnitude earthquake along the Bitterroot Fault at about $1.3 billion to counties in the region.

FEMA currently rates the risk of an earthquake in Ravalli County as “fairly low,” but the county's proximity to the Bitterroot Fault, which runs along the base of the Bitterroot Mountain Range, would ensure widespread damage if one occurred. Strong earthquake. It is happening. Lake Como is located directly above the Bitterroot Fault.

“There is a high probability that the dam is near the fault,” said Jan Javelot, a research geologist at Montana. “Then the lake sediments settle on top of the fault.”

Gavelot said current research indicates that a strong earthquake would likely cause damage to the dam, but scientists were unsure of the size of the earthquake to expect.

Jan Javelot, a geologist and mining scientist with the Montana office, gives a presentation on the Bitterroot fault and geological hazards in the Bitterroot Valley at the Hamilton Center for the Performing Arts on Thursday, October 17, 2024.

Jessica Abel

“In the worst-case scenario, we know the fault is going to move with vertical displacement and we know the fault is near or close to the dam, so it could compromise the integrity of the dam,” Gavilo said. “We don't know for sure whether the dam will fail catastrophically.”

Geologists researching the Petrott Fault are basing some of their predictions on what happened in the 1959 Hebgen Lake earthquake that sent a 7.2-magnitude shock directly under Hebgen Lake in southwestern Montana.

“There was a superficial rupture very close to the dam and it didn't break the dam. It damaged the dam but it didn't break it,” Gavelot said. “It's a little different, but it shows that levee displacement doesn't always mean complete failure.”

However, Gavelot said a 7.2-magnitude earthquake along the Bitterroot Fault could cause water levels in Lake Como to fluctuate significantly, potentially spilling over the top of the dam.

“The lake can form what's called a rock wave,” Gavelot said. “Imagine the ground is shaking and the lake is shaking, and there is this wave moving back and forth as if you were shaking a bathtub.”

This scenario could flood remote areas, such as campgrounds and homes around Lake Como, Gavelot said. He also said that due to the various factors that affect the earthquake's aftermath, it was difficult to predict the exact consequences.

“I don't think we're looking at a catastrophic scenario, even if water is released,” Gavilo said. “But it's safe to say it's concerning and worth investigating.”

Gavilo said he and other geologists looking at the fault will release a report before the end of this year that discusses “where we might find some of the largest displacements and where the damage will be concentrated.”

Along with preparing for dam-related risks, FEMA's mitigation strategy outlined plans to increase power grid resiliency, explore options to mitigate wildfires and strengthen Ravalli County's relationship with Montana's Geological Hazards Program.

All three commissioners voted to approve the strategy.

More information regarding FEMA, the Bitterroot Fault, and earthquake potential is available on FEMA's Hazus Loss Library and the Montana Bureau of Mines and Geology website.

Jackson Kimball is the Ravalli Republic's local government correspondent.

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