Dr. UAB: The United States may reach herd immunity by the end of spring

Birmingham, Alabama (WIAT) — UAB doctors believe the United States could reach herd immunity in the fight against COVID-19 in late spring or early summer.

Dr. Susanne Judd, an epidemiologist at UAB, said there are many factors to consider. She remains cautiously optimistic about the reduction in case numbers and hospitalizations.

“The more immunized people are, the less the virus spreads and the safer it is for us to interact again,” Judd said.

In addition to Various COVID-19 vaccines Judd, which is distributed throughout the state, also points to the results of a recent study by Columbia University, suggesting that more than one in three people were exposed to the virus to develop natural antibodies.

Judd shared some of the numbers from Alabama.

“I think we’ve seen a total of about 500,000 positive tests. Somewhere in that range, you may already have antibodies to SARSCOV2, even though you’ve never been tested positive for the virus. We’re looking at 1.5 million cases, some of which may have been asymptomatic before, “Jud said.

Scientists believe that 72% of the population needs to be exposed or vaccinated to achieve herd immunity.

Based on these expectations and the population of Alabama, Judd estimated that herd immunity would require exposure or vaccination of approximately 3.5 million inhabitants.

“Current estimates are that in Alabama we will see it sometime in late spring, early summer. It is likely to be somewhere between May and June, but this depends on many factors. “I will,” said Judd.

One of the potential factors, according to Judd, is some of the newer and more contagious variants of COVID. Doctors are currently studying mutations, as they do each year with various strains of influenza.

“There are some mutations that are completely covered by the immune response that the body has already developed,” Judd said. “Mutants are something we have to look at very carefully, as there are other mutations that can escape the immune system and require a vaccine booster or actually lead to reinfection.”

It’s too early for neighbors to disappoint the guards. Judd said it was unclear whether any of the vaccines would actually block the transmission of the virus to others.

Physicians will continue to examine health data to determine if it is safe to relax certain restrictions on meetings.

“There is no magic. Suddenly it’s 72% and it’s safe. We continue to monitor the number of cases per week. We monitor this carefully. That tendency diminishes and per 100,000. It’s less than about 10 or 5, and as long as you’ve done the right tests, you’ll find it safe to get people back, “says Judd.

The model gives hope, but Judd and the Alabama Public Health Service said precautionary measures such as masks, social distance, and frequent hand washing are still important to keep numbers low.

“There is no absolute number of people who believe they are vaccinated to ensure that they have the required level of immunity,” said Dr. Karen Landers of ADPH.

Landers said it was unclear how long the immunity would last and recommended that neighbors be vaccinated even if they had been infected in the past.

“Before we can draw conclusions, we need to continue to track all other indicators of case count, hospitalization, and other relevant information,” Landers said.

Doctors like Judd believe that there is likely to be an isolated COVID outbreak, as well as an influenza outbreak, but light is visible at the end of the tunnel.

“I think there are early signs that people are relaxing and taking action and the case isn’t up yet. So we’re watching trends and always waiting for other shoes to fall, but they still look positive. The fact that people may be a little more comfortable being around other people, “said Judd.

Immune studies need to be done in every corner of the state, including rural areas where access to the vaccine may be restricted or some people are hesitant to take it.

“We need to make sure we have a broad understanding of immunity across states and different communities,” Judd said.

Click for more information on herd immunity from UAB. Here..