New research highlights the possibility of a major earthquake in the Indonesian capital

The Jakarta Fault runs beneath the southern part of the Indonesian capital, Jakarta. Jakarta is one of the largest cities in the world, with a population exceeding 30 million people in the metropolitan area. New research by BGS and its Indonesian colleagues shows that this fault could generate a 6.5-magnitude earthquake, potentially exposing a large number of people as well as critical economic infrastructure to powerful earthquakes.

Between 2019 and 2023, Indonesian scientists from the Bandung Technological Institute (ITB), the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) and the Geospatial Information Agency (BIG) collected ground motion data across the Jakarta Fault from a dense network of global navigation satellite systems (GNSS). These measurements revealed slow, millimeter-sized changes in ground motion occurring across the fault, indicating a buildup of energy that would need to be released, perhaps in a future earthquake.

Geophysical modeling shows that ground motion is accumulating on the fault at a rate of 3.2 mm per year, with the fault locked or “stuck” to a depth of at least 7.2 km. This buildup has been happening for at least 210 years, which means that releasing it completely now would cause a 6.5-magnitude earthquake.

While earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 are not uncommon in Indonesia, they mostly occur under the ocean. The danger here is that the earthquake could occur in the middle of a densely populated area like Jakarta, which means a much higher level of risk to life and infrastructure.

Dr. Iqbal Hussain, a remote sensing geoscientist at BGS and co-leader of the research.

The Jakarta Fault is a relatively recently recognized large tectonic fault on the Indonesian island of Java. It is part of a broader rift system that extends across most of Java, which, with a population of 157 million, is the most densely populated island on Earth. Geophysical surveys conducted by BGS in the 1970s and 1980s, in collaboration with the Indonesian Geological Research and Development Centre, helped identify this major tectonic structure for the first time, but its seismic potential has remained unclear until now.

Ground motions across the Jakarta Fault are modeled to estimate the rate of energy storage (slip rate) on the fault. Source: Gunawan et al., 2025.

This research forms part of the UK-Indonesia strategic research partnerships on geohazard solutions, as outlined in the recently published white paper, UK-Indonesia Partnerships to Develop Geohazard Science for Disaster Risk Assessment in Indonesia. This paper, co-developed by key risk experts in Indonesia and the UK, provides a strategic roadmap for significantly reducing the impacts of geohazards in the country. Most importantly, it highlights the power of scientific partnerships between the UK and Indonesia in delivering the best science on disaster resilience.

More information

Access the full paper: GNSS constraints on the Jakarta fault, Indonesia: resolving slip rate and seismic hazard probability

Finance

This work is funded by the UKRI National Capability Geoscience Tackling Global Environmental Challenges programme. BGS and the Indonesian researchers involved in this study continue their engagement with local government to address the risk challenges raised in this work.

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