“A political earthquake and a rift in pro-Israel hegemony”

In the midst of tense relations with the West, Iran is seeking to redefine its international status and the rules of dealing with Washington. Instead of a “reactive position” that responds to pressure, a new perception is being built – that of the “demanding side,” the side that initiates, sets the conditions, and dictates the red lines.

This step reflects a profound shift in Iranian strategy, which combines a firm stance on the nuclear issue, careful management of the tense economy, and a broad cognitive struggle against the United States and Israel. At the same time, rhetoric in Tehran links global conflicts to political changes in the United States, viewing them as evidence of the erosion of Western hegemony.

New rules of the game: from defense to demand

In the political discourse in Tehran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s statements are not seen as statements to close doors, but rather as “a redefinition of the diplomatic track with America.” Analysts such as Yasser Ashmi Rafsanjani (an intellectual and political commentator) and Hassan Khanizadeh (a journalist and conservative analyst) point to a “strategic shift” in which Iran moves from a defensive position to that of the “demanding party.”

In a speech he delivered on the occasion of the 13th Aban Day (also known as the “Day of Struggle Against Global Arrogance”), Khamenei said: “The difference between the Islamic Republic and America is a fundamental difference, not a tactical one. It is a confrontation between two opposing trends – America and Islam.” He added: “The American request for negotiations repeats itself, but we know that its goal is coercion, not understanding.”

The leadership does not rule out dialogue with the United States, but it changes the balance: if Washington has a list of demands, “Tehran also has its strategic list on the table.”

Preconditions and red lines

Tehran sets three explicit conditions written not as direct demands for negotiations but for “relations and cooperation”: an end to US support for Israel; Withdrawal of American bases from the region; And ending American political and security interference in countries of the region.

Setting these conditions is considered acceptance of the principle of cooperation, but the disagreement is over the framework alone.

Meanwhile, Deputy Foreign Minister Sayyed Abbas Araghchi stressed that “nuclear negotiations are just nuclear negotiations.” As for the issue of missiles and regional presence, which Tehran considers “pillars of national security and deterrence,” it is not on the negotiating table.

In a conversation with French President Emmanuel Macron, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stressed that Iran accepts the possibility of dialogue, but “the United States and Europe must prove their sincerity and gain the trust of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” because “force and coercion do not solve the problem, but rather exacerbate conflict and hostility.”

The Nuclear Issue and the IAEA: Inspections, Damage, and the Uranium Conundrum

In the background, tensions with the International Atomic Energy Agency continue. Director General Rafael Grossi points out that “several inspections have been carried out in Iran since the Iran-Israel war in June last year,” but the IAEA “is still unable to access the most important nuclear facilities.” He mentioned Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, saying that they had been bombed by the United States, claiming that “serious damage” had been caused.

Concerns center around the nuclear stockpile: “deep concern” regarding 408 kilograms of highly enriched uranium, the fate of which has become “unclear,” in addition to the call addressed to Iran to “increase cooperation,” and the clarification that one cannot say that “Iran remains within the treaty, and after that it will implement its obligations.”

In response, Tehran appealed to the UN Security Council and the UN Secretary-General to demand “an urgent investigation into the American plan to showcase its capabilities in the field of nuclear weapons,” and described the American statements as a “serious threat” to peace.

Economy: between inflation, domestic production, the gas crisis, and the digital crisis

President Pezeshkian acknowledged that “the uncontrolled expansion of the government's administrative structure” is a major factor in inflation, and called for strengthening administrative capacities and “consumption management.”

The gap between macroeconomic data and “the burdensome reality of the cost of living” is growing: inflation is “approaching 49%,” and “more than 35%” of citizens are below the poverty line. In the 2025 budget, wages for high-income earners and large families were increased by up to 40%, but unemployment among university graduates aged 40 or younger remained above 52%.

Production looks bleak: planning is hampered by stagnant raw materials and equipment in foreign exchange allocations, instability in management coupled with sanctions imposed on workers. Although senior officials stress that there are “no signs of a decline in oil revenues,” structural problems are eroding sovereign capital. At the same time, warnings of gas shortages are increasing during the winter.

Analyst Hamid Reza Zalahi warns of a “severe imbalance in the gas sector” and calls for increasing the switch to electricity and reducing household gas consumption. The digital economy, known globally as an investment magnet, is “stagnating” due to government interference and incorrect pricing. “State intervention has made the field of creativity unattractive and caused capital flight and a slowdown in entrepreneurship,” says Ehsan Chitsaz, deputy director general for policy and planning affairs at Iran’s Ministry of Communications and Information Technology, suggesting “not leadership, but empowerment.”

Regional pressures and the “corridor” program.

In the Lebanese arena, foreign networks reported that US envoy Thomas Barrack gave Lebanon a “short deadline” to take action regarding dismantling Hezbollah’s weapons, while Israel is preparing for “a new war.” The message was conveyed to Lebanese President Joseph Aoun bluntly: “Close the tube and say: Let us end this ridiculous game.”

Regarding the Gaza front, Iranian media claim that there is an American proposal to establish an international force by the end of 2027 to supervise the borders and disarm “Palestinian resistance factions,” while Hamas asserts that “any security force in the Gaza Strip must be Palestinian,” and considers the plan a “complete rejection of the idea of ​​an occupying military force.” In this context, South African Judge Navanethem Pillay, who is leading the UN investigation against Israel in the war, was quoted as saying that “Israel deliberately killed 4,000 unborn children…” and attacked the “neonatal ward” at Al Basma Hospital, as another result of “genocide.”

In addition to current affairs, Iranian analyzes present the “Kiryat Shmona Corridor” as a revival of the vision of “Greater Israel”: a land corridor from “northern occupied Palestine” through the Golan and southern Syria eastward to “Kirkuk and the Euphrates,” aiming to connect to oil resources and influence projects, and it is part of the ideas of various plans that disintegrate countries along ethnic and religious grounds.

Internal power struggles and cognitive war

On the internal Iranian scene, and in the wake of the Zanjani-Tabatabai case, the Iranian media is focusing mainly on the battles of corruption and money laundering. According to local journalists, this case shows how “corruption files still constitute a platform for political and partisan disputes.” The public confrontation, from parliamentary lawsuits to MPs being labeled “children” or “big thieves,” is further eroding public confidence in the regime’s ability to deal with corruption.

At the same time, a published analysis of imperialism warns of Washington's “hidden struggle of psychological warfare”: “psychological operations and engineering of consciousness” via media celebrities with “suppressed faces, emotional voice and image”, aimed at “conquering consciousness and emotions” and legitimizing external intervention.

New York elections reverberate in Tehran

Zoran Mamdani's victory and rise to the position of mayor of New York is interpreted in Iran as a “change in direction” that undermines the international legitimacy of the “Jewish state.”

The Israeli media responded with “anger and concern.” For example, Yedioth Ahronoth warned of the fall of New York as “the greatest safe haven for Jews,” and Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu accused Mamdani’s Jewish supporters of “raising their hands to support anti-Semitism in the heart of America.”

Mamdani himself took the stage to direct his arrows at US President Donald Trump, and declared: “The future is in our city (New York), which was built by immigrants, led by immigrants, and from tonight it is led by immigrants,” stressing his belonging to “the working class, not the 1 percent.”

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