Reading Xi Jinping’s Mind: A Dialogue

This special series was inspired by curiosity about a simple but increasingly important question: After the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, how might Xi Jinping now think about Taiwan, the United States, and the future balance of power in the Indo-Pacific?

To explore this question, Thinking Taiwan English Edition invited renowned China scholar Andrew J. Nathan of Columbia University to embark on a provocative intellectual exercise: “reading Xi Jinping’s mind.” The result is an imagined reconstruction of how Xi himself might interpret the strategic environment after the summit — from the future of U.S.-China relations to Taiwan’s increasingly uncertain place in the evolving regional order.

We then invited four distinguished scholars from Taiwan to respond from different intellectual and disciplinary perspectives. Contributors include Chien-wen Kou, professor emeritus at the Department of Political Science and the Graduate Institute of East Asian Studies at National Chengchi University; Jieh-min Wu, distinguished researcher at the Institute of Sociology of Academia Sinica; Chen-Dong Tso, professor of political science at National Taiwan University; and Yi-feng Tao, associate professor in the Department of Political Science at National Taiwan University.

The result is a broader dialogue and intellectual exchange on how Taiwan, China, and the democratic world should understand the evolving post-Trump-Xi strategic landscape. At a time of heightened geopolitical uncertainty and shifting assumptions about deterrence, power, and credibility, these essays explore not only how Beijing can see the world, but also how the world should understand Beijing.

Andrew J. Nathan: This is my attempt to imagine what Xi Jinping might think of Taiwan; although I don’t necessarily agree with all the ideas I attribute to him.

Now is the right time to attack. Trump’s weakness was on full display at our summit in Beijing last week. Even before we met, he left security and almost all human rights issues aside when he appointed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to negotiate the summit agenda. This meant that we would focus on even the most trivial trade and investment issues with vague results. I didn’t need to push Trump to say he “opposes” Taiwan independence: he had already damaged enough US credibility before his visit. After he left, he acknowledged that we had talked a lot about Taiwan and that arms sales to Taiwan were on the negotiating table with us. But while on Chinese soil, he did not dare respond publicly to my warning not to cross our red lines in Taiwan. “Stabilization” and “reducing tension” in the relationship benefits us more than the United States, because we are on an upward trajectory anyway. The trade truce leaves us with all the cards we had before.

Certainly, I am impressed by the U.S. military skills deployed in Iran, such as the use of artificial intelligence to provide precise targeting. But Trump knows that I know that Americans are short of weapons because of this stupid war. Even our enemies in Taiwan got the message: Washington will not be able to defend Taiwan until it rebuilds its arsenal. But even then, the United States would only intervene if Trump was prepared to fight. But he only likes to attack weak powers. Iran taught him that even weak powers are not so easy to defeat. In fact, he will pay a heavy price in the midterm elections for his unpopular war.

And China is not a weak power. I once again made him understand that I was serious; our people are determined. We’re close to Taiwan, the US is far away, and most Americans don’t really care. I could attack now and Trump wouldn’t dare fight back.

The Americans seem to think that my purge of top generals means my army is not ready to go. Of course they were corrupt. But I didn’t purge them for corruption, but for lack of preparation. The former generals were divided among themselves on how to attack Taiwan. Their plans were too cautious; they wanted more time to prepare. I’m raising young generals who are tough and ready to fight, who understand modern warfare and, above all, who understand the message: stop fighting among themselves and give me options that will work, from beheading to blockade to invasion. The youngest will do it, and quickly.

But why bother? I have a better plan. I will take control of Taiwan by the end of my fifth term [October/November 2037] and then I will retire. I will go down in history as the greatest Chinese leader, not just in the history of the PRC, but always.

