As the Solomon Islands warm, Australia is at the center of a big global change along with China and the United States

We hear a lot about the “post-American world” but now we also get a glimpse of “Pax Sinica”. The unrest in Solomon Islands shows us what happens when the balance of power shifts and security and order can no longer be guaranteed.

The images of burning buildings and looting of people are a red flag. Chinese companies are targeted as anger mounts over Beijing’s growing influence in the country.

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The Solomon Islands transferred diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to mainland China. The Pacific Islands, more generally, are at the forefront of Xi Jinping’s vision of the China Dream: China as an unparalleled regional power.

Now Australia has been trained, sending police and troops to help restore order.

It reminds us of how volatile our region is and how what happens across the Indo-Pacific will define global security in the 21st century.

What happens when old certainties are shattered?

Over 20 years ago, international affairs expert Charles Kupchan warned we had to prepare for the end of the Pax Americana. He said history has provided sobering lessons about what happens when old certainties are upset.

At the time, China was still a long way from competing with the United States, and Kupchan was less focused on the threat from Beijing than on the United States’ will and ability to lead a world order. He said nations will have to adapt; the main challenge would be to “wean Europe and East Asia from their excessive dependence on the current hegemony”.

What has happened since? The terrorist attacks of September 11 sparked endless wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the global financial crisis plunged much of the world and the United States into deep recession, and the United States became increasingly and bitterly divided.

Today, after the withdrawal from Afghanistan, the often violent disruptions and upheavals that marked the Trump presidency, America appears as a tired and limited power. Joe Biden tries to reassure his allies that America is back, but the United States cannot project its power the way it once could.

We can make you rich. We don’t care to set you free

And all the while, China has continued to increase. It is already the biggest engine of economic growth in the world and will soon overtake America as the world’s largest economy.

Xi Jinping is taking the opportunity to crack down on his country harshly, crushing dissent while expanding China’s interest abroad. He has shown that he will intimidate nations and use trade as both a decoy and a weapon.

What does a Pax Sinica look like? Well, certainly no commitment to universal human rights standards. China is not so much looking for alliances as it is for transactions. Hence projects such as the massive Belt and Road Initiative and the surge in infrastructure and investment in 70 countries which, by 2040, are expected to increase global GDP by $ 7 trillion per year.

China promises the world what it promises its own people: we can make you rich, we don’t care if we make you free.

The Beijing Consensus would be less about interfering with the internal issues of other countries and more about influencing outcomes that suit China. Simply put: Nations can do whatever they want to suppress freedom, undermine democracy as long as Beijing gets what it wants.

Has China Already Won?

There are already those who come to terms with this new world order. Former Singaporean diplomat and writer Kishore Mahbubani asked if China had already won. He argues that it is “perfectly natural” for China to seek greater recognition and respect. Maybe yes.

Mahbubani says the United States must learn to share power with China. But we must surely ask at what price? Where does the West draw the line?

Taiwan is a flash point. There is more and more talk of war in Beijing, Canberra and Washington. Shadow Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong has accused Defense Minister Peter Dutton of speaking dangerously about the conflict.

But surely, when Xi Jinping says he reserves the right to seize Taiwan by force and intensifies military exercises on the island, then the prospect of war cannot be ignored.

This week, Hugh White, China observer and defense analyst, said we were in “an acute strategic crisis”. He said we have to ask ourselves what the cost of war would be. If the world wants to maintain a world order, argued White, then war is not the answer.

As he warned: “Once the war starts, this order would probably be completely destroyed. But his answer is not to confront China. White said that while our values ​​are important and we might prefer to live under a US-led order, we need to ask ourselves, “are we prepared to go to war with China on this?”

This is where we are: a battle for world order, the prospect of war and whether democracy is even worth fighting for.

This is why the Solomon Islands are important

Australia is at the heart of this great change. He is blocked by Beijing, which is also making a big power play in Australia’s backyard of the Pacific Islands.

That is why the Solomon Islands are important.

It is a great battlefield. Together, the South Pacific spans 13 million people and more than a dozen nations. It is one of the fastest growing regions in the world and faces existential crises like the impact of climate change.

Since the end of World War II, the region has taken American power for granted. The United States has guaranteed stability in the region. Not anymore.

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China has overtaken Australia in terms of bilateral trade with Pacific island countries. In the Solomon Islands, bilateral trade with China now accounts for almost half of the island nation’s total trade.

China has increased its aid to the region. It is building infrastructure and there has been strong speculation about China’s ambitions to develop military bases.

The Brookings Institution assessed China’s growing influence and said that “it certainly helps entrench systems of corruption and patronage.” He warns that “the opportunity, if it ever existed, to keep China out of the region is long gone.”

He says this requires a “coherent resolution” on the part of the West. Australia is crucial. It is still the largest donor and has the greatest diplomatic reach. Brookings says it’s a question of resources versus the resolution. China has the resources and the riches to tempt and influence nations. Does the West have the resolution?

This is the purpose of Australia’s presence in the Solomon Islands: to respond to a friend’s request and to show its determination not to cede the region.

Stan Grant presents China Tonight Monday at 9:35 p.m. on ABC TV, Tuesday at 8 p.m. on ABC News Channel and on iview.