Megamodels: Chile’s insurance sector is getting tough

Massive prehistoric earthquakes in Chile can provide information on risk models for the natural disaster insurance industry.

Written by Madeline Dahm, science writer (MadelineDahm)

Citation: Dahm, M., 2021, Megamodels: Chile’s Insurance Sector in Chile, Temblor, http://doi.org/10.32858/temblor.172

Photo taken of a destroyed factory near Corral, Chile, after a tsunami caused by the 1960 Valdivia earthquake. Credit: Buonasera, Wikipedia Commons

In 1960, Chile was hit by an earthquake that shook the region for about ten minutes. The Valdivia earthquake, as it was eventually called, triggered a tsunami with waves over 38 feet (12 meters) that devastated parts of the Chilean coast. As the host nation for the strongest earthquake ever recorded – measuring between 9.4 and 9.6 magnitude – South America, and Chile in particular, is what seismologists often refer to as a “natural laboratory” for seismology.

In new research presented at the annual meeting of the European Geosciences Federation (EGU) today, Jochen Wisner, a seismologist at RMS Inc. And his colleagues launch a new model that estimates earthquake hazards on buildings in Chile, Ecuador, Colombia and Peru. Using a wealth of newly available data for this seismically active region, the team created a frequency interval model for earthquakes.

How to make the largest earthquakes in the world

When two tectonic plates meet and one dense subsides under the other, geologists call these boundaries the subduction zone. Sometimes, friction can lock the subduction zone in place, causing pressure to build up as the plates continue to move toward each other over time. Massive earthquakes – the strongest in the world – occur when this pressure is released by the sudden and catastrophic rupture of previously suspended fragile rocks. The Valdivia earthquake ranks among the tremendous tremors, which are estimated to be stronger than the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake and the 2011 Tohoku earthquake in Japan.

Many people in Chile, Peru, Ecuador and Colombia suffer significant seismic hazards due to their proximity to the active subduction zone of the Andes, where the Nazca Plate sinks below the South American plate. Five of the 20 largest earthquakes in recorded history occurred along the plate boundaries. With proper scientific knowledge, oversight over insurance policies and strategies, risks can be mitigated to a certain degree. However, recent seismic data collected over the past 100 years are insufficient to assess long-term earthquake risks because massive earthquake crusts in this region tend to occur roughly every 300 years, says Kathleen Willis, a seismologist at Ghent University. Seismic data alone do not go far back in time. Scientists need a detailed record of earthquakes dating back to prehistoric times.

A figure from Woessner’s research shows the repeat time interval of a potential earthquake for southern Chile, a 1,500-kilometer portion of the subduction zone at risk of a massive event. They assume that earthquakes will not tear parts of the subduction zone. Credit: Woessner et al. 2021

Missing earthquake pieces

Although creating risk assessment models for the insurance industry is not new in and of itself, the Woessner team at RMS uses a dataset. In a 2020 study led by Welles, a PhD student at time of publication, she and her colleagues provide missing pieces in the puzzle of the modern and ancient seismic history of Chile.

Wils combined all available seismic data from the southern Chilean coast with a new data set from the country’s far south, creating a more complete record of earthquake history in the region. Wells and her colleagues identified ancient earthquakes in an ancient seismic record – an earthquake record that was traced in rocks and soil before modern seismic instruments. The intensity of many past earthquakes appeared to be similar to the large size of the 1960 earthquake, with smaller events scattered throughout the record.

Aysén Fjord, where Wils conducted her study of ancient earthquakes. “You can see one of the major scars of landslides surrounding the fjord, which were caused by a local (not massive) earthquake in 2007,” said Wells. Credit: Xavier Rayo (2013)

Wells showed that these incredibly massive and destructive earthquakes tend to occur every 321 years – more or less 116 years – along this portion of the plate boundary. This may be a relief to those who live in the area. However, smaller earthquakes occurring between giant crusts also carry a punch.

Juan Carlos de la Leira, dean and professor of structural and geotechnical engineering at Pontificia Catholic University in Chile, explained that large earthquakes in Chile occur at least once every 25 to 30 years. Even in the past 15 years alone, three devastating earthquakes of magnitude 8.2 or higher have struck Chilean regions near Molly, Iquique and Elabel, causing irreparable damage and loss of life.

