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This is the third time in the past year that the National Tsunami Warning Center – Times-Standard has left us
On July 28, the M8.2 earthquake struck a 100-mile spot along the Alaskan Aleutian subduction zone south of the Alaskan Peninsula. You may not have heard of the earthquake. It did no harm and deserves little media coverage. Not being harmless doesn’t mean it has no story to tell or lessons to learn, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) named it the Chignik earthquake of Mount Chignik, the peninsula’s closest geographic feature. It was in the same area as M7.8 on July 21, 2020, and 7.6 last October. These three earthquakes are part of a sequence. The M8.2 is now the main shock and the previous two earthquakes, the earthquakes. It is the largest earthquake on the Richter scale of 2021, narrowly outstripping the March 4 M8.1 in the Kermadec Islands. It is also the largest earthquake to occur in the United States since the M8.7 earthquake in the Rat Islands in 1965.
what did you do? The USGS estimates that 360,000 people in Alaska felt the quake, including in Greater Anchorage (500 miles away), and Onalaska in Aleutian 550 miles away.
Only the small communities of Perryville and Sand Point were close enough to the rupture to experience strong shaking. No major damage or injuries were reported.
What about a tsunami? M7 or greater earthquakes in Alaska are worth worrying about a tsunami. The National Tsunami Warning Center (NTWC) in Palmer, Alaska issued a tsunami warning six minutes after the earthquake. The initial warning bulletin put the coast of the Alaskan Peninsula, the eastern Utah, and the southern coast of Alaska in a warning category, noting that tsunami waves could arrive in less than 30 minutes.
The tsunami warning sirens sounded on Kodiak Island and emergency officials ordered the evacuation of harbors, harbors and low-lying areas in the warning zone. A small tsunami was observed – measuring 8 inches on Kodiak Island and 6 inches at Sand Point. The tsunami warning level was lowered to advisory about two hours later, meaning flooding was not expected but strong currents were possible on beaches and harbors. The National Tourism Board canceled the warning three hours after the earthquake.
The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center has issued bulletins for Hawaii and other areas of the Pacific. The first bulletin placed the Hawaiian Islands in the tsunami observatory. Monitoring means that the event is under evaluation and can become a warning if further analysis is required. This means that emergency officials must be on standby to call for evacuation if necessary. In this case, the analysis showed no significant threat, the clock was canceled a little over an hour later, and what about us and other areas of the West Coast of North America? We are lost in the shuffle. NTWC’s initial bulletin stated that our threat has been evaluated. The same statement is repeated in the next five posts. Three hours later, when Alaska’s alerts were called off, there was no mention of the West Coast at all and state OES officials had to contact the NTWC to get their assessment of no threat.
This is the third time in the last year that NTWC has left us drooping. Both 7.8 in July 2020 and 7.6 in October triggered alerts from the Warning Center and each time, California and other West Coast areas had to wait two hours or more in an “under evaluation” state. I was at a Zoom meeting with tsunami officials shortly after 7.6 and complained about the lack of response in time. I was told that we can assume there is no major concern for us because they did not put us in the threat category.
My answer was “what?” Are we supposed to guess the level of our threat by what is not in the official bulletin? Some of you might think this is cocky about something unimportant. not like that. In 1964 we learned that tsunamis from Alaska posed a threat to us. We also learned that time is of the essence. A safe and coordinated evacuation takes time – at least three hours. Personnel must be strategically located and everyone in the affected area must be reached – difficult in the day and even more difficult in the middle of the night. It’s time for our administrators to complain to NOAA and NTWC that we are not being served well.
And it turns out that maybe we had a threat after all. The day after the tsunami, I received an email from my good friend Donald Forrest. We have worked together on tsunami projects in the past and I have trained him to be aware of tsunami hazards. Donald had a fishing trip scheduled that morning and he honestly checked tsunami.gov to see if there were any alerts. None were published and weather conditions were good for crossing the strip outside Humboldt Bay. Quoting Donald, “I crossed the bar at 8:15 in the middle of a moderate tide. It was sloppy short and crosswise. Long blocks very close to each other from different directions… Lotsa chatter of old salt on the channel, worst crossing in memory “.
His comment was enough to make me look at the North Spit’s tide gauge – and here’s a beautiful recording of a tsunami that started around 3:30 a.m. and lasted for more than 24 hours. Peak amplitude was correct when Donald was heading out of the bay, between 7:30 and 10 am
We have now collected many pro accounts and hope to have many more. We were also able to obtain charts from instruments that measure currents that also show unusual signals in the channel. I’m not quite ready to conclude that the hazardous bar conditions were due to the tsunami. I am scholarly and open minded about looking for alternative explanations. If we exclude other causes, we need to understand what was so special that morning to amplify the currents. If the source of a tsunami is confirmed, this is something to include in alerts and even small tsunamis can pose a danger to sailors in Humboldt Bay.
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Sources 2/ https://www.times-standard.com/2021/08/08/lori-dengler-this-is-the-third-time-in-the-last-year-the-national-tsunami-warning-center-has-left-us-dangling/ The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article |
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