Two trends are in my favor. Of course, Washington’s official policy is what it has always been: using Taiwan to “contain, encircle and suppress” China. But traditional US policy toward Taiwan has become nothing more than empty rhetoric. More and more officials and think tanks know that the United States cannot afford to fight us and that if it tried, it could not win. Of course, the United States would threaten us with sanctions. But we have already decoupled from the United States in technology and trade in every important area. We dominate in most areas of 21st century cutting-edge technology https://itif.org/publications/2025/09/23/how-china-is-outperforming-the-united-states-in-critical-technologies/, accessed 03/28/2026. Similarly, the latest findings from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s (ASPI) Critical Technology Tracker, which assesses 64 critical technology categories across 8 areas (e.g. artificial intelligence and robotics), show that China leads in 57, while the US leads in only 7 technology subcategories. https://itif.org/publications/2025/09/23/how-china-is-outperforming-the-united-states-in-critical-technologies/, accessed 03/28/2026. Similarly, the latest findings from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s (ASPI) Critical Technology Tracker, which assesses 64 critical technology categories across 8 areas (e.g. artificial intelligence and robotics), show that China leads in 57, while the US leads in only 7 technology subcategories. data-tooltip-data=”%5B%7B%22tooltipTitle%22%3A%22%22%2C%22tooltipContent%22%3A%22%20%20https%3A%2F %2Fitif.org%2Fpublications%2F2025%2F09%2F23%2Fhow-china-outclasses-the-united-states-in-criticism cal-technologies%2F%2C%20consulted%202026.03.28.%20Likewise%2C%20according to%20to%20the%20last%20fi results%20from%20Australian%20Strategic%20Policy%20Institute%E2%80%99s%20(ASPI)%20Critical%20Technol ogy%20Tracker%2C%20which%20evaluates%2064%20critique%20technology%20categories%20on%208%20domains%20 (by example%2C%20artificial%20intelligence%20and%20robotics)%2C%20shows%20that%20China%20leader%20in%2,057%2C%20while%20the%20United States%20leads%20in%20only%207%20subcategories%20technology.%22%2C %22placeholderIsSelection%22%3A%22true%22%2C%22placeholderIsSelectionText%22%3A%22%20%20%22%7D%5D”> and, thanks to our enormous engineering strength and government investments, we will soon be ahead in advanced chips and artificial intelligence. They say we need to stop flooding the world with manufactured goods, but there’s still plenty of stuff for them to buy from us, and whatever they don’t buy, we sell elsewhere. Our system works. Theirs fails.

No wonder Washington is full of proposals to step aside and let Asian powers pursue their own interests. But Japan and South Korea will not fight over Taiwan. Taiwanese people read newspapers and think tank reports. They understand the message.

In Taiwan, most voters and both major parties want to maintain the status quo. But it should be clear by now that I’m not going to fall into that trap. The status quo amounts to de facto independence, and I want to put an end to it. I learned from the wars in Ukraine and Iran that the key to defeating a smaller power is not to bomb it again and again, but to erode the will to resist. We put all kinds of pressure on Taiwan, and it works. Voters and politicians are more and more afraid of us.

I have no illusions that Cheng Li-wun (鄭麗文) of the Kuomintang (KMT) and his group want us to take over; they simply think that they can prevent us from increasing the pressure if they assure us that they are against independence. On the other hand, the DPP’s Lai administration wants to arm Taiwan and strengthen its energy and food resilience so that it can, in theory, defend itself without American assistance if necessary. In fact, we know that the Americans encourage them to do so. But they could not get their entire arms budget through the Legislative Yuan. Now Trump is afraid to approve the next arms sales package planned before the summit. Even if Trump authorized more weapons and the LY approved the entire budget, it would take a long time, if ever, to acquire the weapons and train to use them. Even then, we could defeat any so-called porcupine resistance strategy with the weapons and forces we have.

I will maintain military pressure and continue to flood the Taiwanese media with caresses and threats. Some believe that we have so offended the Taiwanese with our diplomatic and military pressure that they will never surrender. But Taiwanese public opinion is changing. Trade and investment with us are essential to Taiwan’s standard of living. Our standard of living along the mainland coast will soon be equal to that of Taiwan. Investments are safe; property rights are protected; the city parks are magnificent; the streets are safe; public transport works; social workers check on retirees to make sure they are safe. We monitor people for their own benefit. There is too much political chaos in Taiwan. Here we provide a wonderful feeling of security. Life is better here than in Taiwan.

People said that our crackdown in Hong Kong had killed the idea that “one country, two systems” would work for Taiwan. But look at Hong Kong now. There is no political disorder and the economy is thriving. People live a happy life, like on the mainland. The Taiwanese see this and will want our way of life.

The key to victory is changing mentalities in Washington and Taiwan. History is on my side. I am 73 years old and my health is good. I have time. As Sunzi said: “To subdue the enemy without fighting is the highest excellence. » Trump is right about one thing: I am “one of the greatest leaders in the world”!