More severe weather could cause “swarms” of earthquakes globally, a new study suggests

When determining the cause of an earthquake, it makes sense to look underground—years of research point to tectonic plates and faults as the main cause. But should we really look at the sky?

That's what scientists from MIT are now proposing, claiming that increased snowfall and heavy rain associated with climate change could increasingly contribute to earthquakes around the world.

The researchers reached these conclusions based on how weather patterns in northern Japan appeared to have contributed to a new earthquake “swarm” — a pattern of multiple, persistent earthquakes — that is believed to have begun in 2020.

“We see that snowfall and other environmental loading at the surface affects the underground stress state, and the timing of intense precipitation events correlates well with the onset [the earthquake swarm in Japan]said study author Dr. William Frank, assistant professor in the Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences at MIT.

“So, climate clearly has an impact on the response of solid Earth, and part of that response is earthquakes.”

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The research, published in the journal Science Advances, looked at seismic activity in Japan's Noto Peninsula — an area hit by hundreds of earthquakes in recent years, including a 7.6-magnitude quake in January 2024.

The MIT team, along with colleagues in Japan, tried to identify patterns that could explain these regular earthquakes. They found that while earthquakes before 2020 seemed sporadic and unrelated, earthquakes after that year were strongly linked to weather conditions.

“We can see that the timing of these earthquakes corresponds very well with several times when we see heavy snowfall,” Frank said. “It correlates well with earthquake activity. We believe there is a physical link between the two.”

It's thought that snow and rainwater can affect underground “pore fluid pressure,” which is the amount of pressure exerted by fluids within cracks in the ground within the rock. This, in turn, can have a significant impact on how quickly seismic waves travel underground.

While the study took place in Japan, the team believes that climate change could have a major impact on the planet's earthquakes in the near future.

“If we are moving toward a changing climate, with more extreme precipitation events, and we expect a redistribution of water in the atmosphere, oceans and continents, that will change how the Earth's crust is loaded,” Frank said. “It will definitely have an impact.”

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