From Xi Jinping's power to Anthony Albanese's trade goals: world leaders vie for influence at the G20

Welcome to your weekly federal politics update, where Brett Worthington brings you the latest happenings this week from this week's G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro.

There is no shortage of power grabs, overt or covert, when world leaders come together.

If you're a big dog like the American or Chinese presidents, you book entire hotels.

In Joe Biden's case, a warship even patrolled the waters off Rio de Janeiro's iconic Copacabana Beach while he was in town for the G20, a meeting of the world's largest economies. It’s not a soothing sight for others.

Xi Jinping also had armored military vehicles in front of the hotel which he had taken possession of. And look, when your employee roster hits four figures, you'll need space for them all to sleep.

Plus, you don't get the impression that either manager plans to find themselves waiting for other hotel guests to finish using the elevator before getting their turn.

US President Biden's impending departure from the world stage appears to have led to a heightened sense of struggle among leaders, some of whom, like Chinese President Xi and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, spent a week in South America for summits .

The summits had a 215 pounder (97kg), a faux-tan elephant looming over them.

While Donald Trump may have ducked his weight when he visited Georgia's Fulton County Jail last year, his threats to start a trade war with China and end the Action against climate change is taken much more seriously.

So much so that the Chinese leader found himself, without any irony, calling on an Australian prime minister to advocate for free trade and oppose protectionism when they met this week.

It's like asking a panda not to procreate, that's exactly what he does. Remember, it wasn't that long ago that Xi imposed $20 billion in tariffs on… Australia.

He's certainly not the first politician to find himself proposing something he opposed not so long ago, but we digress.

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Xi Jinping saw his power at the G20 decline

The specter of Trump's return has caused Xi Jinping to force his way through meetings with world leaders.

One of the joys of being a leader for life (not to mention that it's another obvious flexibility) is that you can have world leaders call on your hotel, without having to move of an inch.

It also means that Xi can still position himself in what the AFR's Phil Coorey confidently explains is the position of power when world leaders gather, to the right of a photo, where there is no need to reaching out to shake hands. Diplomacy, hey!

This was also the case on the first day of the G20 summit, when Albanese went to his meeting with Xi just minutes after British Prime Minister Keir Starmer left his.

Xi sat in the room, flanked by some of his most senior advisers, who by double digits were crowded alongside him.

Looking at Albanese, Xi saw a delegation that could have squeezed into a large sedan.

These are the meetings Xi clearly prefers.

At the APEC summit of Pacific nations days earlier in Lima, Peru, Xi snubbed the first group meetings of world leaders, opting instead for private one-on-one meetings with other leaders .

When he was with world leaders for group photos, he largely kept to himself, unlike India's Narrendra Modi, who was like Mr. Everywhere in his dealings with leaders (obviously not with Justin Trudeau, but given their disagreement, which can also easily be filed under obvious flexions).

But back to Xi.

His influence extended far beyond the boardrooms in which he met with leaders. From his hotel at the G20 venue, many people flying Chinese flags cheered him on.

Xi not only came to South America to hold speed dating meetings with up to 30 world leaders, he also came with billions in pledges, eager to curry favor with nations that might otherwise have turned to the United States.

The day before the APEC summit, he met with the Peruvian president to open a Chinese-controlled superport just north of Lima. The port will serve as an important hub for exporting Latin America's agricultural and mining resources directly to China.

If Trump follows through on his threat to start a trade war and impose 60% tariffs on all Chinese goods, Xi hopes he can build a coalition of free trade advocates that could push back the US president, knowing that any action taken against China would likely have repercussions on its own economies.

It's a message that Anthony Albanese has been very happy to champion, but not because Xi Jinping asked for it.

Commerce = jobs and Albanese knows it

Almost every day during his trip, Albanese repeatedly said that one in four jobs in Australia is supported by trade, that Australia supports free and fair trade and that nations should work together and not founder in isolationism.

Of course, the Prime Minister knows he must reassure some at home about the reasons for his absence as they face difficulties with inflation continuing to destroy family budgets.

But he also sensed an opportunity if Trump's threats turned out to be concrete.

Albanese used his time in South America to present Australia as a safe and reliable middle power, a country rich in underground resources and no shortage of sunshine above. He wants the world to see Australia as an emerging clean energy superpower. And yes, in his mind, that means jobs.

The prime minister insisted that Trump did not participate in formal discussions he had with Xi, India's Narendra Modi and the leaders of Britain, Singapore, Brazil, Peru and the EU.

But he couldn't deny that Trump wasn't on their minds during their informal chats.

If Trump is going to leave a void on the world stage, Xi and Modi want to fill it.

It seems that the dominant role of Europeans on the world stage has disappeared, at least for now. Germany's Angela Merkel is long gone and France's Emmanuel Macron is heading for the exit.

Macron was also reminded that he was not in Versailles during the G20, and that he had to resort to demountable toilet blocks on the last day, a scenario in which we could not imagine Xi being involved.

In this environment, it's no wonder that Albanese has made it its mission to repair its relationship with China (not to mention the jobs lost to the trade war inflicted on it by Australia's largest economic partner). ) and further expand its partnership with India.

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He also hears the warning

But it also comes with a warning. Xi and Modi are cozying up to Russian President Vladamir Putin, someone unable to travel to Brazil due to an International Criminal Court arrest warrant issued against him, but that doesn't stop Modi from welcoming Putin to New Delhi in the near future.

While G20 and APEC leaders have found consensus on strengthening global trade and tackling climate change, the same cannot be said for the war in Ukraine.

APEC failed to make progress, thanks to Russia and China, and the language of the final G20 declaration only went so far as to urge nations to be good neighbors. A thousand days after the Russian invasion that resulted in the deaths of innocent civilians, it is clear that we are not talking about Ramsay Street. These neighbors won't become good friends anytime soon.

As of this writing, Albanese's plane is parked on the runway in Rio, preparing to return home. The Prime Minister, perfectly aware that the Coalition likes to nickname him Airbus Albo, assured that he would be back for Thursday's parliamentary session.

As he waited to take flight, other signs of manifest power had appeared.

Joe Biden felt a bit like yesterday's man during the summits.

Sure, he traveled to the Amazon to advocate for greater climate action and authorized Ukraine's use of US-made long-range missiles against Russia, but he's the man who will replace him who seemed the most imposing.

The fact that Biden is the only G20 leader unable to walk up the red carpet to greet the Brazilian president appears to be a metaphor for his position on the world stage. Not only did Xi travel it on foot, but he did so accompanied by a bag carrier, making him the only leader not to do the journey alone.

But at the airport, as Biden prepared to leave Brazil, he still carried the full power of the American presidency. By securing a prime departure spot, he reminded the world that, however diminished, Biden remains the leader of the free world for at least the next two months.

And if his authorization of these missiles for Ukraine is to be believed, he has no intention of being subtle on his way out.