Health
Social distance “may be valid until 2022,” Sage’s study suggests
The Social Distance Expansion Regulations may remain in force until 2022. vaccination Greatly reduces the spread of CoronavirusAccording to a government adviser.
Scientists warned the minister that jabs must be 85 percent effective in stopping Infection; infection As well as a serious illness to prevent another surge in death The Sunday Telegraph report.
The modeling was commissioned by a subgroup of Sage and the treatise was written by a modeler at the University of Warwick. According to their research, even this “best scenario” should remain closed until the end of May.
If Boris Johnson lifts the restrictions next month after the highest-risk groups have been vaccinated, it will drive a surge in deaths, peaking at just under 1,000 people a day.
However, if the vaccine was only 60% effective in preventing the transmission of the virus, the number of deaths per day could reach about 1,500 per day.
The study adds: “Only vaccines that provide high infection control with high uptake in the general population [will] It enables mitigation of non-pharmaceutical interventions without significantly increasing the number of deaths. ”
Experts believe it could be about 60 percent, but it’s not yet clear how effective any of the vaccines is in stopping the infection.
Dr. Sam Moore, one of the authors of the treatise, Telegraph Even a vaccine that is 85% effective does not reduce the R rate of the virus below 1.
“Vaccines are not 100% effective in stopping serious illnesses. So, for example, if 85% of people are vaccinated and they find that they are 90% effective, they are still 25%. That’s the percentage of people who can die from it, that’s a lot of people. ”
Vaccine Minister Nadym Zahawi said data on this topic will be available in the next four weeks, adding: “Then you should be able to plan … see how the vaccine affects your infection, even for hospitalizations and serious infections.”
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