What will Trump do next with Iran? : NPR

A banner of President Donald Trump hovers over Iranian Americans and their supporters as they march from the U.S. Capitol to the World War II memorial during a rally Saturday, May 16, 2026, in Washington. Rod Lamkey/AP .

switch captionRod Lamkey/AP

President Donald Trump has staked much of his political identity on his prowess as a negotiator who can bend his adversaries to his will.

But Iran, until now, has been reluctant to this approach. Since the United States and Israel launched military strikes against Iran in late February,

a 38-day military campaign gave way to a fragile ceasefire, a mutual blockade centered on the Strait of Hormuz and a stalled round of negotiations punctuated by Trump’s repeated threats to resume large-scale attacks. For more than six weeks now, the two countries have been locked in a standoff that has shaken global energy markets, regional stability and Trump’s domestic political position.

It has left governments, militaries, businesses and communities around the world asking, “What will Trump do next?” »

On Monday, Trump announced he had canceled a planned military strike at the request of Gulf Arab allies. He then said “serious negotiations were underway”, adding that several regional partners – the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Saudi Arabia – had told him they believed “an agreement would be reached, which would be very acceptable to the United States of America”.

But even as he announced the pause, Trump asked his military commanders to remain on standby for “a full-scale, full-scale attack on Iran, at any time, in the event an acceptable agreement is not reached.” It marked the latest twist in what has become a recurring cycle for Trump during this conflict: a deadline, a threat, a retreat, another threat.

Three of Trump’s main declared war goals – Iran abandoning its nuclear program, halting ballistic missile development and ending support for Iranian-mandated forces in Gaza, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen – remain unachieved.

Iran’s response to this latest pause from the White House has hardly been conciliatory.

“Our armed forces are on the trigger, while diplomacy continues,” Mohsen Rezaei, military adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, said on state television.

Iran’s influence on the strait

At the heart of this standoff is the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas passed before the conflict began. Iran’s effective closure of the waterway, even as the United States continues to impose its own blockade on Iranian ports, has driven up energy prices around the world and created a direct problem for American consumers.

An analysis of national average gas prices by AAA shows that they have increased by more than 50% since the start of the conflict. An AP-NORC poll taken last week showed that only a third of Americans currently approve of Trump’s handling of the economy.

Trump’s decision to use maximum economic and military pressure worked against Venezuela and strained Cuba. But Iran presents a different challenge because of its ability to threaten one of the world’s most critical energy bottlenecks.

Another challenge is that both parties believe that the waiting game will ultimately work in their favor. Vali Nasr, an expert on Iranian politics at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University, told NPR’s Morning Edition that Tehran’s current leadership has drawn a sharp distinction between Trump’s military threats, which Iranian officials view as sincere, and his invitations to take diplomatic action, which they do not.

“Iran doesn’t take it seriously when it says it wants to negotiate,” Nasr said, adding that Iranian officials have interpreted U.S. diplomatic signals as a strategy designed to buy time and sow internal confusion rather than reach a real deal. On several occasions, the United States and Israel have launched attacks against Iran in the middle of negotiations.

No clear endgame

On whether the conflict could turn into a frozen and prolonged stalemate, Nasr said he was skeptical that the current stalemate would persist.

“The Strait of Hormuz cannot remain closed indefinitely, and the United States cannot maintain this blockade indefinitely,” he said, citing the consequences on the broader global economy as well as the limits of American naval capabilities. “I don’t think we’re talking about months – maybe a month.”

Despite its battlefield losses, Iran has managed to keep its governance operations virtually intact and its grip on the strait largely in place. But questions remain about Iran’s long-term nuclear ambitions, which the country’s leaders have long insisted are civilian in nature. Trump has sometimes threatened to destroy them. But the government in Tehran insists on its right to develop peaceful nuclear energy.

The White House, for its part, maintains that its current posture has been successful.

“President Trump holds all the cards and wisely keeps all options on the table,” White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales repeatedly insisted to reporters this week.

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