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Latest estimates suggest 6,200 deaths if massive earthquake hits Tokyo

Latest estimates suggest 6,200 deaths if massive earthquake hits Tokyo

 


In its first review of projected damage in 10 years, the Tokyo metropolitan government said up to 6,200 people could die in Tokyo if a massive earthquake struck directly beneath it.

She released the estimate on May 25.

The Disaster Prevention Committee of the metropolitan government drafted an estimate report, which looked at four scenarios.

The first is an earthquake directly under the southern city center of Tokyo. The second is a 7.3-magnitude earthquake that occurred just east of Tama, a suburb of Tokyo.

The third is a 7.4 magnitude earthquake that occurs within the Tachikawa fault zone.

The fourth is equivalent to the Great Kanto earthquake of magnitude 8, which occurred in 1923.

Each scenario was estimated to hit 6pm in the winter with a wind speed of 28.8 km/h, when the air is dry, and many people start fires.

In the first scenario, the epicenter of the earthquake would be near the southern part of Tokyo’s 23 wards.

About 60 percent of the 23 flanks, especially in the eastern and southwestern parts of the flanks, will hit with a seismic force of 6 upper.

In some areas in the Koto, Edogawa and Arakawa flanks, with rivers and bays nearby, earthquake intensity may be as high as 7.

It is estimated that about 6,200 people will die from the earthquake, 194,400 buildings will be damaged by the earthquake or from fires, and 4.53 million people will have difficulties returning home.

But the most recent damage estimate is lower than the estimate given by the metropolitan government in 2012.

In 2012 estimates, officials predicted that most of the damage would occur in a 7.3-magnitude earthquake in northern Tokyo Bay.

It is impossible to compare the two because the focus in each scenario is different.

However, the most recent estimate of the death toll is about 3,500 less than the 2012 estimate.

The most recent building damage estimate is about 109,900 buildings lower than the 2012 estimate.

The deficiency is more than 30 percent in both cases.

The metropolitan government said the latest projected damage is lower than the 2012 estimate because the earthquake resistance rate, which meets the current seismic standard, is 92 percent as of 2020, up 10.8 percentage points from the end of fiscal year 2010.

The government also said areas crowded with wooden buildings had been halved, and streets had become less flammable.

In the second scenario, a magnitude-6 earthquake would strike about 20 percent of the Tama area, including the cities of Mitaka, Higashi Kurumi, Kodaira, and Musashino.

It is the first time that the metropolitan government has done a damage estimate for this type of earthquake.

In the first two scenarios, the probability of each earthquake in the next 30 years occurring somewhere in the entire Minami Kantō region is 70 percent.

In the third scenario, the probability of an earthquake occurring in the next 30 years is between 0.5% and 2%.

The third scenario is a magnitude 7 earthquake, with violent tremors occurring in nine municipalities, such as Musashimurayama and Akishima, and an estimated death toll of about 1,500 people.

The number of deaths is about 1,100 fewer than estimates 10 years ago.

Trench-type earthquake in the fourth scenario is caused by shifting of two major tectonic plates. The odds of it happening in the next 30 years are estimated between 0 and 6 percent.

Asahi Shimbun

Sources

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2/ https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14629615

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