Donald Trump's victory threatens to destabilize G20 initiatives

The election of Donald Trump as US president is already threatening international initiatives on climate change and taxation, as diplomats from the world's richest countries struggle to maintain a fragile consensus on the eve of the G20 summit in Brazil.

Argentina and its President Javier Milei, a close Trump ally, have threatened to block a joint communiqué expected to be approved by G20 leaders at the Rio de Janeiro meeting that begins Monday, due to objections related to the taxation of the very rich and gender. equality, people briefed on the negotiations told the Financial Times.

Diplomats were racing to reach a final consensus on statements related to climate finance and geopolitical issues such as Russia's war against Ukraine, the sources said, as leaders began arriving in the Brazilian city.

Negotiators from the 20 participating countries, as well as the EU and the African Union, said a compromise text had been circulated for preliminary approval on Sunday evening, but it was not clear whether all countries accepted it. would finally accept.

Brazilian officials expected bilateral negotiations with the Argentine delegation, a person briefed on the discussions said.

The struggle to agree on developing countries' financial contribution to efforts to combat global warming mirrors negotiations at the UN's COP29 climate summit taking place simultaneously in Baku.

Mileis' stance has heightened concerns among many Western diplomats who fear Trump's election will embolden his conservative allies and trigger an exodus of countries away from ambitious deals on issues such as global warming. Trump has pledged to withdraw the United States from the Paris climate accords.

[The Argentine government] wants to make the G20 in Brazil a test between the old forces and the new, a Brazilian official said. After a year of negotiations on taxation and consensus, they are creating problems on things that they had previously agreed to, word for word.

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, left, welcomes Argentine leader Javier Milei in Florida Carlos Barria/Reuters

Buenos Aires' opposition to the initial draft communiqué prepared by leaders' representatives in the Brazilian city followed Mileis's talks with Trump in Florida on Thursday, in the US president-elect's first meeting with a foreign leader since his victory electoral.

Argentina was the only country to vote last week against a UN resolution denouncing online violence against women and girls.

Sir Keir Starmer, the British Prime Minister, denied that Milei's skepticism about climate change and Trump's imminent arrival in the White House spelled the end of global cooperation on the issue. No, I don't think so, he said.

Starmer, recently returned from UN climate talks in Baku, told reporters on his way to Rio: “One of the reasons I went to the COP last week was because I believes it is important for the UK to show leadership on an important issue.

Asked about Argentina's position, UN Secretary-General Antnio Guterres told reporters in Rio: We are seeing negotiations at the G20, and I ask all countries to have a spirit of consensus. . to turn this meeting into one. of success. If the G20 is divided, it will lose its influence and influence on a global scale.

The Rio summit, where Brazilian President Luiz Incio Lula da Silva will convene discussions focused on fighting poverty, governance reform in international institutions and climate, is the first gathering of leaders of the world's most powerful countries. world since the US election, after many skipped COP29. summit.

Many officials at the event where Lula is to launch a global alliance against hunger fear it will be overshadowed by Trump's opposition to many of its planned conclusions.

Were all supposed to sit there and talk about the future of global cooperation and pretend there wasn't this guy in his way. [to the White House] it doesn't matter, said a European official involved in the communiqué's negotiations. It's hard to see how something decided [here] has a lot of future.

Argentina opposed the inclusion of tax provisions that Mileis' government agreed to last month at a meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors, according to people briefed on the negotiations.

The October Declaration commits to working together for a fairer, more inclusive, stable and efficient international tax system fit for the 21st century, reaffirming our commitment to tax transparency and fostering a global dialogue on effective taxation, including for very wealthy individuals. .

Milei was also opposed to a reference to the Paris agreement and a commitment to remaining united in pursuing the agreement's goals, officials said. Another Argentine point of resistance was the reference to the United States' 2030 sustainable development agenda.

Milei withdrew his team of negotiators from the COP29 summit this week, as negotiators in Baku struggle to make progress on a deal to raise more global funds for climate finance.

The struggle to reach agreement on the G20 communiqué added to existing tensions within the group over Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the war in the Middle East.

Russian President Vladimir Putin will not attend the Rio summit, but his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping is expected to maintain Beijing's stance of blocking Western efforts to condemn Moscow for war against its neighbor.

It will also be the final summit for U.S. President Joe Biden, whose administration has sought to leverage multilateral organizations such as NATO, the G7 and the G20 to find answers to problems such as the war in Ukraine.

So all this work we've done with the United States [under Biden] what do we do with it now? said a senior European diplomat. We have lost the initiative.

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