Politics
UPDATE 1-JPMorgan raises its probability forecast of a no-deal Brexit from 15% to 25
* Probability of a no-deal Brexit: 25% versus 15%
* Article 50 extension: 60% versus 50%
* Withdrawal agreement exit: 15% from 35%.
* 'It's time to be afraid,' says JPMorgan (rewrites headline, adds details)
By Guy Faulconbridge
LONDON, May 21 (Reuters) – U.S. investment bank JPMorgan raised its probability of a no-deal Brexit from 15 percent to 25, saying its base case scenario is that Boris Johnson becomes prime minister, followed by a general election , then a further postponement of the British mandate. out until the end of the year.
JPMorgan increased the probability of an Article 50 extension to 60 from 50% previously and reduced the probability of an exit under the terms of Prime Minister Theresa May's withdrawal agreement from 35% to 15.
In a research note to clients titled “Brexit: It's time to be afraid as the likelihood of a no deal increases,” JPMorgan's Malcolm Barr said the base case scenario was that Johnson becomes Prime Minister in early September.
“Boris Johnson will become prime minister in early September on a 'no deal if you have to' agenda,” Barr said. “The EU refuses its main objective of removing the safety net of the Withdrawal Agreement.”
“The Commons begins the process of legislation to force Johnson to seek an extension of Article 50, and Johnson calls a general election to gain a mandate for his approach,” the note adds.
“The UK and EU agree to extend Article 50 until the end of December to allow time for the general election to take place and the discussions that will follow.”
Nearly three years after the UK voted 52% to 48% in a referendum to leave the EU, it is still unclear how, when or even if it will leave the European club which it joined in 1973. The current deadline to leave the EU is October 31.
Britain's labyrinthine crisis over Brexit has stunned allies and foes alike, and with London deadlocked, the world's fifth-largest economy faces a range of options, including exiting with a deal to ease the transition, a no-deal exit, elections or a second referendum. (Edited by Stephen Addison)
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