Donald Trump considers himself a competent negotiator, but Middle East peace may elude him

Donald Trump's re-election as president of the United States last week comes at a time of extreme volatility in the Middle East.

The president-elect has promised to end all wars. In his usual impulsive and unpredictable manner, he pledged to resolve the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of taking office and to help Israel quickly end its operations in Gaza and Lebanon.

Yet the Middle East is a complex place. Trump will have a hard time balancing his ardent support for Israel and his other ambitions in the region, especially given the changing dynamic between Iran and its rival Saudi Arabia.

Here's what Trump can expect when he takes office in a few months.

Collapse of negotiations between Israel and Hamas

Qatar's announcement that it has suspended its role as ceasefire mediator between Israel and Hamas has been overshadowed by the US election.

The small, oil-rich emirate has worked hard over the past year to try to reach an agreement ending the war. In doing so, he has made good use of his close relations with the United States, which has its largest military base in the Middle East in Qatar, and with Hamas, whose political leadership and office are based in Doha. According to Qatar, this would help it gain the trust of the warring parties.

However, its efforts only resulted in a brief ceasefire last year, which resulted in the release of more than 100 Israeli hostages in exchange for 240 Palestinian prisoners.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Doha, Qatar, last month for talks. Nathan Howard/Pool Reuters/AP

There are several reasons for this.

On the one hand, both sides are failing to overcome a few key sticking points. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has decided to completely eliminate Hamas, ruling out a temporary truce. Hamas demands a complete end to the fighting and a total Israeli military withdrawal from Gaza.

Meanwhile, Washington failed to play a significant role in the negotiations. While repeatedly emphasizing its desire for a ceasefire, the Biden administration has at no time exerted tangible pressure on Israel beyond diplomatic rhetoric.

He also refused to suspend military aid to Israel. Instead, he approved a $20 billion ($A30 billion) arms sale to Israel in August. This means that Netanyahu had no compelling reason to turn away from his mission.

A possible ceasefire in Lebanon

As the chances of a ceasefire in Gaza have faded, hopes have arisen for a ceasefire in Lebanon.

Washington is reportedly engaged in intensive diplomatic efforts to bring Israel and Hezbollah to reach common ground to end the fighting there.

Israel wants Hezbollah to be disarmed and pushed back at least beyond the Litani River in southern Lebanon, about 30 km north of the Israeli border, with a security zone to be established between the two. Israel wants to retain the right to strike Hezbollah if necessary, something Lebanese authorities will likely reject.

Israel significantly weakened Hezbollah during its bombing and ground invasion of southern Lebanon, at the cost of massive civilian casualties.

However, just as Israel has failed to eliminate Hamas, it has so far failed to cripple Hezbollah to the point of forcing it to agree to a ceasefire on Israeli terms. The militant group continues to possess enough political and military prowess to remain resilient.

Changing regional dynamics

Today, Trump returns to the scene.

His electoral triumph comforted Netanyahu's government as his Finance Minister, Bezalel Smotrich, asked relevant authorities to prepare for the formal annexation of Jewish settlements in the West Bank.

Trump has long been a committed supporter of Israel. During his first presidency, he recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and ordered the American embassy to be located there. It also recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, which Israel captured from Syria in 1967.

He lambasted Iran as the real villain in the region and withdrew the United States from the multilateral nuclear deal with Iran. He was also the instigator of the Abraham Accords, under which several Arab states normalized relations with Israel.

However, the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, as well as direct military exchanges between Israel and Iran over the past year, have changed the regional texture.

Trump has expressed his unwavering support for Israel against Hamas and Hezbollah, and is likely to restart his maximum pressure campaign against Iran. This could involve strangling Tehran with tough sanctions and blocking its oil exports, while seeking to isolate it internationally.

At the same time, as a transactional leader, Trump also wants to strengthen America's lucrative economic and trade ties with Arab governments in the region.

However, these countries have been shaken by the scale of Israeli operations in Gaza and Lebanon. Their populations are brimming with frustration at the inability of their leaders to counter Israel's actions. Nowhere is this more evident than in Jordan.

As a result, America's richest and most important Arab ally in the region, Saudi Arabia, has recently taken the initiative to express strong opposition to Israel. Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has also made the path to an independent Palestinian state a condition of normalizing relations with Israel.

In addition, Riyadh has been strengthening its rapprochement for more than a year with its main rival, Iran. Defense ministers from the two countries met last weekend, following a joint military exercise involving their navies.

In addition, Bin Salman has just convened a meeting of Arab and Muslim leaders in Riyadh to forge a consensual position in relations with Israel and the new Trump administration.

Where is all this going?

Trump will need to balance his commitment to Israel with maintaining America's close relations with its traditional Arab allies. This will be crucial to ending the wars in the Middle East and pushing back Iran.

Tehran is no longer as vulnerable to Trump's venom as it might have been in the past. It is more powerful militarily and maintains strong strategic relations with Russia, China and North Korea, as well as improved relations with Arab states in the region.

Given the absence of a ceasefire in Gaza, the slim hope of an end to the fighting in Lebanon, Netanyahu's intransigence and Trump's pursuit of Israel's policy of First, volatility in the Middle East is likely to persist.

This could prove to be as much of a headache for Trump as it is for Joe Biden in a very polarized and unpredictable world.

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