Donald Trump's chances of winning the election are diminishing

Donald Trump's chances of winning the November 2024 presidential election are diminishing, according to a new aggregation of polls.

The FiveThirtyEight poll, originally released July 8 and updated July 16, shows Joe Biden has a 53 percent chance of winning the election, while Trump has a 46 percent chance.

According to the poll, Biden is favored to win in 534 of FiveThirtyEight's 1,000 simulations of how the election might play out, while Trump wins in 462. The poll also shows that the simulations indicate Biden is on track for a three-point victory.

The polling site said its forecasts are based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,” such as economic conditions, state partisanship and whether he is in office.

This comes after a presidential poll of 3,601 swing state voters by Redfield & Wilton Strategies found that Trump's margins over President Joe Biden have narrowed since June in two key states: Florida and North Carolina.

Trump had already beaten Biden in both states in 2020, when he held a six-point lead over Biden in Florida in a Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll from June of that year.

But he now has a four-point lead over the current president in Florida. The poll shows that 45% of respondents plan to vote for Trump, compared to 41% for Biden.

This isn’t the only recent poll that gives Trump just a four-point lead in Florida. A Fox News poll from June gave Trump 50% of the vote, compared to Biden’s 46%.

However, polling aggregator Race to the White House gives Trump an average lead of 7.2 points over Biden in the state, with Biden at 41.9% and Trump at 49.1%, while the FiveThirtyEight poll shows Biden has a 50% chance of winning the state, compared to Biden's 45.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump at the Republican National Convention, Tuesday, July 16, 2024. Recent polls show Trump's chances of winning the November election are slipping. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump at the Republican National Convention, Tuesday, July 16, 2024. Recent polls show Trump's chances of winning the November election are slipping. Charles Rex Arbogast/AP

At the same time, the gap between Trump and Biden is also narrowing in North Carolina, where he had a three-point lead over Biden in June. According to a poll by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, his lead is now just two points, with 44% of respondents saying they would vote for Trump, compared to 42% for Biden.

The FiveThirtyEight tracker is equally close, with Trump at 48% and Biden at 46%.

In an article published on their website, FiveThirtyEight said their latest predictions can be explained by the wave of polls in key states that show Biden encroaching on Trump's lead.

“The average poll of key states released since July 6 gives Trump a 1-point lead over Biden, compared to a 2.2-point lead in today’s national polls,” the message added.

The latest poll represents the worst result for Trump since May 20, according to FiveThirtyEight's prediction model.

All of the above polls were conducted or launched before the assassination attempt on the former president on Saturday.

However, polls released after the assassination attempt suggest that his support base is not expanding.

A poll of 2,045 registered voters conducted by Morning Consult on Monday found Trump leading Joe Biden by just one percentage point at 46%, compared to the president's 45%. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points.

The results also show that Trump's lead has narrowed slightly since the firm's last poll, conducted between July 12 and 14, which gave Trump a two-percentage-point lead at 44 percent to Biden's 42.

The week before the shooting, national polls showed Trump as the favorite to win the White House, narrowly leading in all six key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

An ABC News/Ipsos/Washington Post poll released Thursday found Biden and Trump tied among registered voters.

However, the poll also shows that 67% of respondents think Biden should withdraw from the race, while 85% believe Biden is too old to serve as president, up from 81% in April and 68% just over a year ago.

Biden's fitness for office has been in question since his faltering performance in the debate against Trump in June, in which he slurred his words and appeared to lose his train of thought.

Uncommon knowledge

Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

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