This is what Trumpian self-dealing looks like

The move comes as the CFTC expands its oversight role into another rapidly developing sector in which the Trump family has even greater financial interests: crypto. According to the watchdog group Public Citizen, World Liberty Financial, a new age financial company that issues crypto tokens and stablecoins, and which Trump co-founded in 2024, has created more than $1 billion in equity and cash inflows for him. Trump’s two eldest sons are co-founders of American Bitcoin, a company that mines bitcoins and accumulates them in its treasury. Under the CLARITY Act, which awaits Senate approval, the CFTC would be granted exclusive jurisdiction over all “digital products,” a category that includes Bitcoin, Ether and Solana. “Similarly, and more importantly,” Trump continued in his Truth Social article, “where we are currently the crypto capital of the world (Bitcoin, etc.), other countries are diligently trying to replace us in that capacity, but we will not let that happen. This is a major industry and we need to protect it. Mike Selig, Chairman of the CFTC, and widely respected, is doing a great job.”

The CFTC now faces challenges on two fronts: not only from states, but also from media revelations about how its enforcement division has been neutralized since Trump took office. Days before the president posted his speech online, the Times published an article describing how, since early last year, the CFTC has “cut its workforce, purged career officials, sharply reduced crypto enforcement, and helped predict markets at virtually every turn.” A veteran agency employee who became acting head of its enforcement division before retiring last year was quoted as saying, “This is really the first time politics has affected the CFTC in such a dramatic way.” »

In the legal battle with the states, the central question is whether buying or selling an “event contract” on Polymarket, for example, based on Novak Djokovic winning his next match, is the same as betting on a site like DraftKings or FanDuel, or at your neighborhood sportsbook. States claim this is the case. Prediction platforms and the Trump administration argue that bets are event contracts subject to CFTC jurisdiction. So far, courts in various parts of the country have issued conflicting decisions. The dispute appears likely to go all the way to the Supreme Court, and some independent observers expect prediction markets to end in a loss. “We continue to give the states the advantage in this fight because states have long been responsible for regulating sports gambling,” Jaret Seiberg, an analyst at investment bank TD Cowen, wrote in a note to clients last week. “The litigation could still take two years or more to fully play out. »

Meanwhile, what’s happening at the CFTC looks like a classic case of what economists call regulatory capture, where special interests effectively take control of a government agency, which then advances their interests. The Biden administration had expressed concerns about the operation of prediction markets: in January 2022, the CFTC forced Polymarket to pay a $1.4 million fine for operating an unregistered “contract market.” Subsequently, the agency, in conjunction with the Department of Justice, investigated whether Polymarket had violated this regulation by accepting bets from persons in the United States. In November 2024, FBI agents raided the apartment of Polymarket’s young founder, Shayne Coplan. After Trump took office, the CFTC reversed course, closing its investigation last July without filing any charges. A month later, Polymarket announced that 1789 Capital had made a strategic investment in the company and that Trump, Jr. had joined its advisory board.

Some career CFTC officials have attempted to exercise some independence. Last year, two top enforcement division officials questioned Polymarket’s steps to prevent fraud. But, according to the Times account, those officials were eventually purged.

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