The US economy is growing as the US elections approach

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The US economy grew solidly in the three months to September, with annual growth of 2.8%.

Despite a slight slowdown from the previous quarter's 3% rate, figures released by the Commerce Department show that the United States is on track to have one of the strongest economic performances of any major economy. This year.

Consumer spending was the biggest driver, recovering from the start of the year.

The report comes days before polls close in the hotly contested U.S. presidential election, in which surveys have consistently indicated the economy is Americans' top concern.

It is not certain that the latest figures will help to allay public concerns.

The economic sentiment, which darkened sharply during the pandemic, remained pessimistic, with price increases of around 21% over the past four years overshadowing other economic news, however positive.

This month, 62% of Americans view the economy overall as “bad,” according to a poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

In a country where the mantra “it's the economy, stupid” – coined by strategist James Carville in 1992 – is often used to explain elections, one might expect these concerns to be bad news for Kamala Harris and the Democrats, as the party's party. White House.

Donald Trump tried to seize the moment, making his economic record as president, remembered from rosier times, a key part of his pitch to voters.

But as opinions have become increasingly influenced by individuals' political views in recent decades, analysts say it is unclear how much economics will actually play into the outcome of this year's elections .

“Even though the economy is based on numbers, many people's views are partisan,” said Marjorie Connelly, a senior fellow at the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs. “The economy will be a factor, but … I think partisanship will be the biggest factor.”

The AP-NORC poll found that 61% of Democrats say the economy is good, compared with just 13% of Republicans and 28% of independents.

The same poll found that voters were split along party lines on whether they trusted Trump or Harris more on issues such as the cost of groceries and gas or jobs and unemployment.

Although the economy is one of the main election issues, other issues could prove more decisive, Ms. Connelly added.

“I don’t know to what extent people are going to vote on the economy,” she said. “There are other problems.”

What does the data show?

One reason the economy often appears at the top of voters' concerns in polls is simply because it's one of the few areas that large portions of Democrats and Republicans agree on. say that it is relatively important.

Meanwhile, most of the hard data is solid or moving in the right direction.

Gasoline prices are falling, food prices are stabilizing and wages, for at least a year, have been rising faster than prices, which, for many families, is helping to offset the rising cost of the life.

In September, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates for the first time in four years, expressing growing confidence that the inflation problem was easing.

A sharp rebound in job growth in September also eased the concerns of many economic forecasters, who have spent much of the past few years predicting a slowdown that has not materialized.

On Tuesday, the Conference Board reported that its monthly consumer confidence index jumped in October, as confidence in job availability and optimism about business prospects and future incomes increased.

The share of people concerned about an economic recession also fell to its lowest level since the organization began asking the question in July 2022.

Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macronomics, said he thought the improvement in sentiment was likely due to growing optimism among Republicans, who are increasingly confident in Trump's ability to win the election .

But Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board, said she thought it reflected a growing awareness of economic reality.

“The data is the data. What we're seeing is third-quarter GDP was strong, the job market is healthy and inflation is slowing,” she said.

“After several years of volatility, consumers are saying we think inflation is not as intense, that we are not where we were…and that we are not as worried.”

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