Labor will regret showing itself unfit to govern

WWith the implosion of his premiership, Boris Johnson observed that: “As we saw at Westminster, the herd instinct is powerful – and when the herd moves, it moves. »

These words will already be familiar to Sir Keir Starmer, who in 2022, in a series of superb performances as leader of the opposition, did so much to bring down the then Prime Minister.

Now he is experiencing first-hand what Mr Johnson experienced: being constantly attacked by his own MPs, many of whom owe their parliamentary seats to his general election victory, and being crushed by a series of ministerial resignations which reached a crescendo when some of his most senior colleagues resigned in protest.

Certainly, the Labor “herd” has moved – with far less justification – and in a way not unlike what ultimately ensured Mr Johnson’s downfall. Indeed, a similar exercise in what might be called gradual regicide ensured Tony Blair’s departure in 2007, although he was skillful enough to avoid an ugly outcome.

Sir Keir proves more stubborn in his tenure than either of his ancestors. That he was also the victim of a political assassination is not inevitable: in a rearguard action, more than 100 backbenchers swore their loyalty to him. However, the pressure is mounting loudly and the discontent is real.

The Prime Minister resorted to a surprising tactic by saying he was not going to go just as the Cabinet was meeting. In fact, he ambushed them – and it was his hijacking of the initiative that made them acquiesce. This gives him a break, but for who knows how long?

There is no point in denying it. More than 81 MPs have now called for him to leave, the number needed to trigger a leadership contest if they were to rally behind a single candidate, which has yet to happen. Some favor Wes Streeting, the Secretary of Health and reputed leading replacement candidate who, in the words of THE IndependentJohn Rentoul’s chief political commentator, said to bring “fluidity, clarity and humor to the serious business of government”, but who is also “sometimes described as smug, too soft, too young (he is 43) and too pleased with himself”.

For all his support among Labour’s soft left, Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, does not have the seat in Westminster to launch a leadership campaign and – after his party’s failure in last week’s local elections – would face a huge challenge if he stood in the by-election.

Angela Rayner, after urging Sir Keir to move further left to stay in power, made it clear she was prepared to stand if the position became available. Separately, Shabana Mahmood’s spokesperson confirmed that the Home Secretary, who was among several ministers who asked Sir Keir to set a timetable for his resignation, now wants to continue her own work rather than applying for the Prime Minister’s.

Which means that all the public denunciations, unsuccessful resignation letters and multiple grievances aired on social media have achieved so far is to create the impression that Labor is unworthy of holding power.

Firstly, basically, they simply demonstrated that while there is great internal disappointment with Sir Keir, it is still not significant enough to oust him. Collectively, they don’t know who they want to replace him. As the Prime Minister forcefully reminded his colleagues around the cabinet table, there is no party mechanism to facilitate a vote of no confidence in the occupier of Number 10. Sir Keir has said he will fight anyone who dares to challenge him.

The second unfortunate aspect that Labor has chosen to flout in front of a dismayed public is how deeply divided it is and how confused the various figures now seeking to supplant an elected Prime Minister are.

Third, if they ever managed to take power on the votes of around 300,000 unrepresentative Labor Party members, there is a good chance that one of the soft left candidates would win and the bond markets would panic – and for good reason. The cost of UK borrowing is already starting to soar in anticipation and, as Sir Keir continues to try to warn his comrades, this is now damaging struggling businesses and households, while increasing the interest burden – around £100bn a year – on the national debt.

None of the likely alternatives to Sir Keir have a compelling alternative strategy for government, and those on the left would implement policies very different from the 2024 agenda on which they have been tasked to govern. The public’s sense of betrayal if he tried to steer the party toward higher taxes, more costly regulation and higher borrowing would keep Labor out of power for years, if not decades.

Returning to Mr Johnson’s farewell speech, the outgoing Prime Minister added, perhaps not entirely sincerely, that: “No one is indispensable, and our brilliant, Darwinian system will produce another leader, just as determined to take this country forward in difficult times.” » It turned out that Britain got Liz Truss.

Regardless of his disastrous growth mini-budget – another pertinent warning from history – his elevation to the leadership of his party, by an estimated 140,000 out-of-touch reactionary conservative activists, has only added to their problems and deepened their unpopularity. Changing leaders didn’t work and when Rishi Sunak arrived the position was unrecoverable.

Labor would do well to avoid unleashing similar demons and making parallel mistakes, not least because they have promised to abolish these stupid psychodramas. They should instead focus on governing and supporting their Prime Minister, as boring as that can sometimes be, and Sir Keir.