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Breakingviews – Trade feuds will take on a new green hue

 


A man walks by as smoke rises from the chimneys at a power station in Hefei, Anhui province, November 24, 2011.

LONDON (Reuters Breakingviews) – Trade feuds will take on a different tinge after Donald Trump leaves. Imposing tariffs on countries out of the blue is not in the style of US President-elect Joe Bidens. But its determination to tackle climate change could emerge as a new source of trade tensions.

Biden wants the United States to join the 2015 Paris Agreement to reduce global emissions and achieve net zero emissions by 2050. But his goal isn’t just domestic. Democrats’ election promises included a plan to apply a carbon adjustment tax to countries that fail to meet their climate and environmental obligations. He also said he would push for labor provisions in any trade deal his administration negotiates.

Keeping those promises could pave the way for further tensions with China, which accounted for just over 14% of the combined $ 3 trillion in imports and exports reported by the United States of the year through October. . Certainly, President Xi Jinping agrees with the need to fight climate change. In September, he called for a green revolution and for the first time set a target date by which the world’s largest emitter of carbon dioxide would achieve carbon neutrality. But what Biden sees as pro-green, pro-work policies, Xi could see as unreasonable hurdles that will hurt Chinese exporters.

Global trade agreements generally leave the door open to differing interpretations and disputes. Countries can take action to protect the environment, human health, and animal or plant life as long as unnecessary trade barriers are not erected, in accordance with World Trade Organization rules. And America is not the only country that can play the green card.

China said in November that some imported coals did not meet environmental standards. For Australia, whose coal exporters find their shipments stranded at Chinese ports, it was one in a series of punitive trade measures Beijing has taken since Canberra called for an independent investigation into the origins of the coronavirus.

Trump was as adept at annoying traditional allies such as Europe and Canada as he was long-term rivals like China. But partners in the Americas in the West would likely support any push by Biden to promote environmental standards, especially those they think they already meet. A fight that pits developed countries against emerging countries could be as ugly as those the outgoing president unleashed on the world.

– This is a Breakingviews prediction for 2021. To see more of our predictions, click here

Breakingviews

Reuters Breakingviews is the world’s leading source for financial agenda-setting information. As the Reuters brand for financial commentary, we dissect big business and economic stories as they circulate the world every day. A global team of around 30 correspondents in New York, London, Hong Kong and other major cities provide real-time expert analysis.

Sign up for a free trial of our full service at https://www.breakingviews.com/trial and follow us on Twitter @Breakingviews and to www.breakingviews.com. All opinions expressed are those of the authors.



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