Iran will curb Erdogan's ambitious goals in Iraq, experts say

Kirkuk, Iraq/Washington

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has agreed with Iraqi officials to expand bilateral ties, a move that experts say will be contested by neighboring Iran, which has gained significant political influence in Iraq.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani told a joint news conference with Erdogan on Monday that the 26 memorandums of understanding he signed that day constituted a road map for lasting cooperation between the Iraq and Turkey.

Erdogan, during his first visit to Iraq in 13 years, welcomed these memoranda.

“I believe that my visit and the agreements we signed will mark a turning point in relations between Iraq and Turkey,” he said.

The documents address key issues between the two countries, including security, water management and trade.

The two leaders also witnessed the signing of preliminary agreements between Iraq, Turkey, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates on a 1,200-kilometer highway and railway project known as the development route, which would connect the Persian Gulf countries to Turkey and Europe via Iraq. .

However, some experts are skeptical about Turkey's ability to expand its interests in Iraq. They believe that Iran, as a regional competitor with more influence in Iraq, will ultimately shape Ankara's relations with Baghdad.

“It is questionable whether Iran will accept a NATO member becoming the main protagonist in Iraq and Tehran's competitor,” Sardar Aziz, a researcher at the Emirates Policy Center and former senior adviser to the regional parliament, told VOA of Kurdistan.

Aziz argued that the mandate of the current Iraqi government is coming to an end, which adds even more uncertainty for Turkey.

Prime Minister al-Sudani has only one year left in power and his chances of remaining in his post are very low, he said. Furthermore, no money was allocated in the Iraqi budget for these projects. This makes it impossible for the agreements to last unless Iran accepts them.

Although competition between Turkey and Iran for influence in Iraq is not new, it is Tehran that has had the greatest influence since the US invasion of Iraq in 2003. In 2014, the Popular Mobilization Forces, an Iranian Shiite militia organization in Iraq, have further strengthened Iran's hand in Iraq.

However, experts say Turkey seeks to counterbalance Iranian rule by supporting Iraq's Sunni and Turkmen communities.

According to the Turkish presidency, Erdogan met several representatives of the Turkmen community in Baghdad during his visit to Iraq on Monday. This meeting followed that with the Sunni community in the Iraqi capital.

Hassan Hanzal al-Nasir, an Iraqi writer and journalist in Baghdad, argued that Turkey's influence over Iraqi Sunnis was unlikely to help Erdogan due to a deep division within the Sunni political base, especially after the dismissal of the speaker of the Iraqi Parliament.

The speaker of Iraq's Sunni parliament, Mohamed al-Halbousi, was dismissed from office in November 2023 by Iraq's Shiite-majority Supreme Court over allegations of forgery. Some Sunni political leaders condemned the move, calling it an attempt to further marginalize their community.

“Iraqi Sunni political leaders are confused between Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the Emirates and even Jordan. There is no consensus among Iraqi Sunnis to occupy the position of head of parliament,” he said. al-Nasir told VOA.

Nazar Haidar, director of the Virginia-based Iraq Media Center, said Turkey was exploiting Iraq's sectarian divisions as a negotiating card.

Indeed, the Iraqi public has been shocked over the past two days after seeing photos of President Erdogan meeting with what he called representatives of the Sunni community and representatives of the Turkmen community. It's an extremely dangerous subject, he told VOA.

The Sunni and Turkmen communities see Ankara as a supporting force in the Iraqi political process, and Ankara views the Sunni and Turkmen communities as a negotiating card with the Iraqi government, Haidar added.

Experts predict that Iran's involvement will also complicate Iraq and Turkey's attempts to cooperate on security.

Speaking to reporters on his flight home, Erdogan said Iraqi officials had agreed to cooperate with his government against Turkish Kurdish PKK militants. He said he wanted to see concrete results if Baghdad labeled the PKK a “banned organization.”

Aziz, of the Emirates Policy Center, told VOA: “It appears that Turkey has not achieved its goal of convincing Iraq to recognize the PKK as a terrorist organization.

In practice, Iraq's assistance to Turkey against the PKK is difficult, as the issue has geopolitical and regional dimensions, he said, adding that possible Turkish military operations in Iraq, especially in the town of Sinjar, where the PKK and the PMF operate simultaneously, could lead to direct Iranian involvement.

But Haidar predicts no Iranian objection to a future Turkish military operation against Kurdish militants in Iraq.

Iran will accept such an operation from Turkey because it will give it [Iran] a good opportunity to further strengthen its strategic interests inside Iraqi territory. This will be a mutually beneficial scenario for Iran and Turkey, Haidar said.

This story originated in VOA's Kurdish service.