If there is an iron law in politics, it is that people will not vote for parties who do not seem to like them. Yet British Conservatives often seem to hate much of the country they rule.
Conservatives increasingly resemble mourners at their own funeral, angrily denouncing the state of the country they have governed for 14 years. Ministers, MPs and the media are fuming in language that suggests contempt for much of the population.
Nowhere is this more evident than in the visceral reprimands from the capital. Barring a huge shock, they are ready for their third consecutive defeat in the coming weeks, election of the mayor of London. Taylor Swift's breakup track So Long, London could be the campaign song.
It's not just about mayor, although that's a contest where candidates are expected to be competitive and may still be closer than polls suggest. Sadiq Khan, the incumbent Labor president, is seeking a third term with a relatively uneven record under a recently introduced and less favorable first-past-the-post electoral system and amid particular anger over what is described as his anti-motorist program. The national tide may simply be too strong for a Tory in this Remainer citadel, even though more Londoners voted for Brexit than for Khan in the last election. But with the right candidate, it could be vulnerable.
However, the conservatives did not take the trouble to find this candidate. London leans left, but the Conservatives have traditional strength in the outer boroughs. Boris Johnson's mayoral victories are based on this, but also on his obvious affection for the city. After an early plan to choose a modern-minded challenger collapsed amid fumbling allegations, conservatives chose Susan Hall, whose sharp but ineffective speech will struggle to reach beyond the suburban base.
There could be worse to come in the general election, where all Tory seats in central London and many suburban strongholds are under threat as young families move outward in search of affordable housing.
It was not always this way. David Cameron and Johnson were both obviously from the city. Cameron's close allies were known as Notting Hill and they used totemic issues such as same-sex marriage or environmentalism to project a modern image. They were still conservative but seemed comfortable with the times.
Today's party attacks the city's metropolitan values as Rishi Sunak (Kensington Home) and Liz Truss (Greenwich) have turned the north London estate into a line of attack. Public spending per head is still higher than any other region in England, but ministers are reluctant to proclaim it.
In its rhetoric on immigration, the party alienates many people in a young and diverse city. Attacks on Khan have sometimes portrayed him as a demonic figure and pandered to Islamophobia. There is neither optimism nor love for a dynamic metropolis; recent campaigns portray it as a crime-ridden hellhole.
Not all criticism is unfounded. The southeast can be too dismissive of the rest of the country. But turning against the largest and most revenue-generating city is doomed to failure. This also helps explain why polls show you should be over 70 years old before being more likely to vote Conservative.
The Conservatives' difficulties in London are at the heart of the party's dilemma nationally, not least because its hostile instincts are visible in other English cities and towards communities deemed hostile. Turning a country against itself is the tactic of demagogues. While Labor is reaching out to areas of the country it lost in the 2019 election, the Conservatives appear to be restricting the groups they want to win over.
To borrow its own language, the party does not need to wake up to reconquer the cities. Previous leaders have shown that it is entirely possible to follow mainstream conservative values and be viable in the capital.
As important as tone is, with a few exceptions, such as Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, the Conservatives appear indifferent to the needs of the capital. And even Hunt is not shy about unveiling a new non-domicial tax regime that will reduce London's attractiveness to foreign nationals simply to boost Labor's spending plans.. The Conservatives need an economic deal in London. A post-Brexit strategy to attract investment and build homes is essential to closing the social values gap and will be key to any recovery.
Brexit has alienated London voters, not only because of the issue itself, but also because the Conservatives have deprioritized the capital's economic interests, particularly financial services. Conservatives no longer talk about the vibrant, open-for-business city championed by Cameron, George Osborne and Mayor Johnson, which generates jobs and investment. Improving other areas is laudable, but it doesn't excuse that the supposed party of business and growth seems to look down on the city that does the most to boost both.
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The Conservatives also need a convincing housing offer for excluded workers in the capital. Hall half-heartedly supports more high-density housing, but also opposes tricks. And even Michael Goves' rent reforms aimed at improving conditions for tenants are being watered down by Tory MPs.
Sunak's background and style made him an ideal man to turn around anti-London sentiment. But all efforts were drowned out by more strident voices. Meanwhile, Tories who might appeal to London are finding the party less and less welcoming.
Rebuilding these relationships will be a sign that the Conservatives are once again aspiring to become a national party. London will not win a future Tory victory, but being ousted will certainly mean defeat.