Damage to the entire country from the 2010 Maule earthquake cost Chile around $ 30 billion. This photo of a building was taken in Concepcion shortly after the earthquake. Image credit: Claudio Nunez, Wikimedia Commons

Use the past to predict the future

Woessner and his team at RMS update their seismic risk models every few years for different regions around the world. As new data emerge, these models more accurately reflect the current state of knowledge. The latest RMS model for western South America – thanks in part to Wils’ new study – now contains the most complete and current dataset available, covering the seismically active west coast of South America.

The RMS model calculates the annual probable occurrence of earthquakes greater than or equal to 5.0 along the subduction zone. These incidence rates are the primary component of estimating future financial losses. Woessner and colleagues focused on both the damage and financial losses a single-family dwelling would incur in the event of an earthquake of magnitude 5.0 or greater. Thus, our group transfers the latest knowledge and scientific research into a product that enables insurance companies to set insurance rates [for earthquakes]Fossner said.

“On average, the cost of earthquakes and other natural hazards in Chile is about 1.2% of the country’s annual GDP,” said de la Lira. Combining Wils’s paleoseism data with Woessner’s new model means that policymakers and insurance providers will have an updated and localized picture of the risks that large and small earthquakes pose to buildings and infrastructure in Chile.

References

Woessner, J., Velasquez, J., Nyst, M., Fitzenz, D., & Eads, L. (2021). Repeating events of the Giant Trust: Impact on Hazards and Threats in South America (No. EGU21-7112). Copernicus Meetings.

Wils, K., Van Daele, M., Kissel, C., Moernaut, J., Schmidt, S., Siani, G., & Lastras, G. (2020). Seismo – Turbidites in Aysén Fjord (Southern Chile) reveal a complex pattern of rupture modes along the 1960 Megathrust seismic segment. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 125 (9), e2020JB019405.

What Are The Main Benefits Of Comparing Car Insurance Quotes Online

LOS ANGELES, CA / ACCESSWIRE / June 24, 2020, / Compare-autoinsurance.Org has launched a new blog post that presents the main benefits of comparing multiple car insurance quotes. For more info and free online quotes, please visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/the-advantages-of-comparing-prices-with-car-insurance-quotes-online/ The modern society has numerous technological advantages. One important advantage is the speed at which information is sent and received. With the help of the internet, the shopping habits of many persons have drastically changed. The car insurance industry hasn't remained untouched by these changes. On the internet, drivers can compare insurance prices and find out which sellers have the best offers. View photos The advantages of comparing online car insurance quotes are the following: Online quotes can be obtained from anywhere and at any time. Unlike physical insurance agencies, websites don't have a specific schedule and they are available at any time. Drivers that have busy working schedules, can compare quotes from anywhere and at any time, even at midnight. Multiple choices. Almost all insurance providers, no matter if they are well-known brands or just local insurers, have an online presence. Online quotes will allow policyholders the chance to discover multiple insurance companies and check their prices. Drivers are no longer required to get quotes from just a few known insurance companies. Also, local and regional insurers can provide lower insurance rates for the same services. Accurate insurance estimates. Online quotes can only be accurate if the customers provide accurate and real info about their car models and driving history. Lying about past driving incidents can make the price estimates to be lower, but when dealing with an insurance company lying to them is useless. Usually, insurance companies will do research about a potential customer before granting him coverage. Online quotes can be sorted easily. Although drivers are recommended to not choose a policy just based on its price, drivers can easily sort quotes by insurance price. Using brokerage websites will allow drivers to get quotes from multiple insurers, thus making the comparison faster and easier. For additional info, money-saving tips, and free car insurance quotes, visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ Compare-autoinsurance.Org is an online provider of life, home, health, and auto insurance quotes. This website is unique because it does not simply stick to one kind of insurance provider, but brings the clients the best deals from many different online insurance carriers. In this way, clients have access to offers from multiple carriers all in one place: this website. On this site, customers have access to quotes for insurance plans from various agencies, such as local or nationwide agencies, brand names insurance companies, etc. "Online quotes can easily help drivers obtain better car insurance deals. All they have to do is to complete an online form with accurate and real info, then compare prices", said Russell Rabichev, Marketing Director of Internet Marketing Company. CONTACT: Company Name: Internet Marketing CompanyPerson for contact Name: Gurgu CPhone Number: (818) 359-3898Email: [email protected]: https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ SOURCE: Compare-autoinsurance.Org View source version on accesswire.Com:https://www.Accesswire.Com/595055/What-Are-The-Main-Benefits-Of-Comparing-Car-Insurance-Quotes-Online View photos