Donald Trump's Chances of Losing Florida – Latest Polls

Five days before election day, the latest polls in Florida are unlikely to shake Donald Trump's confidence in his victory in the Sunshine State, which has not voted Democratic since 2012.

While the Republican nominee expected backlash after a speaker at one of his New York rallies compared Puerto Rico to a “floating island of garbage,” Trump appears to have maintained his marginal lead over Kamala Harris in Florida, according to a Cygnal. poll which gave him a five-point lead over Harris.

The investigation, conducted between Oct. 26 and 28 and shared with Florida Politics on Wednesday, covered last Sunday, when comedian and podcaster Tony Hinchcliffe made the racist joke in front of a stunned audience. The comment, which sparked outrage across the country, could have had particularly significant consequences in Florida, which has the second highest concentration of Puerto Rican voters (5.4%) after Connecticut (7.9%). , according to 2023 US Census Bureau data compiled by Axios. .

Former U.S. President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump dances as he leaves a campaign rally in Rocky Mount, North Carolina, October 30, 2024. Former U.S. President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump dances as he leaves a campaign rally in Rocky Mount, North Carolina. Caroline, October 30, 2024. CHANDAN KHANNA/AFP via Getty Images

In Florida, Republican Sen. Rick Scott and Reps. Maria Elvira Salazar and Carlos Gimenez quickly condemned the comment by comedian and podcaster Hinchcliffe, from whom the Trump campaign also distanced itself.

But according to the Cygnal poll, Trump remained relatively unscathed by the unfortunate event, as he maintains his advantage among Puerto Ricans and other Hispanic voters in the Sunshine State.

The poll gives him the support of 50 percent of Hispanic voters, an improvement from 46 percent in 2020. But while he leads by 10 points among Hispanics, his lead shrinks to just two points among Puerto Ricans.

Overall, according to the poll, Trump leads Harris 48 to 43 percent. About 5 percent of likely voters are still undecided. The former president also has an edge among swing voters, with about 35 percent support, compared to Harris' 32 percent support.

Even if the polls remain in Trump's favor, his lead in the Cygnal survey seems diminished compared to a few weeks and months ago, with the gap between the two candidates narrowing. But other polls published recently paint a much rosier picture for the former president.

According to the latest national poll from the Political Communications and Public Opinion Lab (PolCom Lab) at Florida Atlantic University and Mainstreet Research USA, released Tuesday, Trump leads Harris in Florida 53 percent to 44 percent among likely voters. (+9).

An ActiVote poll of 400 likely voters between Oct. 11 and 27 released Monday shows Trump leading Harris by 11.6 percent in the Sunshine State.

How did Donald Trump fare in Florida in 2016 and 2020?

Donald Trump won Florida in 2016 and 2020.

In 2016, the Republican candidate beat her Democratic rival Hillary Clinton with 48.6% of the vote to 47.4%. Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade, St. Lucie, Osceola, Orange, Alachua, Leon and Gadsden counties went for Clinton.

Four years ago, Trump won Florida by a much larger margin, with 51.2% of the vote to Joe Biden's 47.9%. Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade, Osceola, Orange, Seminole, Hillsborough, Pinellas, Alachua, Duval, Leon and Gadsen counties voted for Biden.

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