West Coast faces 'worst-case scenario' from 'large' earthquake study

A recent study suggests that the simultaneous rupture of two major fault systems on the west coast of North America could pose a seismic threat beyond the long-feared “major threat.”

Why does it matter?

The term “major earthquake” describes a potentially massive earthquake expected to strike along the San Andreas Fault, one of California's most important fault lines.

According to research by Chris Goldfinger, a marine geologist at Oregon State University, the Cascadia Subduction Zone and the San Andreas Fault can be synchronized, meaning earthquakes on one fault can trigger seismic events on the other side.

What do you know?

The study, based on analysis of deep-sea sediments spanning more than 3,000 years, found similarities in the timing and structure of earthquake-triggered deposits known as turbidites that indicate a pattern of events with close timing, according to a statement from the university.

By comparing the turbidite layers, the researchers found structural and timing similarities. In three cases over the past 1,500 years, researchers believe rifting on the Cascadia Subduction Zone and the San Andreas Fault occurred only minutes to hours apart.

“We can expect that an earthquake on one fault alone would exhaust the entire country's resources to respond,” Goldfinger said. “And if they both exploded together, you would probably have San Francisco. Portland, Seattle and Vancouver are all in an emergency in a compressed time frame.”

Goldfinger told Newsweek that the paper's suggestion about the immediate timing of the events is based on the close stacking of sedimentary deposits, with very little uncertainty, unlike pure radiocarbon evidence, which has a great deal of uncertainty.

Speaking to Newsweek, Goldfinger said: “If Cascadia experiences an earthquake, it could serve as a natural warning system for northern San Andreas. The majority of Cascadia events have been closely followed by San Andreas, so I would rate the probability of this occurring as high.”

“I also think we have to take into account that if this were to happen, the resources needed to respond to it at the regional level would be roughly double the resources required for either error alone. So the previous worst-case scenario that was planned for is likely no longer the worst-case scenario.”

What people say

“We're used to hearing 'the big thing' — Cascadia — is this huge, catastrophic thing,” Chris Goldfinger, a marine geologist at Oregon State University and lead author of the study, said in a statement released by the university.

“It turns out that's not the worst case scenario.”

What happens next

Goldfinger said the next step is to collect more evidence from the sites of the San Andreas earthquake.

“We now have a site in Lake Merced that covers the last 200 years in San Francisco,” the researcher said.

“So that will help, and I hope others will follow up and put forward other records to independently verify (or not) what we are proposing.”

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