Xi-Trump summit met modest expectations

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The May 2026 US-China summit in Beijing attracted worldwide attention. But its results were disappointing for many: no comprehensive trade deal, no joint communiqué, no progress on Taiwan and no joint action to end the war between the United States and Iran. So how do we evaluate this summit? What impact will this have on the future of Sino-US relations?

There are two different points of view regarding the evaluation of this summit: one considers it a great success, while the other considers it a failure.

Those who believe the summit was a success mainly point to the achievement of a strategic consensus. The two sides agreed to build a relationship of “constructive strategic stability”. This may be the first time the United States has adopted a Chinese conceptualization of a desired relationship between the two countries. It sets the tone for healthy competition, stability and “mutual benefit” in bilateral relations in the years to come.

Practical progress has also been made in the area of ​​economic cooperation. In addition to extending the suspension of announced rates, both parties concluded procurement agreements for agricultural products, airliners and crude oil. The United States has also committed to supplying China with civil aircraft components and engines. This helps stabilize trade relations between the two countries.

The summit also produced breakthroughs in the area of ​​trade and investment management. The two countries established a U.S.-China Business Council and a U.S.-China Investment Council to manage day-to-day bilateral trade and investment issues, helping to promote cooperation. The two sides agreed to deepen people-to-people exchanges in the fields of education and tourism. The leaders demonstrated a mutual willingness to cooperate on international issues. Both sides expressed their desire to strengthen consultations on topics such as promoting a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and managing risks related to artificial intelligence.

The atmosphere at the summit was harmonious. In their dinner speechThe two leaders reviewed friendly interactions in the history of the two countries and expressed their willingness to work together to improve relations – a rare sight in recent official bilateral interactions. The leaders will meet three more times during the year, including during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s state visit to the United States in September 2026.

In summary, those who support the vision of “success” believe that this summit consolidated the trend towards the stabilization of bilateral relations.

Those who argue that the summit failed point to its various omissions, starting with the failure of the two countries to reach a comprehensive trade deal. The two parties also failed to reach a joint statement, a striking contrast to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s state visit to China a few days later. The lack of a joint statement shows that the United States and China remain too far apart to reach an agreement on some fundamental issues.

The American concessions resulting from the summit did not meet the expectations of the Chinese public. Contrary to the expectations of many Chinese, the United States has not made any substantial concessions on the Taiwan issue. The United States has not made any statements regarding the status of Taiwan or cross-Strait reunification, and U.S. President Donald Trump has not even committed to reducing arms sales to Taiwan.

For some in the United States, Chinese concessions have also fallen short of their expectations. For example, Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural products were consistent with historical levels. China also agreed to buy only 200 Boeing passenger planes from the United States, far less than the planned amount. previous rumor 500. US restrictions on high-tech exports to China have remained unchanged and decoupling in this sector is expected to continue.

Overall, the Trump-Xi meeting was quite successful. The reason why some people feel disappointed is mainly because they had unrealistic expectations of the summit.

To assess the success or failure of the summit, one must consider its context. After years of conflict and confrontation, Sino-US relations are now characterized by suspicion and hostility. As soon as Trump was inaugurated for a second term, the two countries began a bitter tariff war. Although bilateral relations stabilized somewhat after both sides resorted to diplomacy, relations before the summit were still full of friction and uncertainty.

It is against this backdrop that the summit achieved the above results and laid the foundation for the stabilization of bilateral relations in the years to come. This allows relationships to move from overall confrontation to managing differences and promoting cooperation. That in itself is quite an achievement.

Future bilateral relations still face multiple and serious challenges, and there is no reason to be too optimistic.

The United States remains very concerned about the rise of China. As China rapidly catches up in high-end manufacturing and high-tech research and development and the power gap between China and the United States narrows, American anxiety is likely to rise even further. In this context, the United States will likely adopt measures to strengthen controls on high-tech exports and strengthen supply chain security. In response to such U.S. moves, China is also likely to retaliate and step up local research and development for its own security. As a result, the conflict is likely to continue and even intensify.

After a long period of confrontation, there is very little trust left between the two sides. Even if the leaders of the two countries wish to cooperate on issues of common interest, they will face strong domestic resistance.

The political climate in the United States remains tense. The political consensus in Washington is to be tougher on China, and Trump’s relatively pragmatic policy toward China is not widely accepted. Many people within the US government will try to undermine cooperation between the two countries. The US Congress will continue to introduce anti-China bills and resolutions. Conflicts between some US allies and China will also impact Sino-US relations. With the overall goal of strategic competition with China unchanged, it is highly likely that US departments will continue to introduce policies that China interprets as confrontational, undermining the stability of bilateral relations.

Although the Trump-Xi summit brought some stability and potential for cooperation, stability remains fragile and cooperation difficult to achieve. Developing constructive strategic stability requires both leaders of the two countries to do more to manage their relations, as well as greater efforts, both inside and outside their governments, to implement the summit consensus, manage differences and cooperate. The road ahead promises to be strewn with pitfalls and tortuousness: it is only by working together that the two countries will be able to build a future of peace, stability and prosperity.

Jia Qingguo is a professor at the School of International Studies, Peking University.