Persecution of the opposition, economic chaos and the India-Greece-Cyprus-Israel axis

A deep political crisis is shaking Turkey after the court decision which canceled the 2023 congress and dismissed the leadership of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), the main opposition force.

The violent images emanating from Türkiye The assault by repressive forces on party offices with tear gas and rubber bullets has sparked intense social outrage, especially among young people, who call it a “judicial coup.” The affair has gone beyond the stage of a conflict within the party and is evolving into a major conflict over the democratic legitimacy of the country.

Political analysts believe this intervention reflects the concern of the President’s government Recep Tayyip Erdogan (AKP) on the decline of popular support, with the ultimate aim of eliminating popular opponents, notably Ekrem İmamoğlu and Mansur Yavaş.

Economic damage and energy shock

Political uncertainty weighs on an already fragile Turkish economy, facing a lingering debt crisis and external vulnerabilities. The Turkish lira is once again under pressure, with the dollar surpassing 45.9 lira, while the energy shock of the war in the Middle East and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to affect it.

The surge in oil prices to $110-120 per barrel inflates import costs and keeps inflation above 32%.

Even if the Central Bank maintains interest rates high at 37% and intervenes by spending billions on foreign exchange and gold, economists warn that the situation of “controlled decadence” is not sustainable in the long term.

The country’s total borrowing needs are expected to increase by 62%, to 6.382 billion pounds, due to debt maturities and rising refinancing costs.

Scenarios of early elections and demographic impasse

In this context, analysts believe that Erdoğan does not intend to relinquish power after the end of his term and is looking for ways to circumvent constitutional restrictions. Taking advantage of article 116 of the Constitution, the Turkish president attempts to obtain the support of three-fifths of the National Assembly from small parties and independent deputies.

They believe that the split in the CHP facilitates Erdoğan’s plans, which could lead the country to early elections in the fall of 2027 to obtain a new full five-year term. At the same time, he notes that in Turkish tradition, succession is determined by the strongest factor, leaving open the possibility that Ekrem İmamoğlu could emerge as successor in the future, with the tolerance of the system itself.

A deep demographic problem is exacerbating the internal crisis, with the birth rate having fallen to 1.42 children per woman, well below replacement level. It falls to 1.2 children per woman if we exclude regions with a Kurdish majority.

Economic hardship and the high cost of living in large urban centers are forcing young couples to delay marriage and start smaller families, a trend the government calls a “national threat” to the country’s economy and prosperity. military force.

The draft law on maritime zones and the Greek position

In the field of Greek-Turkish relations, it is reported that after the Kurban Bayram holiday, the Turkish draft law on maritime zones is expected to be presented for passage. Although this is domestic legislation, it could have practical consequences for Greece and Cypruswhich recalls the casus belli of 1995.

The appropriate response to Turkish demands is not escalation but the consistent exercise of rights guaranteed by international law, the activation of alliances and the maintenance of clear “red lines”, which Ankara has historically tended to respect when applied with determination.

Geopolitical concerns around the India-Cyprus-Greece-Israel axis

In foreign policy, Ankara observes with obvious concern India and Cyprus deepen their strategic relationship, sealed by the Roadmap for Defense Cooperation 2026-2031. Nicosia plans to acquire advanced Indian weapons systems, such as the BrahMos hypersonic missiles, in what would be New Delhi’s first defense deal this year. Eastern Mediterranean.

This development, combined with India’s strong support for Israel – which Benjamin Netanyahu recently praised – serves as a counterweight to the Turkish-Pakistani alliance.

Turkish analysts are concerned that India’s similar defense approach towards Greece, as well as the possible deployment of BrahMos missiles in the Aegean Sea, could upset the balance of power and pose a serious challenge to Turkish air defense, including the S-400 systems.

India’s strategic shift is also evident in the South Caucasus, where Yerevan, after the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh, is investing heavily in Indian weapons and Sukhoi Su-30MKI fighters in response to military cooperation between Pakistan, Turkey and Azerbaijan.

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