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Turkey seeks to profit from Iran war as Middle East order shifts

Turkey seeks to profit from Iran war as Middle East order shifts


An article published in The telegraph in the United Kingdom says that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan “is the real winner of the war in Iran”. The argument is that the Turkish leader has suppressed his domestic opposition while the world is focused on the war with the Islamic Republic of Iran. It’s an interesting argument. However, Turkey’s benefits from the conflict – and how it may reshape Ankara’s politics – are more complex than the question of local opposition in Turkey.

Turkey has sought to stay out of the Iranian conflict. It is unclear whether Ankara presents itself as neutral or seeks to present itself as similar to most European and NATO powers, which have also stayed out of the war.

In any case, it did not attract criticism from the White House. This contrasts with European countries, as well as Oman, which have been criticized. Ankara is also not mobilizing to play the mediation role sought by Pakistan and Qatar.

As such, Turkey finds itself in a unique position, although this is nothing new for Ankara, which has often set its own independent policies. Even though Turkey is a member of NATO, it has stayed away from major global conflicts since the end of the First World War.

It should be remembered that the Ottoman Empire entered this war on the side of Germany and Austria-Hungary. Among the initiatives that convinced the “Sublime Porte” to enter the war was the sending of German warships. Breslau And Goeben in Türkiye, replacing the ships that the Turks had ordered from Great Britain. Ankara then joined what would become the losing side in the war, which led to the collapse of the empire and the emergence of modern Turkey.

Perhaps this is why modern Turkish nationalism has often sought to stay out of major conflicts. She was able to avoid World War II. During the Cold War, Turkey became a member of NATO and a friend of the United States and the West. However, Turkey remained concerned about the direction of the global war on terror after 9/11, wary of the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq.

Since then, Turkey has been led by the Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi (AKP) – Justice and Development Party – with Islamic and conservative roots and linked to the Muslim Brotherhood.

This contrasts with the secular nationalist Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi (CHP) – Republican People’s Party – which ruled Turkey for much of the 80 years from 1923 to 2003.

Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan arrive for a joint news conference at the presidential palace in Ankara, Turkey, February 4, 2025.
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan arrive for a joint news conference at the presidential palace in Ankara, Turkey February 4, 2025. (credit: REUTERS/CAGLA GURDOGAN)

The AKP initially sought to make Turkey more economically prosperous and even considered moving closer to the European Union. However, over time the AKP became more authoritarian and interventionist abroad. This peaked in the years 2015-2020, during the Syrian civil war.

In recent years, Turkey has become slightly less aggressive abroad. It still has its interests in Syria, Libya and the Eastern Mediterranean, as well as a global posture that sees Ankara as a link between the Islamic and Turkish worlds. However, he views the changing world order and attempts to exploit the power vacuum with apprehension.

Turkey seeks ties with US as Trump administration zigzags

The Turkish leader has sought to cultivate close ties with the Trump administration, although he may also find that the White House sometimes zigzags on policy.

In 2025, the US administration sought to end the war between Israel and Hamas and reach peace agreements. However, in 2026, it becomes more interventionist, particularly with the war in Iran, as well as very critical of some of its traditional allies. The United States is also very close to Israel, and Ankara is probably wary of it.

Some articles have appeared in pro-Israel circles suggesting that Turkey is the “next” Iran. This has raised eyebrows in Ankara, which appears to fear that Israel is seeking regional hegemony. As a NATO power with a vast defense industrial base, Turkey can imagine a potential clash.

How could the confrontation evolve? This could develop due to tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean. It could be in Syria. Ankara is aware of the realpolitik that leads regional powers to clash and has therefore sought to improve its ties with Saudi Arabia and the Sunnis. The development has sparked more concern in Jerusalem that this bloc of Sunni countries could replace Iran-backed proxies or the “Shiite crescent.”

This is where Turkey is moving more cautiously. Rather than denigrate Israel – as Ankara did in 2024 – using the war between Israel and Hamas as an excuse, Turkish politicians are taking more of a “wait and see” approach.

Ankara’s repression of the national opposition is not new. The AKP has long sought to eliminate what it claims to be a “deep state” by carrying out mass arrests of opponents. It has targeted left-wing Kurdish political groups, students, Europe-linked NGOs and now also the CHP. The latest target is Ozgur Ozel, leader of the CHP.

“Turkey is emerging as a long-term winner in the US-Israeli war with Iran, which has given Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish president, the opportunity to accelerate an anti-democratic rollback without global repercussions,” says the Telegraph.

“Not only did he seize the opportunity to suppress his opposition while the world’s gaze was turned away, but he also managed to strengthen Turkey’s position on the world stage.”

US Ambassador to Türkiye Could Play Role in US Iraq Policy

Many problems now face Turkey. Ankara is working on a possible agreement with the Partiya Karkeren Kurdistane (PKK) – the Kurdistan Workers’ Party – which would see that party dissolved.

It is also working on an agreement with Armenia. She balances her support for Ukraine while also working with Russia. Ankara also seeks to help Syria become a strong state.

The US Ambassador to Türkiye, Tom Barrack, was also the US envoy to Syria until his term recently expired. It appears that Barrack may play a role in US policy in Iraq. This would also please Turkey. However, there are many criticisms leveled at Barrack, including supporters of the Syrian Kurds and others.

“Erdogan ruled Turkey for almost a quarter of a century, consolidating his power in the country, particularly in the periods immediately following political challenges – mass protests in 2013 and a military coup in 2016, both of which were stopped by authorities with deadly force. » The telegraph Remarks.

“More recently, major protests erupted in March 2025 after the arrest of Mr. Erdogan’s main political opponent, Ekrem Imamoglu, mayor of Istanbul. Under Mr. Erdogan, Turkey – which has NATO’s second largest army after the United States – has become the world’s 11th largest exporter of weapons, particularly drones, which have been shipped to many countries from Ukraine to Libya.”

The outcome of the Iranian conflict is unclear. Ankara is waiting to see what happens. US pressure on Gulf countries and Turkey to adhere to the Abraham Accords has certainly raised eyebrows in Ankara. Turkey has consistently said it could tone down its rhetoric toward Israel if the war in Gaza ends and Israel accepts the two-state concept. This is also the view of Saudi Arabia. Israel’s current coalition government will never make this decision. However, Turkey is willing to wait and see what the elections might bring to Jerusalem.

Turkey will also have elections and the opposition may do well. Nothing lasts forever and both Jerusalem and Ankara’s current policies could change. The war in Iran could therefore unfold differently than expected.

Sources

1/ https://Google.com/

2/ https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-897890

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