Increased earthquakes in the upper eastern fault zone

(BIVN) – Kilauea volcano has not erupted and the USGS volcanic alert level is advisory.

Scientists are reporting a moderate increase in activity on the Hawaiian Island volcano, with increased earthquakes and swelling in the summit and upper rift zone. The activity has continued since the end of the eruption on June 3 in the upper southwest rift zone.

UPDATE – (8:15 a.m.) – In an update Friday, the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory reported that “nearly 170 earthquakes were detected below the summit in the past 24 hours, most of them below the southern caldera at depths of 1.5-3 km (1-1.8 miles).”

“Yesterday afternoon, a magnitude 2.9 earthquake occurred at 3:32 p.m., followed three minutes later by a magnitude 3.4 event at 3:35 p.m. Both occurred in the East Rift Connector, southeast of Kalaupale (Kilauea caldera), and were reported felt by volcano residents. These events triggered a wave of increased seismic activity that lasted for about 90 minutes, but earthquake rates subsequently returned to previous levels and no associated volcanic changes were detected,” the scientists added.

An interactive map on the USGS HVO website shows that as of Friday morning, the highest concentration of earthquakes (large enough to map) is occurring in the Upper East Rift Zone.

The USGS HVO site on Thursday recorded its highest number of daily earthquakes in more than a week. That number could be surpassed on Friday, if the current surge in earthquake activity continues.

Top Top: Number of earthquakes per day over the past week (blue bars). Red line is cumulative moment (energy) release. Bottom: Depth of earthquakes over the past week in the area shown on the map above. Depth is reported relative to sea level, which is equivalent to zero depth on the plot above. In both figures, the size of the circle represents magnitude, and the color indicates depth. (USGS charts)

As of Friday morning, no closures have been reported within Hawaii Volcanoes National Park due to the somewhat elevated behavior. Scientists say increases in seismic activity and/or deformation “may lead to a new eruption within or near the summit area.”

From Thursday's update provided by USGS HVO:

Summit and upper fault zone observations: Nearly 90 sub-summit earthquakes have been detected over the past 24 hours, most of them below the southern caldera at depths of 1.5–3 km (1–1.8 mi). The largest event was magnitude 2.3, although most events were magnitude 2.0 or less. Ground deformation rates at the summit have remained constant over the past day: clinometers at Uēkahuna northwest of the summit and at Sand Hill southwest of the summit respectively recorded approximately 5 and 3 microradians of inflation over the past 24 hours. The most recent measurement of the sulfur dioxide emission rate from the summit was about 50 tons per day on June 10, 2024; Thus, total SO2 emissions from the summit and site of the recent eruption are likely to be less than 200 tons per day.

Middle and Lower Fault Zone Observations: Seismicity and ground deformation rates under the Middle and Lower East Fault Zone and the Lower Southwest Fault Zone remain low. Recent volcanic activity and ongoing unrest have been limited to the summit and upper rift zones. Measurements from continuous gas monitoring stations downwind of Puʻuʻōʻō in the East Central Rift Zone – the site of 1983-2018 volcanic activity – remain below sulfur dioxide detection limits, indicating that sulfur dioxide emissions from Puʻuʻōʻō are negligible.

A USGS HVO webcam shows Mount Halemaʻumaʻu on top of Mount Kīlauea. Mauna Loa can be seen in the distance.

Analysis: Following the June 3 eruption, magma re-pressurized the storage system beneath Halema'uma'u and the southern caldera, triggering seismic activity in the upper East Rift Zone and in the caldera south of Halema'uma'u. At this time, it is not possible to say whether this increase in activity will lead to an intrusion or eruption in the near future, or simply continue as seismic disturbances at depth. Changes in the nature and location of disturbances can occur quickly, as can the likelihood of eruption, but there are no signs of an imminent eruption at this time.

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