Fantasy Football: Research into the use of running backs

Running backs don't always need a third down: Running backs who fill both the early down role and the short-yardage, goal-line, and two-minute drill roles are still consistent fantasy starters.

The decline of the feature running back: Nine years ago there was a sharp decline in feature returns and not much has changed in that time.

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Estimated reading time: 9 minutes

After including running back usage charts in recap articles and on social media in recent years, the idea was to dig deeper than the snap counts to see how running backs were used to better understand each running back. For example, Tyjae Spears led the Tennessee Titans backfield in snaps in Week 10, but that was because they played more third-down and two-minute snaps than normal. Spears and Derrick Henry's roles didn't change much in Week 11, but Henry was back on top of the snaps thanks to the game script.

This article takes a closer look at the different roles running backs have and what this means for fantasy football.

Which roles score the most fantasy points?

For every NFL game since 2006, I've figured out which running back took the most snaps on early downs, third downs, on the goal line, in short yardage and in two-minute drills. A feature back was categorized as someone who led the team in all five categories in a match. Everyone who finished first in 1-4 categories was given a role based on when they finished first. Anyone who didn't finish first in something but had the second-most snaps was given the primary backup role. Third in snaps was secondary reserve and fourth was tertiary reserve.

Below are the 16 most common roles with the average fantasy points someone scores in that role, and the percentage of games in which someone in that role finishes as a top-12 or top-24 fantasy running back.

It’s no surprise that feature backs score the most fantasy points. They end up being a top-24 fantasy running back more than 70% of the time and are the players worthy of first-round fantasy picks. Christian McCaffrey, Travis Etienne Jr., Rachaad White, Kyren Williams, Saquon Barkley And Tony Pollard all played this role in at least half of their games last season, with every other defenseman starring in six or fewer games. Unsurprisingly, four of these running backs finished in the top seven last season, and all six finished in the top fourteen.

What's surprising is that players who play every role except third downs are almost as good and even better on average in standard leagues. Joe Mixon fit into this category for the most matches in recent seasons. Derrick Henry, Naje Harris, Jos Jacobs And James Conner they don't always see the two-minute drill. Mixon and Henry both finished in the top eight running backs last season.

The next few categories all start to see a significant drop in fantasy points per game and how often they are fantasy starters. They all have the early role but start to lose situations like the two-minute drill, goal line, or short-range shots.

Naje Harris had the worst fantasy performance of any running back named thus far. Over the past three years, he has had 37 games in the top three categories, which is the most for a running back. This included 17 games in 2021 in which he was the feature back every week before Jaylen Warren joined the team. He's had mostly all but third downs the past two seasons, but especially during the last four weeks of the season, Warren also had the two-minute drill and sometimes a short yardage or goal-line catch.

While most of this is simple, it is clear that the early down roll is far more important than the third down roll, even if it is a passing competition. It is better across the board to play the early down roll and nothing more than anything but the early down roll.

The decline of function returns

While the obvious conclusion is to draft a feature running back, that's a lot easier said than done. The story is that there are fewer and fewer feature running backs every year, and the data supports that to some extent.

There are fewer feature backs now compared to years ago. During the PFF era, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Matt Forte, Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy, LeVeon Bell And Ezekiel Elliott are the only running backs to play a starring role in at least half of their games in a season for five or more seasons. Elliott has not seen the role since 2021. Christian McCaffrey And Saquon Barkley are the only running backs to have accomplished this feat for multiple seasons and have a reasonable chance of doing so again.

Hers is the percentage of time a team has a feature back in a game, as well as a back playing all but third downs per season during the PFF era.

There seemed to be a clear shift from 2013-15, where there was a sharp decline in games as both a feature back and those who played everything but third downs. Interestingly enough, 2014 was the last season Frank Gore, Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch, Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster And Eddy Lacy were used in a leading role in at least 50% of their games. They had a combined 26 years as backups in the PFF era. Over the past nine seasons, only 10 running backs have starred for multiple seasons.

We haven't seen a significant uptick in the feature over the past nine seasons, but we have seen a steady increase in running backs playing everything but third downs since 2017. It will be interesting to see if those trends continue as Josh Jacobs, Joe Mixon AndDirk Hendrik they all changed teams while Jacobs and James Conner now have Day 2 rookie running backs as their competition.

This trend has led to a decline in the number of fantasy running backs over time. Of the six running backs who were feature backs last year, Tony Pollard changed teams and now faces significant competition from Tyjae Spears whileTravis Etienne Jr. consistently stopped playing the lead role in Week 11 and coach Doug Pederson has said again that he wants to reduce his playing timeThe other four running backs are from teams that spent a Round 4 pick or earlier on a running back in the 2024 NFL Draft. Christian McCaffrey is perhaps the only running back who is guaranteed to play a major role this season. It is understandable why McCaffrey is the 1.01 pick as zero running back strategies have become more popular.

Why draft a receiving back?

In general, playing a third-down running back in fantasy football is not useful to fantasy managers. Typically, only 20% of players who play the third-down role, but not the early-down role, will end up as a top-24 fantasy in a given week.

Ameer Abdullah, Michael Carter, Zach Charbonnet, Emari Demercado, Kenneth Gainwell, Antonio Gibson, Justice Hill, Roschon-Johnson, Joshua Kelley, Jerick McKinnon, Latavius ​​Murray, Samaje Perine, Tyjae Spears, Patrick Taylor Jr., Jaylen Warren And Trayveon Williams all fit this description for at least eight games last season. The only one to finish in the top 24 in fantasy points for more than a third of their matches was Jaylen Warrenwho achieved this in nine of the sixteen matches.

Warren has achieved this through increased playing time and usage across the board. He wasn't the first to return on early downs, on the goal line or in short yardage, but his playing time increased noticeably in each situation. He also received the ball more often when he was on the field, including a very high opportunity rate when he was on the field on first downs.

There have been 20 times where a receiving defenseman filled this role for at least eight games and finished at least half of their games as a fantasy starter. Jacobus White is the only running back to fill this role and achieve this level of success with any consistency.

This means that the only reason anyone should draft a receiving back is if there is a chance they get the early down role. Even if they take more snaps on early downs or take away two-minute drill snaps, they aren't worth starting most of the time unless they have that early down role.

Warren, Austin Thank youSpears, Charbonnet and Gibson are the running backs projected for the third-down role with an ADP in the top 60. They all have new offensive play-callers in 2024 and have proven productive in the past. Warren, Spears and Charbonnet could see expanded roles this year, while it’s unclear how large Ekeler and Gibson’s roles will be.

Players like Samaje Perine And Trayveon Williams are not worth it, even in the best ball leagues. The five players mentioned above would be clear fantasy starters if their main competition were to get injured. It's unlikely we'll see an increased role from players like Perine or Williams, even if the primary running back were to get injured.

What's next

Tomorrow, this data will be used to identify three backfields to target and three to avoid, based on how the offensive playcallers have historically used their running backs. Starting next week, this type of information will be used to create player profiles for all notable running backs. This season, the usage report will include a dig, noting the declining usage in each situation.