Is Boris Johnson’s Labor version?

Andy Burnham is something of a political chameleon. During his long career, he has held various positions, adopted various political positions, and continues to generate diverse opinions.

Among his friends and allies is Sacha Lord, entrepreneur and chairman of the Night Time Industries Association, who sums up why so many in the Labor movement see him as their political savior.

He said The Independent: “This is probably the first time we could have a Prime Minister who you can have a normal conversation with, because you know, everyone else seems so inaccessible and so distant, whereas Andyover the years of knowing him, he will stop and talk to absolutely anyone.

For those who think these descriptions are reminiscent of a recent experience, they are not wrong. This is exactly what was once said about Boris Johnson, before his famous fall.

Anyone who joined Mr Johnson on the Vote Leave bus and saw him mobbed by people wanting selfies with him in every town he arrived in, the sight of the Burnham high-five in Makerfield has a very familiar ring to it.

After all, it was a great story: a leading Westminster politician leaves Parliament to become mayor of one of Britain’s biggest cities; achieved cult status; Riding a wave of popularity – both in the House of Commons and among voters – he returns to Parliament to return to government and eventually succeed a deeply unpopular leader and become Prime Minister.

For Mr Johnson, the London mayor who supplanted Theresa May, now read Mr Burnham, the ‘King in the North’ who could, if he gets his way, replace Sir Keir Starmer.

But the similarities go much further.

Great political instincts

Like Mr Johnson, Mr Burnham has fantastic political instincts, high emotional intelligence, enormous likeability and charisma, but he is incredibly chaotic behind the scenes and very difficult to pin down in terms of what he believes.

A former senior Work adviser who worked alongside Mr Burnham in Manchester described his approach.

“His political instincts are incredible, you can’t teach this sort of thing. For example, he came in as mayor promising to end homelessness and rough sleeping and quickly realized it was impossible. But he quickly changed course, worked with charities, set up all kinds of programs and projects and was able to sell it as a success.

“He moved on to buses, brought them back into public ownership. He is very good at attaching himself to every success and never misses an opportunity to speak on behalf of Manchester.”

In London we have “Boris bikes”, in Manchester they are now “Burnham buses”.

Does Burnham believe in anything?

However, political instincts and personality politics come with a conundrum. What does Andy Burnham really represent? This was a question often asked about Mr. Johnson.

The former London mayor wrote pro-Leave and pro-Remain articles to decide which side to support in the EU referendum. He opted for leave in what appeared to be a simple attempt to gain the right to support him in his leadership race.

He became prime minister on a pro-Brexit ticket after promising to “take back control” of Britain’s borders, but immigration exploded under his tenure in what is known as the “Boris wave”. He also refused to tackle the culture wars agenda desired by the conservative right. He even defended net zero, much to their frustration.

Meanwhile, Mr Burnham is making more and more U-turns, whether on returning to the EU, a policy which suddenly no longer pleases him as he fights the election in the very pro-Leave constituency of Makerfield. He’s also given up on rewriting Rachel Reeves’ economic policy and is no longer as passionate about electoral reform as he once was.

It’s career-defining. The running joke about him is about how he switches political positions so easily: a Blairite, a Brownite, a Milibandite, a Starmerite, an insider and an outsider walk into a bar. The bartender asks, “What are you eating, Andy?!”

At the beginning of by-election campaign, a source close to the Prime Minister stressed that Mr Burnham’s hopes of pleasing factions from the Socialist Campaign Group and Mainstream on the far left to Blue Labor on the right were unsustainable.

“Andy can’t hold his own on personality alone. He’s going to have to make decisions about positions and compromises. That’s going to annoy different fans,” they said.

And when he disappointed his ardent left-wing supporters by promising not to deviate from Shabana Mahmood’s tough immigration policies, there was a dose of realism from a left-wing ally explaining why it was better for him to keep Sir Keir or turn to Wes Streeting or Angela Rayner.

“It was a choice between castration or cutting off the left hand. Neither of them was painless,” the MP said matter-of-factly.

But Mr Lord believes the Manchester mayor has shown himself to be a man of principle.

“His policy is about people,” he says, highlighting how the bus policy was designed to help bar staff working until the early hours in Manchester’s nightlife get home without losing half their wages.

“I remember how he was influenced by a young woman who worked in a bar who talked about having to bring taxis home, which helped shape night buses and the £2 cap on bus fares.”

A chaotic approach to politics

But others worry about Mr Burnham’s chaotic approach and lack of team – again, traits of a former senior party adviser associated with Mr Johnson.

They said: “The problem is he’s so disorganized. It reminds you of Boris. He doesn’t get to an event on time, he’s always late.”

Mr. Lord gives one reason: “He’s well known for always being 25 minutes late, but that’s because he spends time talking to everyone at previous events. Like I said, he’s very people-oriented.”

Mr Lord described how the mayor would delay his departure so he could help staff put tables and chairs back after an event “instead of just thinking he’s too important” – the kind of quality his supporters see as a key difference between him and Mr Johnson.

But the lack of a big team behind him as he prepares to enter Downing Street is a bigger concern.

The same problem befell Mr Johnson, who was forced to recruit Michael Gove’s aides, principally Dominic Cummings as his chief of staff. It ended in disaster.

The former Labor aide noted: “The real problem is that Andy actually has a very small team. It’s basically Kevin Lee, his chief of staff who has known him since university and the rest are from the Greater Manchester Combined Authority (GMCA). You have to wonder who he will recruit when he comes to Downing Street.

“Given that he will not have the support of a majority of MPs and short time, it might be difficult to recruit good people.”

The real problem is what has changed? Mr Johnson was not Prime Minister until he found popularity in London as mayor and it now appears the same applies in Manchester for Mr Burnham.

A politician reborn

Mr Burnham has come a long way since his last term as an MP, when he lost his second leadership election bid in a race he was expected to lose. He showed himself to be timid and unambitious, ultimately defeated by Jeremy Corbyn, and left for Manchester very diminished.

He is now Labor’s most popular figure in the polls, the only man who could beat Nigel Farage.

“I think Andy would be the first to admit that he has changed and learned since becoming mayor,” Mr Lord said.

“Being Mayor of Manchester has been a real opportunity and learning experience for him. We have seen it in the hospitality sector. It meets our needs as a major part of the economy in a way that others cannot.

“In my opinion, he is ready to become prime minister. The country needs him.”