A powerful earthquake could hit Israel within a decade

As if the Israelis didn’t have enough to worry about Covid-19 and the threats from enemies like Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas, Israeli researchers are now warning that a devastating earthquake measuring at least 6.5 on the Richter scale is expected to hit the region in the coming years.

This dire prediction comes from drilling in the Dead Sea to analyze about 220,000 years of underwater geology.

According to the researchers’ analysis, a strong earthquake occurs every 130 to 150 years, although there are lulls of only a few decades between earthquakes.

In 1927, an earthquake in the Dead Sea Valley measuring 6.5 on the Richter scale injured hundreds of people in neighboring Amman and Jerusalem and as far away as Jaffa.

Professor Shmuel Marco of the Porter School of Environment and Geosciences. Photo courtesy of Tel Aviv University

The team led by Professor Shmuel Marco, President of the Porter School of Environment and Geosciences at Tel Aviv University, says the possibility of a similar tremor is very likely during our lifetime.

Joined by Marco Yin Lu (Postdoctoral Researcher at TAU), Professor Amotz Agnon (Hebrew University), Nicholas Waldman (University of Haifa), Nadav Wetzler (Israel Geological Survey), and Glenn Biasi (United States Geological Survey).

The results of the study have been published in the journal Science Advances.

The research was conducted under the auspices of the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program, which set up a drilling rig in the middle of the Dead Sea in 2010 to study its history and environmental changes.

An earthquake disturbance has been observed in the Dead Sea sediments at the core of the craters. Photo courtesy of Tel Aviv University

The sediments on the floor of the Dead Sea accumulate in two ways: a darker layer from winter floods and a lighter layer from summer evaporation. When the tremor strikes, the two layers rotate together and settle in a different order.

The researchers developed computational models specifically for the study to reconstruct the geological record of earthquake history over time. This revealed that severe earthquakes – 7.5 or higher on the Richter scale – occur every 1,300 to 1,400 years. The last of them struck the Dead Sea region in 1033, nearly a thousand years ago.

Although forecasting earthquakes is a badly imprecise science, the team concluded that the frequency of earthquakes in Israel has been greatly underestimated.

Marko explains: “I don’t want to be alarmed, but we are living in a tectonically active period. The geological record does not lie and there will be a big earthquake in Israel.

“Of course, we don’t have a way to predict exactly when the ground under our feet will shake – that’s a statistical projection – but unfortunately, I can say that an earthquake that will cause hundreds of casualties will strike in the coming years. It might take 10 years or several decades, but it could be next week.” Also, we need to be constantly prepared for that. “

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