A volcano is erupting again in Iceland. Is climate change causing more explosions?

Iceland’s Fagradalsfjall volcano began erupting again on Wednesday after eight months of slumber – so far without any negative effects on people or air traffic.

The explosion was expected. It is in a seismically active (uninhabited) area, and it came after several days of seismic activity near the Earth’s surface. It’s hard to say how long it will last, although an eruption in the same area last year lasted about six months.

Climate change is causing widespread warming of our land, oceans and atmosphere. Apart from this, it also has the potential to increase volcanic activity, influence the size of eruptions, and alter the “cooling effect” that follows volcanic eruptions.

Any of these scenarios could have far-reaching consequences. However, we do not fully understand the effect that climate warming can have on volcanic activity.

Fagradalsfjall volcano is located about 30 km from the capital of Iceland, Reykjavik. cold volcanic regions

First, let’s take a look at the volcanic regions covered in ice. There is an ancient link between widespread melting of ice in active volcanic areas and increased volcanic eruptions.

Research on Iceland’s volcanic systems has identified a high period of activity associated with widespread thaw at the end of the last ice age. Average eruption rates were found to be up to 100 times higher after the end of the last glacial period, compared to the earlier, cooler glacial period. The eruptions were also smaller when the ice sheet was thicker.

But why is he this way? Well, as glaciers and ice sheets melt, the pressure from the Earth’s surface decreases and changes in the forces (stresses) that act on the rocks within the crust and upper mantle occur. This could lead to more molten rock, or “magma,” being produced in the mantle — which could fuel more volcanic eruptions.

Changes can also affect where and how magma is stored in the crust, and can make it easier for magma to reach the surface.

Magma generation is already increasing under Iceland due to a warming climate and melting glaciers.

The intense eruption of Iceland’s ash-producing Eyjafjallajökull volcano in 2010 was the result of an explosive reaction between hot magma and cold glacial meltwater. Based on what we know from the past, increased ice melt in Iceland could lead to larger and more frequent volcanic eruptions.

Eyjafjallajokull is an active volcano covered by an ice cap. In 2010, a volcanic eruption grounded flights across Europe. The eruption of the volcano Arnar Thorison / SP

But what about volcanic regions not covered by ice – could they also be affected by global warming?

Probably. We know that climate change is increasing the intensity of storms and other weather events in many parts of the world. These weather events may lead to more volcanic eruptions.

On December 6, 2021, the eruption of Mount Semeru, one of Indonesia’s most active volcanoes, caused ashfalls, lava flows, and eruptive mudflows (called “lahar”) that killed at least 50 people.

Semeru’s eruption left nearby villages covered in ash – forcing residents to flee. Antara TV / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY

The local authorities did not anticipate the size of the explosion. As for the cause, they said, several days of heavy rain destabilized the lava dome in the volcano’s summit crater. This caused the dome to collapse, reducing pressure on the magma below and causing the volcano to erupt.

Volcanic disturbance signals are usually obtained from changes in volcanic systems (eg earthquake activity), changes in gas emissions from the volcano, or small changes in the shape of the volcano (which can be detected by ground-based or satellite observations).

Predicting eruptions is already an incredibly complex task. It will become more difficult as we begin to deal with the risks posed by severe weather that can destabilize parts of the volcano.

Read more: Mount Semeru’s deadly eruption was caused by rain and storms, making it even more difficult to predict.

Some scientists suspect that increased rainfall led to the devastating 2018 Kīlauea eruption in Hawaii. This was preceded by months of torrential rains that crept into the ground and increased the pressure of the groundwater inside the porous rocks. They believe this may weaken and fracture the rock, facilitating the movement of magma and causing the eruption of the volcano.

But other experts disagree, and say there is no intrinsic link between the rainfall events and eruptions at Kīlauea volcano.

Rain-affected volcanoes have also been suggested at other volcanoes around the world, such as the Soufriere Hills volcano in the Caribbean, and the Piton de la Fournaise on Reunion Island in the Indian Ocean.

Changes to the “cooling effect”

There is another layer that we cannot ignore when it comes to assessing the potential link between climate change and volcanic activity. This means that volcanoes themselves can affect the climate.

A volcanic eruption can either lead to cooling or warming, depending on the geographical location of the volcano, the amount and composition of ash and gas that erupted, and how high the cloud plume is in the atmosphere.

Volcanic injections that were rich in sulfur dioxide gas had the strongest climatic effect ever recorded in historical times. Sulfur dioxide eventually condenses to form sulfate mists in the stratosphere—and these aerosols reduce the amount of heat that reaches the Earth’s surface, causing cooling.

As the climate warms, research shows this will change how volcanic gases interact with the atmosphere. Most importantly, the result will not be the same for all bangs. Some scenarios show that in a warmer atmosphere, small and medium-sized eruptions can reduce the cooling effect of volcanic plumes by up to 75%.

These scenarios assume that the ‘tropopause’ (the boundary between the troposphere and stratosphere) will increase in height as the atmosphere warms. But because the eruption plume will remain the same, it is unlikely that the plume carrying sulfur dioxide will reach the upper atmosphere – where it will have the greatest impact on the climate.

On the other hand, more powerful but less frequent volcanic eruptions can produce a greater cooling effect. That’s because as the atmosphere warms, plumes of ash and gas from powerful volcanic eruptions are expected to rise higher into the atmosphere, spreading rapidly from the tropics to higher latitudes.

One recent study suggested that the large volcanic eruption in Hong Kong-Hong Hapai in January may contribute to global warming, by pumping massive amounts of water vapor (a greenhouse gas) into the stratosphere.

Read more: How a volcanic bombardment in ancient Australia led to the world’s largest climate disaster

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